Global Bet: Alex Honnold Climbs Taipei 101! The Prediction Market's Favorite to Reach the Top Within 90 Minutes

American legendary free climber Alex Honnold is about to challenge the limits of human capability once again. This time, the stage is no longer the majestic cliffs of Yosemite but the Taipei 101 skyscraper standing in the urban jungle. He will free climb the exterior of this 508-meter-tall skyscraper on January 24, 2026, with the entire event broadcast live on Netflix’s “Skyscraper Live,” streamed worldwide. The prediction market has also been active in this event, with over $310,000 wagered on Polymarket. The most popular betting window is between 1 hour 15 minutes and 1 hour 30 minutes.

Free solo climb of 101 floors! Honnold challenges the city skyline

Alex Honnold’s most famous feat to date is his 2017 free solo ascent of El Capitan in California, where he completed the approximately 900-meter-high Freerider route without ropes, a legendary achievement in the climbing world. His career also gained worldwide fame through the Oscar-winning documentary “Free Solo.” The difficulty of climbing Taipei 101 not only approaches Honnold’s past peak records in height but also marks the first time he will conquer one of Asia’s tallest buildings without ropes or safety gear.

According to the plan, Honnold will start from the ground and ascend along the glass curtain walls, steel framework, and concrete exterior of 101 floors, without any safety ropes, completing the climb entirely by hand.

Global attention! Live broadcast on Netflix and simultaneous screening at Xinyi Square

This live show, titled “Skyscraper Free Solo Taipei 101: Live,” will start at 9:00 AM Taiwan time on January 24 and is expected to last two hours. In addition to the global streaming platform, a large screen will be set up in Xinyi Square opposite Taipei 101, open to the public for free viewing. No Netflix subscription is required to witness this extreme feat in person.

During the event, five guests—including athlete Emily Harrington, science YouTuber Mark Rober, and wrestling star Seth Rollins—will join the live commentary, allowing viewers to not only watch the climb but also gain insights into the challenge’s significance and difficulty from multiple perspectives.

Betting frenzy! Online prediction markets speculate “How long will Honnold take to reach the top?”

The challenge has already caused a stir before it even begins. On the blockchain prediction platform Polymarket, a dedicated betting market has been set up: “How long will it take Alex Honnold to climb Taipei 101?”

As of January 21, the market has seen over $310,000 in trading volume. The most favored prediction is that he will complete the climb within 1 hour 15 minutes to 1 hour 30 minutes (37%), followed by 1 hour 30 minutes to 1 hour 45 minutes (20%). Only 4% believe he will finish within 1 hour, and 5% think he will fail.

These predictions reflect not only viewers’ assessments of Honnold’s physical ability and risk management but also highlight the international attention this extreme challenge has garnered.

Climb success criteria! Unfinished climbs will also be publicly announced

According to the prediction market rules, whether the challenge is considered “completed” will depend on whether Honnold follows the “official route” presented in the program.

If the program considers reaching the 101st floor as completing the climb, then Honnold reaching the 101st floor will be deemed successful; if the endpoint is the spire’s tip, then he must reach the very top to be considered finished.

If any of the following situations occur—such as postponement of the event to after January 31, Honnold abandoning midway, being forced into the building, or failing to reach the top—the climb will be marked as “not completed,” and the results will be officially announced during the live broadcast and related reports.

Traffic control measures in Xinyi District in response to the Taipei 101 climb

Due to the event, from January 21 to 24, roads around Xinyi District, such as Songzhi Road and Xinyi Road, will undergo traffic restrictions. Fences and filming equipment have been set up around Taipei 101 to ensure smooth broadcasting and public safety. The opposite side, Xinyi Square, will also have broadcast equipment and viewing areas, expected to attract large crowds on the day of the event. The shopping mall and observation deck inside Taipei 101 will operate normally, but the YouBike service in the area will be temporarily suspended. Citizens are advised to plan their transportation accordingly.

This article about global betting on Alex Honnold climbing Taipei 101! The prediction market’s most favored estimate is that he will reach the top within 90 minutes. The earliest prediction appeared on Chain News ABMedia.