XRP's early-year surge is just the appetizer? Three major catalysts are gearing up to trigger a "super cycle"

XRP has risen 14% so far this year, with three catalysts pushing a super cycle. Ripple has obtained licenses from the UK FCA and Luxembourg EMI, the Clarity Act grants it non-security status, and ETFs have attracted 1.6 billion in two months. Technical resistance is at $2.40, with the 200 EMA providing support. Breaking through $2.24 to reach $2.50 would be a super cycle signal.

Ripple’s European Dual Licenses: The Payment Revolution and Cross-Border Hegemony

This week, Ripple announced it has received two key licenses to operate as a digital payment platform in Europe. First, the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) issued Ripple an Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license, and Luxembourg also issued Ripple a “green light letter,” marking the first step toward obtaining a similar license in that country. These licenses represent a major breakthrough for Ripple in the European market, laying a solid foundation for expanding its global payment network.

The FCA’s EMI license is highly valuable. FCA is one of the world’s strictest financial regulators, and approval signifies Ripple has passed rigorous reviews on anti-money laundering, consumer protection, capital adequacy, and more. This regulatory endorsement will significantly boost traditional financial institutions’ trust in Ripple, encouraging more banks and payment companies to adopt Ripple’s technology for cross-border transfers.

Luxembourg’s “green light letter” is a preliminary step toward obtaining a full EMI license, indicating Ripple’s smooth progress in compliance within the EU’s core financial hub. Luxembourg is a key European financial center, home to many international banks and investment funds. If Ripple successfully obtains a full license in Luxembourg, it will open the door to serving all 27 EU countries, as EMI licenses have “passport” rights within the EU.

These two licenses have a structural impact on XRP’s price. When Ripple’s payment network is legalized and widely used in Europe, demand for XRP will continue to grow. Ripple’s cross-border payment system uses XRP as a bridge currency, where banks convert local currency to XRP and then XRP to the target currency. This mechanism makes Ripple’s business growth directly translate into increased XRP trading volume and demand. If Europe’s cross-border payments reach hundreds of billions of dollars per month, demand for XRP will be substantial and sustained.

Additionally, Ripple already holds over 75 regulatory licenses worldwide, making it the most licensed crypto company. This global compliance network enables Ripple to provide truly worldwide payment services, unlike competitors who may only operate legally in a few countries. Ripple Payments continues to expand globally, covering over 90% of the daily forex market, with a transaction volume exceeding $95 billion. This real-world application scale is the fundamental support for XRP’s value, far beyond mere speculation.

Clarity Act’s Non-Security Status and Wall Street Unlock

In the US, the Clarity Act will push regulators to treat XRP the same way as Bitcoin, granting it the status of a “non-auxiliary” asset. This is the regulatory clarity XRP investors have waited for years. Since the SEC sued Ripple in 2020, XRP’s security classification has been an unresolved sword of Damocles. Although the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC was settled in August 2025, with the court ruling that XRP’s programmatic sales do not meet the Howey test, this is only a judicial ruling, not legislation.

If the Clarity Act passes, it will formally confirm at the legislative level that XRP is not a security. This legislative certainty far exceeds judicial rulings because it won’t change with SEC leadership changes or policy shifts. For institutional investors, legislative clarity is a prerequisite for allocating to crypto assets. Once XRP is explicitly classified as “non-security,” conservative institutions like pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds will be freed from investment restrictions and can legally hold XRP.

This unlocking of institutional capital could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars. For example, with the US pension market around $30 trillion, a 0.1% allocation to XRP would mean an additional demand of $30 billion. Compared to XRP’s current market cap of about $130 billion, this incremental demand would significantly boost prices. Moreover, passing the Clarity Act would clear obstacles for launching more XRP-related financial products, such as futures, options, and structured products, further deepening XRP’s market and liquidity.

Threefold Unlocking of XRP via Clarity Act

Institutional Capital Unlock: Pension funds, insurance, and conservative institutions can legally allocate XRP

Derivatives Market Opening: Futures, options, structured products to enhance liquidity

Bank Direct Holdings: Commercial banks can include XRP on their balance sheets for cross-border settlement

However, the passage of the Clarity Act is not guaranteed. As previously reported in this column, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly criticized the Senate Banking Committee’s version of the Market Structure Bill, calling provisions like “diminishing CFTC authority in favor of the SEC” terrible, preferring no bill over a bad one. Such industry disagreements could delay or obstruct the final passage of the Clarity Act. Investors should remain cautious of legislative risks and not assume its passage as a certainty.

ETF’s $1.6 Billion Institutional Buying Frenzy in Two Months

The exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to this token attracted nearly $1.6 billion in total assets within just two months, reflecting Wall Street’s growing demand for the token. This pace is extremely rare in crypto ETF history. For comparison, Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted about $10 billion within two months of launch, and Ethereum ETFs about $2 billion. While XRP ETFs’ $1.6 billion is smaller in absolute terms, considering XRP’s market cap is only about 1/15 of Bitcoin’s, this capital inflow is remarkably impressive.

The significance of ETF capital inflows is not just the amount but also the source. ETF buyers are mainly institutions and high-net-worth individuals, whose funds tend to be long-term and less prone to frequent trading. When $1.6 billion is locked into XRP ETFs, this portion of XRP is effectively removed from circulating supply, providing structural price support. Additionally, ETFs lower the barrier and friction for traditional investors to buy XRP—no need to open crypto exchange accounts, learn wallet management, or worry about hacking—just buy the ETF through a stock account.

Canary Capital’s XRPC leads with $375.1 million in net assets, followed by Bitwise’s XRP fund ($300.3 million) and Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ ($279.6 million). Grayscale’s GXRP fund has $271.2 million, and 21Shares’ TOXR fund has $246.9 million. The participation of multiple institutions is positive for XRP, indicating no single entity monopolizes the market, which should drive down costs and foster product innovation.

Since its launch in mid-November 2025, XRP funds have accumulated net inflows of $1.22 billion, with total assets reaching $1.47 billion, accounting for 1.16% of XRP’s market cap. Although this percentage seems modest, the rapid growth in just over two months is remarkable. If this inflow rate continues, XRP ETF assets could reach $5 billion to $10 billion by the end of 2026. At that point, ETF-held XRP would account for 4% to 8% of total circulating supply, creating significant supply lock-up pressure.

However, ETF capital flows are not always upward. In early January 2026, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced large outflows, showing that institutional investors do not buy blindly but adjust positions based on market conditions and risk appetite. If XRP’s price remains weak in the coming months or negative news emerges (such as technical vulnerabilities, regulatory setbacks, or rising competitors), ETF inflows could slow or even turn into outflows. Investors should not view the “$1.6 billion ETF inflow” as a permanent trend but should monitor weekly capital flow data closely.

$2.40 Resistance and Technical Validation of the Super Cycle

(Source: Trading View)

The 4-hour chart shows that XRP faced strong selling resistance near $2.40 during its recent rally. Currently, the token appears to find support around the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). As long as this support holds, XRP remains bullish because it has recently broken its bearish structure. If the price rises above $2.24, it could trigger a rally toward at least $2.50, then higher levels. This would be an early signal that a “super cycle” is beginning.

Why is $2.40 so critical? This level is a key resistance point after XRP hit a seven-year high in July 2025, representing a concentration of early buyers’ cost basis. When the price approaches this level, holders face a choice: “Hold for higher prices” or “Take profits and lock in gains.” Historically, around $2.40, there tends to be heavy selling, and profit-taking pressure needs strong buying to absorb.

If XRP can break through $2.40 and hold, the technical outlook will shift. Breaking key resistance often triggers stop-loss orders and chasing buying, creating self-reinforcing upward momentum. After surpassing $2.40, the next target is $2.50, a psychological and round-number resistance, followed by $3.00, a more significant psychological barrier. If it breaks $3.00, XRP will re-enter the “price discovery” phase, surpassing the 2021 bull high and entering uncharted territory. Without clear resistance levels, the upward speed could accelerate.

The support at the 200-week EMA is equally important. The EMA is a widely used trend indicator, and the 200-week EMA marks a long-term trend threshold. When prices stay above it, the long-term trend is bullish; falling below may signal a trend reversal. XRP currently finds support near the 200 EMA, indicating long-term buyers are actively accumulating at this technical level. As long as this support holds, the bull market structure remains intact.

The concept of a “super cycle” originates from commodity markets, referring to a multi-year or even decade-long sustained uptrend, with occasional corrections but no change in the overall upward direction. If XRP truly enters a super cycle, it could mean prices will continue to reach new highs over the coming years, from the current $2.13 possibly to $10 or higher. Achieving this outlook depends on three major catalysts (EU licenses, Clarity Act, ETF capital) materializing fully and Ripple’s actual business expanding. Any disruption in these areas could end the super cycle prematurely.

All these catalysts, combined with bullish technical indicators, could pave the way for XRP’s strong recovery this year. XRP has already gained 14% in 2026 so far. If this momentum continues and the three catalysts gradually materialize, XRP’s performance in 2026 could surpass other major coins significantly. However, investors should remain rational, recognizing that a “super cycle” is an optimistic scenario, and actual price action may deviate due to numerous variables. Viewing XRP as a long-term asset rather than a short-term speculation may be the wiser approach.