【Madman Says Trend】 Bitcoin support is at $85,000 to $86,000, with a high probability of ultimately breaking below.

Madman Says… This wave of cryptocurrencies is really disastrous. When the US stock market rises, it doesn’t follow at all; when the US stock market crashes, it doesn’t drop either. Bitcoin’s daily chart has also fallen back from 97,000. Recently, this kind of back-and-forth fluctuation is considered garbage time. I am not making any moves and will continue to wait until Bitcoin hits a new low (below 80,000 USD) before starting to buy. Currently, the support at 85,000 USD to 86,000 USD still seems to hold, but given the current situation, the probability of breaking through is still high. All funds are now swirling in commodities and mainstream stock markets, completely ignoring the crypto market. First, because Bitcoin’s scale has grown, its volatility has significantly decreased, even lower than traditional markets. Second, the super-institutions’ main base is in traditional markets, so there’s no need to risk participating in the crypto market. This has led to the current predicament in the crypto market: small coins lack innovation, big coins lack volatility and narrative to attract capital. Even on X, discussions about the crypto circle are now very rare. Once attention shifts away here, it takes a long time to come back. So, the hellish difficulty of making money may continue for a while longer. Just be patient. Exchanges are offering capital-protected wealth management, and during high volatility, you can do some low-buy or high-sell strategies with dual currencies (higher interest during big swings at the same price). Just survive and hold on. Bitcoin’s strong global consensus is still in progress. Once Wall Street has accumulated most of the coins in the market and the casino infrastructure is built, it will start the next rally. Recently, the NYSE has opened its own crypto casino. When the infrastructure matures, it will be the time for governments and institutions to step in. Only then can the money truly start flowing into their pockets. Currently, for us, it’s a holding period—gradually dollar-cost averaging or buying on dips. The future of Bitcoin is almost unquestionable: stable and secure. Trump’s recent antics have caused chaos in the market, mainly due to the purchase or occupation of Greenland, leading to rumors of selling US bonds in Europe. Japan also shows similar tendencies. The 30-year US bond yield has surged to nearly 5%, greatly increasing the risk of dollar credit collapse. Gold and silver prices have skyrocketed, and the RMB and precious metals against the USD have also appreciated. It’s clear that, under no alternatives, people blindly rush into gold as a consensus. Bitcoin was clearly not recognized by global safe-haven funds this wave and was sold off as a risk asset. This situation won’t change in the short term, but the trend is irreversible. As Musk said, once AI and robots’ productivity emerge, human goods and basic needs will no longer be issues. At that time, currencies might become obsolete. The competition will be over energy—after all, paper money can be printed infinitely, while Bitcoin has a limited supply and energy value, serving as digital gold because its production relies entirely on energy and it has storage value. In the future, blockchain technology will better assist AI in data and payment applications. AI and blockchain will empower each other, bringing human society from a carbon-based world into a new carbon-silicon integrated world. Bitcoin and blockchain will complement each other and advance hand in hand. Whether choosing AI or cryptocurrencies, we have a bright future—only that this brightness will be progressive, not an eternal rocket upward.