Options Bet "Bitcoin Continues to Fall": 30% Chance of Breaking Below $80,000 by the End of June

2026-01-20 08:20:10

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As U.S. President Donald Trump once again wields the tariff stick, the cryptocurrency market is on edge today (20), with increased volatility. Bitcoin continues to decline, falling below $91,000, and data from the options market is ringing alarm bells: traders are heavily betting that Bitcoin will further decline, with a 30% chance of dropping below $80,000 before the end of June this year. Sean Dawson, Head of Research at decentralized derivatives trading protocol Derive.xyz, stated that the pricing structure of the options market clearly reflects investors’ defensive sentiment:

The options market shows a clear “Downside Skew.” The data model indicates a 30% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 before June 26; during the same period, the probability of breaking above $120,000 is only 19%.

For investors unfamiliar with derivatives, options are like “insurance” or “hedging agreements” in the financial market:

Call Options: Bet on price increases; profit if the price exceeds the strike price (bullish).
Put Options: Bet on price decreases; profit if the price falls below the strike price (bearish/hedging).

Currently, a large amount of capital is buying “puts,” reflecting traders’ widespread concern about the market’s outlook, fearing a replay of the “big crash” in April 2025. At that time, the global market was shaken by Trump’s imposition of comprehensive tariffs on multiple countries, causing Bitcoin to plunge to $75,000. Today, this wave of panic stems from the weekend’s eruption of the “Greenland Purchase Dispute.” Trump, after his proposal to acquire Greenland was rejected, threatened to impose a 10% tariff on 10 European countries, causing Bitcoin to quickly drop from $95,000 to around $91,000. Sean Dawson warned: “The tension between the U.S. and Europe over the Greenland issue is significantly increasing market risk. We may see the market environment return to high volatility, and the current spot prices have not fully reflected this risk.”

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