CZ Chinese AMA: All Thoughts on Bitcoin at 200,000, Super Cycles, Meme Coins, and Regulations

Source: Little Universe

Editor: Wu Talks Blockchain

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On January 14, Binance founder CZ (Changpeng Zhao) held a Chinese AMA to engage with the community, discussing in depth the future trends of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, especially the possibilities of a super cycle and investment strategies for the industry. He emphasized the impact of US policies on the market, particularly in the context of the intertwining of the stock market and cryptocurrencies. He also shared insights on community building in crypto, memecoin trends, decentralization, and the importance of compliance in the industry. Additionally, CZ expressed optimism about prediction markets and the potential of AI code generation, while also offering advice to investors, especially beginners, highlighting risk management and long-term perspectives.

The opinions expressed are personal views of the guest and do not represent Wu Talks’ opinions. Audio transcription was performed by GPT and may contain errors. Please listen to the full podcast on Little Universe, YT, etc.

Are there better methods for user expansion?

CZ: I think it depends on each person’s situation. If your network is deeply penetrated in academia, business, or education sectors, different approaches may be needed. I believe the best way is for everyone to educate the entire industry in their own way, doing a little at a time. As more people contribute, the influence will grow wider, and ultimately, the user base will increase.

Has the super cycle already begun? Will 2026 be a new starting point?

CZ: When I talk about the super cycle, I refer to Bitcoin’s original four-year cycle, which is very evident in history. If we look at historical cycles, this year might be a bear market because 2020 and 2021 were bear markets, 2017 was a bull market, and most subsequent years have been bear markets.

So, when I mention the super cycle or super bull market, I usually think in terms of years. This year, I believe the situation might be different. From a simple logic perspective, although Bitcoin has a four-year cycle, this year could be different. The biggest possibility is that US policies introduced now are very friendly to Bitcoin, and the US president might implement a series of policies to boost the stock market, especially with mid-term elections coming up.

If the US stock market performs better, then the strength of the stock market might surpass Bitcoin or the traditional four-year cycle of digital currencies. I think this is quite likely, but of course, I could be wrong. So, don’t overthink what I said. My personal view is this. By the way, South Korea just recently allowed listed companies to participate in crypto trading, which is also a long-term positive trend for the industry. I tend to see the positive side, so I am very optimistic about the future.

What is the outlook for prediction markets in 2026?

CZ: I think prediction markets are a very large track in the long term, that’s my personal opinion. However, how big or small this track will be is hard to judge now. Some hype might be exaggerated.

In the short term, it’s still very difficult to predict who will win or lose. The prediction market is still very new, mainly represented by Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi doesn’t deeply involve itself in the crypto space, while Polymarket gained fame during the last election but faced some setbacks, such as needing to block US users and re-licensing.

These two projects demonstrate the market’s existence, but many new competitors may emerge, possibly hundreds or thousands. Which format will succeed in each country, and which regulatory policies will be more suitable, are still unclear. For example, market makers in prediction markets are currently few—mainly one or two traditional market makers—mostly limited to sports events. When it involves other types of predictions, it’s less easy to do. The industry still faces unresolved issues in solving these problems.

Currently, this track is still very early stage, but we have invested heavily and supported several projects. Although there may be competition among these projects, we support each one’s success.

Will AI become the mainstream direction in the future?

CZ: I believe AI will write a lot of code in the future, which is very obvious. And now, with AI’s help, the speed and quality of coding have improved significantly.

Yesterday, I heard a figure: a traditional financial company wrote about 2 million lines of code over the past 7 years, but in the past year, AI-generated code has reached a similar scale. Moreover, AI’s code isn’t just copy-pasted; it’s very streamlined and practical. Therefore, I think AI will greatly enhance human productivity and output.

For developers, this is very positive—if we apply this technology properly. Of course, many people use AI to write useless programs, but in every market, about 70% to 80% of attempts fail, while a small portion succeed very well. Overall, AI will increase the volume of code, improve quality, and boost our overall output.

Is the memecoin market fair?

CZ: Honestly, memecoins and other on-chain projects are inherently decentralized. In a decentralized environment, some people will always be faster than others, and as the track develops, their efficiency will increase.

Ordinary retail investors, not being professional players, tend to be less efficient, and over time, this gap widens. Introducing third-party interference might have benefits but could also lead to centralization. Such interference is hard to define clearly. When you see me post memecoin info, people will interpret it from different angles and create their own content.

Of course, some people specialize in doing this—they are faster. If everyone follows them, they might succeed, but if not, it’s valueless. Early participants take risks and may lose money. Later participants who feel it’s unfair can choose not to follow. I believe this issue doesn’t require my intervention; it should develop naturally within the community.

Also, my tweets won’t change based on what others say. I have my freedom in the decentralized world and won’t be influenced externally. I understand this situation, but I don’t think I have the ability to interfere.

A truly successful memecoin should have long-term cultural significance, like Doge. New memecoins that maintain value over the long term are almost nonexistent.

You can play, but be aware it’s your own choice. Memecoin risks are high—most will fail. You might get rich overnight, but the probability of success is low. Be responsible for your own decisions. That’s my view.

Can Bitcoin reach 200,000?

CZ: Haha, that’s really hard to answer. The hardest part is timing. I’ve always been bullish on Bitcoin, believing it’s unlikely to see a top over time. So I think Bitcoin reaching 200,000 is just a matter of time, it’s inevitable. Just not sure when exactly.

Future development of Binance Square and creator-oriented ideas

CZ: I can only share some personal thoughts; the specific direction depends on the team. I hope Binance Square becomes more interactive. I am a heavy user of Twitter and feel many social platforms do not do well in content filtering and recommendation, especially in accurately pushing interesting content to interested users.

TikTok does better in this regard but can be overdone, leading to addiction and monotony. Many platforms can improve in content filtering and delivery. As for AI-generated content, it looks very eye-catching now, but much of it is just time-wasting and lacks substantive value. I hope social media platforms like Facebook can also improve in this area.

Binance Square differs from other platforms because most users are KYC-verified, making transactions and transfers very convenient. In contrast, X (Twitter) claims to have 700 million users, but it’s unclear if all have completed KYC. Binance supports KYC in over 180 countries, giving us a natural advantage. So I believe Binance Square has great potential in this aspect.

Is community building promising and what is its outlook?

CZ: Very simple—I think community building is definitely useful, especially in the long run. The definition of community building is broad, but the key is whether what you create is used by people. Whether it’s a product, community, or memecoin, as long as there are users, it has value. If no one pays attention, it’s worthless.

So I believe, in the long term, community building will definitely have value. The principle is very simple.

What are your short-term and long-term expectations for memecoins?

CZ: My simple hope is that all tracks will become more popular, especially memecoins. In the long run, the most important thing is that these things are practically used or have followers. My view on memecoins is straightforward—I don’t exclude any track. I personally enjoy playing with memecoins. However, memecoins aren’t really for me; I usually don’t participate in short-term speculative plays like overnight 10x gains. It’s not meaningful to me, even though many are interested.

As builders, we want to provide better and smoother tools, especially for memecoin trading, which demands very high system standards. Whether it’s decentralized real-time data fetching or other technical requirements, the challenges are significant. I hope our ecosystem’s products and systems can keep improving and become more user-friendly. Markets always have cycles; when our platform and products are more user-friendly, more people will naturally use them.

Has the memecoin market regressed back to a global casino?

CZ: That’s a philosophical and broad question, hard to answer precisely. Markets have cycles; it’s difficult to tell if we’re at a high or low point. I think this year might be a super cycle, or perhaps the four-year cycle of digital currencies will dominate more strongly—that’s hard to determine.

VC projects do have issues—many perform well at launch but quickly spiral into a death spiral. Most VC projects are led by venture capital firms; early investors often package projects attractively. But VCs have exit pressures—they’re not long-term holders and usually need returns within fund cycles. When these projects go public, there’s often strong selling pressure, with retail investors as the main buyers. This phenomenon also occurs in traditional IPO markets, where IPOs used to be for company financing, but now are often for VC exits.

As for memecoins, their situation isn’t exactly the same. Some projects have professional teams behind them, who buy quickly and push prices up. So, which approach is better? It depends on each project’s specifics. My advice is to learn risk assessment and be responsible for your decisions. No one forces you to buy any coin; risk control is crucial—be aware of that.

How to improve customer service efficiency, especially problem-solving speed?

CZ: I strongly support improving customer service efficiency. When Binance started, we set a policy to reply to customers within 24 hours, which was key to Binance’s success. Later, we aimed to reply within 5 minutes. It’s hard to achieve during peak times, but we keep improving. If response times reach two days, that’s a bad sign—I give feedback to push for better efficiency.

Any advice for female KOLs on handling attacks and growth?

CZ: Regarding female KOLs, first, understand that the world isn’t perfectly fair; there are differences between men and women. Many women I work with are resilient and persistent but may be more emotionally affected. As KOLs, especially women, you need to learn to endure online criticism and attacks because a small subset will target women specifically. Accept these criticisms, ignore unimportant comments—that’s a personal choice.

For career development, choose projects with potential, especially stable large platforms or startups with potential. Binance is stable, but startups might offer equity or tokens for more opportunities. Also, choose the track that suits you—whether memecoin, utility coin, or other fields. The key is to pick an industry with room to grow; the crypto space offers that, while AI industry is less dependent on KOLs.

In summary, first choose the industry, then select quality clients or platforms—that’s the key to KOL growth.

What is the future plan for Binance Square’s live streaming section?

CZ: I’m not directly responsible for Binance product planning, but I personally hope to see a platform that allows users to communicate freely with high-quality content. When content creators or streamers can earn clear income and users enjoy high-quality content, the platform’s financial effects will naturally grow. Currently, Binance Square’s content leans toward trading and finance, with less entertainment. It should enhance fun and content quality.

Additionally, the platform should enable streamers to earn obvious rewards, and users can benefit by supporting content. Binance Square’s advantage lies in its trading platform features, making tipping, transfers, and social trading easy. I hope in the future, live streaming, chatting, trading, and payments can be fully integrated into a super app.

But specific plans depend on Binance’s two CEOs; I will try to stay out of it.

What is BNB’s next goal?

CZ: I won’t specify numbers; I have no concrete basis. I believe BNB’s ecosystem is relatively stable and very large. I am most proud that there are many developers (builders) here who are very active, and the community is strong. Currently, BNB’s community has huge growth potential. I personally hold a lot of BNB. So I am very optimistic about BNB’s future. I won’t talk about specific targets, but I believe community support will help us do better and better. Thanks everyone for your support!

What are your thoughts on community live streams and community tokens?

CZ: I can’t comment on individual tokens. As for policies on live streams, I’m not familiar with the details. Generally, Binance’s stance is to avoid politics and not engage in inappropriate content (such as pornography). Discussions about cryptocurrencies—including technology, tokens, market analysis, news—are all acceptable. Political topics are often not relevant to retail investors, but Binance’s official policy is to stay out of political discussions.

Regarding content in live streams and community tokens, as a basic principle, we should respect others and avoid actions that harm ourselves or others. I can’t comment on specific tokens or community tokens’ future development.

Will altcoins experience another boom?

CZ: About altcoins, everyone’s definition may differ. Overall, in the long run, the crypto space can’t be dominated by only Bitcoin. There are thousands of coins now; most of the top few hundred by market cap have real use cases or utility. So, the hype around altcoins will definitely re-emerge in the future.

Currently, Bitcoin as a “reserve currency” of digital assets is very stable, but it’s not suitable for daily trading due to high fees and limited programmability (no smart contracts). Therefore, in the short term, many public chains and different tokens will appear. These tokens will go through bull and bear cycles with market fluctuations.

As for future altcoin booms, they will definitely happen, but the timing, which coins will stand out, and their scale are hard to predict precisely. No one can forecast these details accurately.