From ‘Absurd’ to Odds-On? Trump’s Greenland Push Sends Prediction Markets Buzzing

President Donald Trump’s recent flirtation with acquiring Greenland has drawn pushback from several European countries, prompting him to fire back with tariff threats slated for early February. The move has lit up prediction markets, where wagers now run into the millions over whether the U.S. actually pulls off a Greenland grab.

Once a Joke, Now a Trade: Trump’s Greenland Talk Draws Millions in Wagers

In 2019, Trump openly floated the idea of the United States buying Greenland from Denmark, pointing to strategic and economic motivations, only to see Danish officials swat it down as “absurd.” Since then, the U.S. President has dialed things up considerably, pressing for outright U.S. control of the island and pitching it as a necessary move in America’s expansionist playbook.

After several European countries voiced opposition, Trump jumped onto Truth Social on Saturday to warn that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland should brace for a 10% tariff on any and all goods shipped to the U.S. Reports suggest European Union leaders may dust off the anti-coercion instrument (ACI) as a counterpunch to Trump’s tariff plans.

Trump’s Greenland fixation has spilled straight into betting markets, with Kalshi and Polymarket now packed with wagers tied to the idea. A Kalshi wager titled “Will the U.S. take control of any part of Greenland?” currently prices the odds at 46.4%. The event has attracted more than $1.5 million in volume, with rules stating it resolves if any portion of Greenland falls under formal U.S. governance or jurisdiction, whether as a state, territory, or another designation within the U.S. system.

The “Will the U.S. acquire part of Greenland in 2026?” market on Polymarket assigns slim odds to the United States gaining sovereignty or primary control over any slice of Greenland by Dec. 31, 2026. The contract only resolves “Yes” if a binding legal action—such as a treaty, enacted legislation, or use of force—hands over sovereignty or establishes exclusive U.S. jurisdiction, with leases or basing rights clearly off the table.

As things stand, the Polymarket wager implies about a 25% chance of such a move, with trading volume closing in on $2.82 million. Over on Kalshi, a separate bet paints a cautious near-term picture for President Trump buying at least a slice of Greenland, though the odds stretch higher the farther out traders look. The market puts the chance at 11% before May 1, 2026, climbing to 26% before 2027. The rosiest window lands squarely within Trump’s current term, where the probability is marked at 43.9% before Jan. 20, 2029.

In short, traders largely view the idea as a long shot in the immediate future, but closer to a coin flip when measured across the full presidential term, based on nearly $3.9 million in volume traded on Kalshi. Another Polymarket wager tracking whether President Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 now prices the odds at 20%, reflecting a notable rethink over the past several weeks.

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The odds marched higher from the mid-single digits in late December 2025 to roughly 20% by mid-January 2026, a gain of about 13 percentage points over that stretch. With nearly $16.8 million in trading volume, bettors still see an acquisition as unlikely before 2027, but the upward shift signals far more conviction than where the market began on Polymarket.

The handful of prediction marketplace numbers associated with Greenland’s future tell a familiar story: skepticism upfront, curiosity over time, and a lot of money watching the clock. Traders aren’t betting the farm on a Greenland takeover tomorrow, but they’re no longer laughing it off either. With tariff threats flying, Brussels weighing countermeasures, and prediction markets steadily repricing the odds, Trump’s Arctic ambition has shifted from punchline to persistent wildcard—one bettors clearly aren’t ignoring.

FAQ 🇬🇱

• Why is Trump talking about Greenland again? President Trump has framed control of Greenland as a strategic and economic priority for U.S. interests.
• Which countries are opposing the Greenland proposal? Denmark and several European nations have pushed back, prompting tariff threats from the U.S.
• What are prediction markets saying about a Greenland deal? Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket see low short-term odds but higher probabilities over Trump’s full term.
• How much money is being wagered on Greenland outcomes? Combined trading volume across markets has climbed into the tens of millions of dollars.