Donald Trump transforms into the “Adult Version Santa Claus,” claiming to distribute a $2,000 “Tariff Bonus” to middle- and low-income Americans using tariff revenue, igniting crypto market frenzy but hiding the hidden bills of inflation, fiscal deficits, and policy uncertainties — is this gift real silver and gold, or a sweet illusion? This article is sourced from the On-Chain Revelation, compiled, translated, and written by Odaily Planet Daily.
(Background: Trump calls for “Universal $2,000 Payments”: Only fools oppose tariffs; U.S. Treasury Secretary stunned: Never discussed with me)
(Additional context: Trump’s latest move: Imposing 25% tariffs on trade with Iran and other countries, with China and India first in line)

Table of Contents

• 1. When the President Announces Nationwide Money Distribution: A Market Carnival
  • The Pre-Opened Gift Box: The Source of the Bonus
  • How Was the Bonus Born?
• 2. The Prepaid Festivities and Unpaid Bills: Emotions, Revelry, Illusions
  • Short-term Market Frenzy: Emotions First, Cash Not Yet
  • Predicting Market Battles: Kalshi v.s Polymarket
• 3. Behind the Christmas Candy: A Cavity Called “Inflation”
• 4. The Last Person Leaving the Table

Every Christmas, children receive gifts from Santa, never questioning the cost. Now, Donald Trump is trying to play Santa for the adult world, promising a $2,000 “Tariff Bonus” dropped from the sky, claiming it’s paid by a distant “foreign factory.” The crypto market is already excited like children eager to open presents. But there’s an overlooked detail in this grand magic show: before clapping for that rabbit appearing out of nowhere, no one asks who paid for the dinner. And who will go hungry tonight?

1. When the President Announces Nationwide Money Distribution: A Market Carnival

Source: Donald Trump

And the crypto market just happens to be that diner who never cares who pays the bill, only smelling the aroma.

The last time they celebrated was during the pandemic stimulus checks; this time, the feast’s main course is Trump’s new trick — the “Tariff Dividend.” This 79-year-old “Santa” who hurriedly “took office” over a month ago, officially announced on November 9 on his social platform Truth Social that he would distribute $2,000 cash to each middle- and low-income American. The “magic” behind this money isn’t a traditional printing press but his beloved import tariffs.

The market’s applause was thunderous and unwavering. Within minutes of the announcement, Bitcoin surged 1.75%, Ethereum rose 3.32%. Privacy coins like Zcash and Monero, more sensitive to “anonymous money printing,” saw double-digit gains. Crypto exchanges’ trading volumes skyrocketed, and social media buzzed with cheers of a “new stimulus bull market.”

Clearly, for these excited “children,” Santa has already taken off in his sleigh.

# The Pre-Opened Gift Box: The Source of the Bonus

Trump’s obsession with tariffs dates back to his 2016 campaign promise — “America First.”

He firmly believed high tariffs could protect American manufacturing and make foreigners pay for America’s debts. After taking office, he quickly launched trade wars with China, the EU, and other economies, imposing high tariffs on steel, aluminum, and consumer goods.

This logic is simple yet dangerous: tariffs are described as “protection fees” paid by foreigners, not hidden taxes borne by American consumers.

By fiscal year 2025, U.S. tariff revenue will reach $195 billion. Trump repeatedly claimed these revenues could be used to pay off America’s $37 trillion national debt. But economists point out that companies simply pass costs onto consumers, resulting in inflation and decreased purchasing power.

But in Trump’s supporters’ eyes, this is a victory — tariffs make “foreigners pay, America gets richer.” This narrative laid the political groundwork for the “Tariff Bonus.”

# How Was the Bonus Born?

The concept of the “Tariff Bonus” didn’t appear out of thin air. In a TV interview last month, Trump hinted at plans to return part of tariff revenue to Americans — ranging from $1,000 to $2,000 per person. He claimed this policy could generate over $1 trillion annually, enough to cover a universal dividend.

On November 9, he officially announced on Truth Social: “We are collecting trillions of dollars and will soon start paying off our huge debt. Everyone (excluding high earners!) will receive at least $2,000 in bonuses.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later hinted that the bonus might be distributed as tax cuts. But Trump provided no specific details.

In other words, this glittering gift box, once opened, is empty. No timetable, no qualification standards, and no Congressional approval.

According to Kobeissi Letter’s investment analysts’ estimates, referencing the distribution pattern of stimulus checks during the pandemic, about 220 million American adults are eligible for these checks. On paper, it sounds like a “fiscal innovation”; in reality, it’s a replay of a political script. Shout slogans first, then stimulate the market.

On paper, it sounds like a “fiscal innovation”; in reality, it’s a replay of a political script. Shout slogans first, then stimulate the market.

Markets have muscle memory. They clearly remember that in 2020, U.S. stimulus checks caused Bitcoin to soar from $4,000 to $69,000, creating the most feverish bull market in crypto history. Naturally, the market expects a “repeat of history,” kicking off the wildest crypto party ever. Now, familiar music plays again, and the market naturally anticipates “history repeating.”

But this time, the magician’s trick has a flaw: the party back then was fueled by the Federal Reserve printing money out of thin air; today’s “bonus” is just redistributing some guests’ drinks to others. It’s not a new feast, just a replate of taxes. Its scale and sustainability are full of questions.

After the last stimulus, U.S. inflation approached 10%.

2. The Prepaid Festivities and Unpaid Bills: Emotions, Revelry, Illusions

Short-term Market Frenzy: Emotions First, Cash Not Yet

Crypto markets react swiftly to stories.

Within 24 hours of the announcement, major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all surged.

“Stocks and Bitcoin will only respond to stimulus — they go up,” investor Anthony Pompliano wrote on X after the news broke.

Bitcoin advocate Simon Dixon warned: “If you don’t invest this $2,000 into assets, it will either be eaten by inflation or used to pay debts, eventually flowing back into banks.”

This reveals the core psychology of the market: whether the stimulus actually lands or not, liquidity expectations are the fuel for price rises.

But this wave of rise is more like a psychological illusion of speculation.

1. First, the policy has not yet received any legislative approval. If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the bonus plan could die in the cradle.

2. Second, even if implemented, it means fiscal revenue is directly distributed, not used for debt repayment. Trump’s promise to “use foreign money to pay American debts” may once again fall short.

3. More critically, large-scale cash disbursements will increase inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt more hawkish monetary policies. When liquidity tightens, risk assets will be the first to suffer.

Industry analysts warn that while some bonus funds will boost asset prices, in the long run, the consequences will be currency inflation and declining purchasing power.

Predicting Market Battles: Kalshi v.s Polymarket

Behind the frenzy, a legal showdown is underway. The U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing the legality of tariffs. As of November 10, according to decentralized prediction market Polymarket, traders assign only a 23% chance of approval; on the platform Kalshi, this probability is even lower at 22%. In other words, most market bets favor the plan being ultimately rejected by the judiciary.

Source: Polymarket

But Trump himself is clearly a more talented “director.” He directly questioned on Truth Social:

“Can the President of the United States, authorized by Congress, stop all foreign trade — which is more severe than tariffs — yet cannot impose taxes for national security? What kind of logic is that?”

See, with just one sentence, he cleverly reframe a dull controversy into a grand political drama about “sovereignty.”

This theatrical strategy is second nature to a big figure who once cameoed in the Christmas classic “Home Alone 2,” guiding the young protagonist on how to find the lobby.

3. Behind the Christmas Candy: A Cavity Called “Inflation”

In other words, behind the short-term revelry is a familiar script. The director hasn’t changed, only leaving the next actor to face the consequences.

“Tariff Bonus” is carefully packaged as a Christmas gift box, but it’s more like a melting Christmas candy — the sweet taste (short-term stimulation) leaves behind a “cavity” called “inflation” that’s hard to cure.

1. The $195 billion tariff revenue, compared to the $37 trillion national debt, is like filling a swimming pool with a single coin. Distributing this coin directly is akin to using future money to buy current applause.

2. The short-term political popularity comes at the cost of long-term fiscal risks. Economists warn this policy could create a “double inflation”: tariffs raise costs, bonuses stimulate demand — like pressing both the accelerator and brake of an already speeding car, ultimately overheating the engine and wrecking the vehicle.

3. Geopolitically, this noisy family party could also invite complaints or retaliation from neighbors (other countries). When the trade war snowball rolls again, global supply chains will creak, especially for crypto mining dependent on global chips, like a snowstorm.

In short, behind the short-term revelry is a familiar script. Santa just stuffed a bill labeled “Inflation,” “Deficit,” and “Trade War” into next year’s Christmas stocking.

4. The Last Person Leaving the Table

In this grand political drama, Santa Trump has prepared a special gift not only for ordinary people but also for the crypto world. When he announced pulling $2,000 from that red pocket called “Tariff,” the entire crypto market seemed to hear the Christmas bells early.

Now, the sled of history appears to be heading along the old tracks. The market’s children (retail investors) are eagerly watching the chimney, convinced some gifts will drop directly into their crypto wallets, starting another “altseason.”

But every child who believes in Santa must face a harsh reality: what is the cost of the gift?

This time, Santa’s gift isn’t conjured out of thin air in the North Pole workshop; he simply generously maxed out the country’s credit card. This $400 billion feast’s bill is “inflation.” When holiday heat makes the entire room (economy) overheated, adults (the Federal Reserve) may have to open the windows and blow in cold air (raise interest rates), ending the revelry early.

So, every crypto investor faces a beautifully wrapped gift box. In the short term, it shines with the allure of history repeating; but in the long run, the back of the box may have a tiny print — a “bill” called “inflation.”

Is this truly a gift that will keep the winter warm, or just a melting Christmas candy that causes cavities? For crypto believers, choosing which story to believe will determine whether they can survive this feast unscathed.

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