Cathie Wood 2026 Outlook: Robotaxi Reshapes Tesla Valuation, SpaceX Expected to Break Trillion-Dollar Market Cap

Ark Invest (ARK Invest) founder Cathie Wood discussed her outlook for Tesla (Tesla) and SpaceX in the latest interview, emphasizing that the market is re-evaluating the essence of tech companies. She believes that Tesla’s key is no longer just selling cars but whether it can successfully transform into a self-driving service platform; in the space industry, she highlights SpaceX, which has the potential to become the world’s first space company with a market value exceeding $1 trillion. These changes will profoundly influence how the market evaluates tech companies after 2026.

Electric vehicles face pressure, Tesla shifts to autonomous driving service model

Cathie Wood pointed out that the electric vehicle market is currently under sales pressure, and Tesla’s growth momentum in vehicle deliveries is not as strong as in earlier periods. However, the market’s focus has gradually shifted from quarterly sales figures to Tesla’s potential in autonomous driving services.

She stated that traditional automakers belong to the hardware industry with a gross margin of about 15%; if Tesla successfully develops a Robotaxi platform, its revenue structure and business model will become more similar to SaaS industries, with gross margins potentially increasing to 70% to 80%.

Analysts reevaluate Tesla from a tech company perspective, no longer just as an automaker

Wood revealed that recently, more and more analysts, even those originally focused on the automotive industry, have started to upgrade their ratings for Tesla. The reason is that they are gradually understanding that Tesla is no longer just a traditional car manufacturer but is transforming into a tech platform centered on software and autonomous services.

Once the revenue from Robotaxi is formally included in the analysis model, Tesla’s potential scale will no longer be viewed through the lens of “manufacturing millions of cars annually,” but as a service-oriented company with high gross margins and recurring revenue features.

Robotaxi expansion speed may surpass market expectations

Regarding the progress of Robotaxi deployment, Wood said that the actual speed of Tesla’s autonomous system service expansion has already exceeded the expectations of many market participants.

She also mentioned that competitors like Waymo, especially in Texas, are fiercely competing with Tesla. She believes that such competition will not slow down industry development but will instead accelerate the adoption of autonomous taxis.

She further pointed out that if future federal-level regulations are established instead of each state acting independently, the expansion speed of Robotaxi around 2026 could be significantly faster than current market expectations.

Making Optimus robots operate stably remains a high difficulty challenge in the short term

Regarding Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus, Wood’s attitude is relatively cautious. She cited internal research from Ark, indicating that making a robot with human-like agility operate stably is about 200,000 times more difficult than autonomous taxis.

This means that Optimus will be gradually improved through generational updates, but reaching a stage close to human capabilities will still require a considerable amount of time. However, Wood also pointed out that robots with single functions such as warehousing, logistics, handling, and picking are already beginning to see practical applications. These experiences will help accumulate Tesla’s future technological foundation in the robotics field.

Market optimistic about space industry, SpaceX valuation approaching the trillion-dollar threshold

In the latter part of the interview, Wood also discussed the space industry. She stated that the latest private market valuation of space companies has reached about $800 billion, nearly doubling in size.

She pointed out that the market generally believes SpaceX has the opportunity to become the world’s first space company with a market value surpassing $1 trillion. Especially with new application scenarios emerging, such as developing data centers in space orbit to avoid ground energy, land, and security restrictions, the economic value of space infrastructure is rapidly increasing.

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