Coinbase's diversified business layout receives recognition! Goldman Sachs is bullish and recommends "Buy" with a target price of $303

Goldman Sachs, a Wall Street investment bank, released its 2026 industry outlook report, officially upgrading Coinbase (NYSE: COIN) from a “Neutral” to a “Buy” rating. Goldman believes that, with Coinbase’s recent series of new product launches and the gradual shift of its revenue structure toward more “infrastructure-like” businesses, the company’s growth prospects are more optimistic; however, in the short term, it remains difficult to avoid profit pressure from intensified competition and increased sensitivity to interest rates.

Goldman also set a target price of $303 for Coinbase, representing a potential upside of up to 34% based on the recent low of approximately $225. However, the report also emphasizes that this upgrade is a “selective optimism on Coinbase” and does not indicate a broadly optimistic outlook for the entire cryptocurrency industry.

Goldman states that, due to increasingly fierce competition and the impact of the interest rate environment on business models, Coinbase’s adjusted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) profit margin in 2026 is unlikely to see significant expansion, and overall may remain stable.

The analyst in the report pointed out that Coinbase is moving away from its past reliance on “cryptocurrency trading” as its sole revenue stream. Data shows that the company’s “structural businesses,” including custody services, staking, and subscription services, have increased their revenue share from less than 5% five years ago to currently 40%.

GS upgrade $COIN from neutral to BUY.
“Selectively more optimistic on crypto.”
“Shift to structural growth through growing derivatives business, best-in-class crypto infrastructure businesses, and new, secularly growing products, particularly tokenization/prediction markets” pic.twitter.com/9vuBZR1ICX

— Matthew Sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) January 5, 2026

Compared to the highly dependent cryptocurrency trading income driven by market fluctuations, these businesses are viewed as less volatile, with more stable cash flows, and better positioned to support the long-term trend of cryptocurrencies gradually integrating into the mainstream financial system.

This upgrade by Goldman Sachs also reflects Coinbase’s series of new product deployments announced in December last year, including US stock trading, prediction markets, derivatives, and more comprehensive banking and financial services.

Goldman believes that, over time, prediction markets and asset tokenization have the potential to develop into large markets. Whether they can truly translate into substantial revenue depends on scale and liquidity, which are advantages Coinbase holds over other platforms, primarily due to its large existing user base, helping Coinbase gain an edge in the competition.