Weekly Strategy Report 1.15

I. Weekly Market Overview

This week, the overall crypto market shows a warming and recovery trend. Market sentiment has shifted from neutral and cautious to neutral and optimistic, with a significant increase in capital inflow willingness. Core cryptocurrencies’ prices are steadily rising, with Bitcoin re-entering and maintaining above $95,000, Ethereum warming up simultaneously, and the altcoin sector collectively exploding. Privacy coins and Bitcoin ecosystem inscription projects lead the gains. Market volume and price are recovering in tandem, indicating a rational correction phase.

Core driving signals exhibit multi-dimensional resonance features. Exchange activities continue to inject vitality into the market, with Coinbase launching Raydium spot trading soon, BNB Chain completing the Fermi upgrade to enhance network performance, and community attention sparked by activities like the Fogo airdrop. Institutional capital flow has reversed; BTC and ETH spot ETFs shifted from net outflows last week to net inflows today, reflecting a marginal increase in institutional risk appetite. The integration of traditional finance and the crypto sector continues to deepen, with Visa launching enterprise stablecoin payment services, and Germany’s DZ Bank approved to open retail crypto trading channels, further expanding industry boundaries. Meanwhile, global regulatory policies are diverse: the US crypto market structure bill hearing has been postponed, and Russia plans to relax crypto regulation frameworks, bringing differentiated policy expectations.

II. Core Market Trends and Capital Dynamics

This week, the crypto market is in a rational correction stage, with market sentiment and capital flows showing positive correlation. Although there is still some long-short competition, the overall sentiment is warm. The Fear & Greed Index rose from 43 last week to 54, shifting sentiment from neutral and cautious to neutral and optimistic, not yet entering the greed zone. This change aligns with the market volume and price recovery, as well as volatility convergence. Capital inflow willingness has increased significantly, but external factors such as US stock linkages and ETF fund flow fluctuations still warrant caution.

In terms of market capitalization, the total crypto market cap currently reaches $3.26 trillion, up 0.48% in 24 hours, showing a moderate stabilization trend. From recent trends, the total market cap has been rising from a previous low, stabilizing above $3.2 trillion. Market selling pressure has weakened, and small capital inflows are evident, but gains are limited, and there is no sign of a one-sided upward move. The market remains in a consolidation and correction channel.

The performance of core cryptocurrencies shows differentiated features. Bitcoin’s price steadily rises, currently at $96,382.93, up 0.96% in 24 hours, with a 7-day increase of 5.45%. Its market cap is $1.92 trillion, with a market share of 59.02%, up 0.58 percentage points from the previous day. The medium- to long-term bullish trend remains intact, but short-term prices are at relatively high levels, facing correction pressure. Key support levels should be monitored, and it is advisable to consider adding positions after breaking resistance, with caution against chasing highs. Ethereum has gained 4.66% over the past 7 days, currently priced at $3,322.63, with a slight 0.46% decline in 24 hours. Its market cap is $400.86 billion, with a market share of 12.30%. Short-term indicators show pressure, but oversold signals suggest a small rebound opportunity. However, upward momentum is weak, and while there is potential for medium- to long-term gains, overbought risks increase. Attention should be paid to the middle Bollinger Band support; a break below could lead to a correction. Suitable for short-term observation and medium- to long-term accumulation on dips.

Capital flow signals show a significant reversal: BTC and ETH spot ETFs both exhibit “outflows last week, inflows today.” Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $288 million last week, with a net inflow of $184 million today; Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $81 million last week, with a net inflow of $94 million today. This change indicates that earlier institutional profit-taking and position adjustments occurred when core assets were at relatively high levels. The subsequent inflow suggests ongoing demand for crypto asset allocation, with institutional risk appetite marginally rising, potentially supporting prices in the short term. However, sustained inflows remain uncertain, and secondary corrections could occur if inflows weaken.

The derivatives market further highlights market divergence and risk aversion, showing a “futures increase, perpetual decrease” divergence. Open interest in futures contracts increased to $3.87 billion, up 19.53%, reflecting rising short-term speculation and hedging demand, possibly driven by institutions deploying strategies for short-term swings. Perpetual contracts decreased by 10.72% to $58.684 billion, indicating traders are actively de-leveraging to avoid high-level corrections, aligning with market expectations of correction and adjustment at high levels. Overall, market volatility and long-short competition are intensifying, and short-term fluctuations may further amplify. Caution is advised regarding the potential liquidity and price impact caused by continuous contraction of perpetual contracts.

III. Selected Trading Strategies

1. High-Yield Strategy Highlights

Core Highlights:

• Double high performance: +871.58% actual return and +793.21% AI predicted return, far exceeding average small-cap performance, with strong aggressiveness.
• Win rate and trading rhythm: 100% win rate demonstrates stable profitability in backtests; 132 trades balance activity and operational feasibility.
• Reasonable risk-reward ratio: Sharpe ratio of 1.18 indicates attractive returns per unit risk, suitable for high-volatility small-cap assets.

Applicable Scenario: Suitable for high-risk tolerance investors focusing on short-term or swing trading of small-cap tokens. Only applicable during high-volatility phases, requiring fast entry and exit, not suitable for conservative or long-term investors.

2. High-Frequency Trading Strategy Highlights

Core Highlights:

• Outstanding high-frequency adaptability: Low volatility + high Sharpe ratio (9.07), maximum drawdown only -0.45%, perfect for “short-term, multiple trades” high-frequency rhythm, avoiding impact from single large swings.
• Return profile aligned with high-frequency logic: AI predicted annualized return of 39.14%, fitting the “small profit accumulation for compounding” approach, with significant long-term compounding effects. Current 2.4% yield results from gradual trading gains, matching the “steady, detailed, frequent” profit mode.
• Significant risk-reward advantage: High Sharpe ratio (9.07) indicates minimal risk exposure per trade and high return certainty, precisely fitting the core logic of high-frequency “risk control per trade, increased trade frequency.”

Applicable Scenario: Designed for mainstream high-liquidity trading pairs like ETH-USDT, suitable for short-term arbitrage in oscillating markets and high-frequency swing trading in mild trending markets. Ideal for traders preferring high-frequency strategies with “low risk + continuous compounding,” as well as institutional or large capital “high-frequency baseline strategies” to smooth position fluctuations and accumulate long-term gains. Not suitable for small-cap tokens or extreme unidirectional markets.

3. High-Stability Strategy Highlights

Core Highlights:

• Outstanding robustness: As a BTC RSI-based strategy, maximum drawdown is only 5.48%, far below typical crypto strategy volatility, fitting a “more stable” profile.
• Reasonable risk-reward ratio: Sharpe ratio of 1.38 (>1) combined with +105.96% return, achieving high elasticity of returns under risk control, suitable for conservative strategies emphasizing “risk controllable, gains substantial.”
• Profit-loss ratio with fault tolerance: 2.68 profit-loss ratio means profitable trades’ gains significantly cover losses, with “thick padding” from single profitable trades to achieve overall positive returns, enhancing volatility resistance.

Applicable Scenario: Suitable for mainstream assets like BTC in oscillating upward or moderate trending markets. Fits investors with medium risk tolerance seeking “steady progress,” serving as a core medium- to long-term strategy or matching swing trading with “low drawdown, slow accumulation.” Especially suitable for traders using RSI to identify trend opportunities without high volatility risks. Not suitable for extreme unidirectional markets.

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IV. 24h Top Gainers and Losers

Top 5 Gainers:

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Top 5 Losers:

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V. Conclusion

This week, the crypto market continues its warming trend, with sentiment recovery and capital inflows forming a positive feedback loop. Exchange activities, institutional deployments, and integration with traditional finance are the core drivers. Although the market has not yet entered the greed zone, long-short competition persists. Focus should be on the sustainability of ETF fund inflows and key price levels of core assets. Stay tuned to this column for the latest market insights and strategy analysis.