Why Rigetti Computing Stock Could Plunge in 2026

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) has emerged as an early leader in quantum computing, capturing investor excitement with its vertically integrated approach. Yet despite the hype, the stock’s sky-high valuation and minimal revenue raise serious concerns. Here’s why Rigetti shares could face significant downside in 2026.

(Sources: X)

• Rigetti’s market cap stands at ~$8.5 billion despite generating just $5.2 million in revenue over the first three quarters of 2025.
• The stock trades at a staggering P/S ratio of ~1,010—far exceeding even high-growth peers like Palantir (127) or Nvidia (24).
• Ongoing losses ($198 million GAAP net loss in 9 months) and limited commercialization timeline increase risk.

Rigetti’s Quantum Leadership Comes with Caveats

Founded in 2013, Rigetti distinguishes itself through in-house chip fabrication, its Quil programming language, and a cloud platform for renting quantum capacity.

The company’s flagship Cepheus-1-36Q system achieved 99.5% fidelity, and plans call for a 1,000+ qubit system by 2027 targeting 99.8% fidelity.

These technical milestones position Rigetti as a frontrunner in the race toward practical quantum computing—capable of solving complex problems in science, cryptography, and optimization far beyond classical computers.

However, current systems remain error-prone and limited in real-world utility, delaying meaningful revenue.

Revenue Drought Amid Soaring Valuation

Rigetti reported only $5.2 million in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025—down 39% year-over-year.

Recent purchase orders for two systems (~$5.7 million revenue expected H1 2026) offer modest growth, but operating expenses continue rising, driving deep losses.

With ~$600 million in cash reserves, runway extends into the medium term—but scaling commercialization remains years away.

The core issue: an $8.5 billion valuation on negligible sales yields an unsustainable P/S ratio of ~1,010.

Even adjusting for growth potential, this premium dwarfs comparable high-flyers and leaves little margin for error.

Why 2026 Could Bring Sharp Correction

Historical patterns show speculative tech stocks often correct when fundamentals lag hype.

Rigetti is already down 53% from its October peak. Matching Palantir’s P/S would require an ~87% further decline—illustrating the valuation disconnect.

Without near-term revenue inflection or broader quantum adoption, continued selling pressure from profit-taking and risk reduction appears likely.

Macro headwinds (potential rate uncertainty, tech sector rotation) could exacerbate downside.

Broader Context: Quantum Promise vs. Present Reality

Quantum computing holds transformative potential, but practical, error-corrected systems remain distant.

Rigetti’s technical progress is genuine, yet bridging lab achievements to commercial scale requires time, capital, and proven demand—factors not yet reflected in current pricing.

Investors chasing the “next big thing” face classic risk: paying peak valuations for future breakthroughs that may arrive later than expected.

Conclusion: High Risk, Limited Near-Term Reward

Rigetti embodies quantum computing’s excitement but also its speculative nature.

With minimal revenue, mounting losses, and an extreme valuation, the stock appears vulnerable to substantial correction in 2026—particularly if commercialization timelines extend or broader markets cool.

While long-term believers may see opportunity in volatility, near-term downside risks dominate the outlook.

Investors should approach with caution, recognizing that quantum’s revolution remains years away despite undeniable progress.