Tap to Trade in Gate Square, Win up to 50 GT & Merch!
Click the trading widget in Gate Square content, complete a transaction, and take home 50 GT, Position Experience Vouchers, or exclusive Spring Festival merchandise.
Click the registration link to join
https://www.gate.com/questionnaire/7401
Enter Gate Square daily and click any trading pair or trading card within the content to complete a transaction. The top 10 users by trading volume will win GT, Gate merchandise boxes, position experience vouchers, and more.
The top prize: 50 GT.
 and decentralized finance (DeFi). This integration has long-term significance beyond short-term price fluctuations.
Last week, after Coinbase withdrew support for the bill, the US Senate Banking Committee delayed voting on the market structure bill draft. However, Garlinghouse holds a different view on the draft. He rebutted the saying “No bill is better than a bad bill,” stating: “We can’t let perfection be the enemy of good. What we need is a clear framework for innovation to thrive—and that’s what the market structure bill can provide. Clarity over chaos.”
The Senate Agriculture Committee will release the draft text on January 23 (Friday) and vote on January 27. Progress on the market structure bill remains a key factor for XRP’s short- to medium-term bullish outlook. Garlinghouse’s public stance indicates Ripple is actively pushing legislation rather than passively waiting, which positively influences investor confidence.
Technical Analysis: $2 is a Key Breakthrough Level
(Source: Trading View)
Despite the rebound on Wednesday, XRP remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish bias. However, positive fundamentals continue to offset technical negatives, supporting an optimistic market outlook.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
Support Levels: $1.85, $1.75, $1.50
50-Day Moving Average Resistance: $2.0537
200-Day Moving Average Resistance: $2.3035
Major Resistance Levels: $2.0, $2.5, $3.0, $3.66
On the daily chart, breaking above $2.0 will activate the 50-day moving average. Sustained breakout above the 50-day MA could signal a short-term trend reversal. An upward trend reversal would open the door for bulls to target $2.2. Breaking $2.2 would pave the way to challenge the 200-day MA. Notably, if the price continues to break above EMA lines, it would reaffirm medium- to long-term bullish targets.
Improved risk sentiment enhances the short-term (1-4 weeks) bullish outlook, with a target of $2.5. Optimism over the Senate passing the market structure bill, increased XRP utility, and strong demand for XRP spot ETFs remain key bullish catalysts. These factors support long-term targets: $3.0 in 4-8 weeks and $3.66 in 8-12 weeks.
Avoiding a drop below $1.85 and breaking above $2.0 are critical for the medium-short-term outlook. XRP broke the December low of $1.7712 and gained 6.29% in January, further strengthening bullish structure and near-term price expectations. Surpassing $2.0 would allow bulls to aim for the upward trendline. Breaking the trendline would confirm a trend reversal and validate bullish structure.
Conversely, if the price continues to fall below the downward trendline and drops below $1.85, the bullish structure would invalidate, indicating a trend reversal to bearish.
Downside Risks Could Undermine Bullish Outlook
Several factors could threaten this optimistic outlook, and XRP investors should monitor closely:
Key Risks
Hawkish BoJ stance: Announcing maintenance of neutral rates at 1.5%-2.5%, hinting at possible multiple rate hikes, which could unwind yen carry trades
Fed rate cut expectations cooling: Gradually reducing bets on rate cuts in early 2026, suppressing risk assets
Legislation delays: Further postponement of the market structure bill, dampening market confidence
ETF outflows: XRP spot ETF reports capital outflows, indicating waning institutional demand
These conditions could pressure risk assets, causing XRP to fall below $1.85, signaling a trend reversal. The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision (January 23), US economic data, and XRP spot ETF capital flows will be key indicators in the coming days.
Easing geopolitical tensions, increased expectations of Fed rate cuts in early 2026, and the Bank of Japan’s dovish neutral rate stance (possibly between 1%-1.25%) will boost market sentiment. Strong demand for XRP spot ETFs, increased utility, and progress on the market structure bill will further reinforce this constructive trend.
Looking ahead 12 weeks, positive developments could push XRP to reach a new all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). Surpassing $3.66 could set a target of $5 within 6 to 12 months. However, achieving these targets depends on multiple conditions: sustained easing of trade tensions, smooth legislative progress, continuous ETF capital inflows, and successful technical breakthroughs of key resistance levels.