Honored to climb Taipei 101! Polymarket prediction market accurately predicted the peak time

American extreme climber Alex Honnold challenged Taipei 101 on January 25, taking 91 minutes to reach the top, live on Netflix, covering 508 meters. Polymarket’s prediction that “1 hour 30-45 minutes” would be the outcome accurately hit with $548,000, but the use of a rope ladder at the tower’s tip sparked controversy. Scholars say this event reflects Taiwan’s desire to be “seen by the world.”

Honnold’s 91-Minute Ascent Jokes About Being Easier Than Outdoor Climbing

American extreme climber Alex Honnold successfully challenged Taipei 101 on January 25, climbing to the top of the 508-meter skyscraper in just 1 hour 31 minutes during a global Netflix live broadcast, without ropes or safety gear, and even brought a phone to take selfies. After the climb, Honnold and his wife Sanni McCandless gave media interviews, during which Honnold humorously said, “Taipei 101 is a family-friendly climbing spot,” causing Sanni to burst into laughter.

He explained that outdoor climbing often requires venturing into remote mountains with poor signal, staying in tents for months, and having limited contact with the outside world; in contrast, he could go home the day after the challenge, making him laugh, “This is pretty chill.” Although Honnold’s climbing process appeared relaxed, Sanni was visibly panicked during the live broadcast until she saw her husband reach the top, finally relaxing.

This “family-friendly” metaphor is humorous but also reflects the fundamental difference between city climbing and outdoor rock climbing. Honnold’s most famous achievement is his free solo ascent of El Capitan in Yosemite in 2017, which required weeks of camping in remote mountains, repeated training, and route memorization. In contrast, Taipei 101 is located downtown; Honnold stayed at a nearby hotel on the day of the challenge. This “commuting-style” extreme challenge indeed seems more “family-friendly.”

The 91-minute climbing time is moderate for city skyscraper challenges. In 2015, French “Spider-Man” Alain Robert took about 4 hours to climb Taipei 101 freehand, far slower than Honnold. His speed benefits from professional training and experience, as well as the relatively stable grip points provided by the building’s exterior structure.

Polymarket Prediction Market Accurately Hit $548,000

(Source: Polymarket)

This highly anticipated extreme challenge also sparked lively trading on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. In the contract asking, “How long will Honnold take to climb Taipei 101 freehand?” the final result fell into the “1 hour 30 minutes to 1 hour 45 minutes” range. The trading volume for this option was $548,452 (about NT$17.8 million), while the volume for predicting completion within 1 hour to 1 hour 30 minutes was $1,006,123.

This prediction market mechanism demonstrates the application of blockchain technology in forecasting real-world events. Participants analyzed factors such as Honnold’s past records, Taipei 101’s structural features, weather conditions, and more, betting real money. The trading volume exceeding $1.5 million shows the challenge attracted global speculators and Honnold fans. Ultimately, the “1 hour 30-45 minutes” option won, reflecting the market’s collective intelligence in predicting this extreme feat.

However, a dispute arose over another prediction contract asking, “Will Honnold complete the freehand climb?” Although Polymarket ultimately ruled the result as “Yes,” some participants objected, pointing out that the contract’s rules explicitly define “free solo” as climbing without ropes or protective gear. Opponents argued, based on the live footage, that Honnold used a rope ladder during the final stage near the tower’s tip, which they claimed violated the market’s rule of “completely rope-free” climbing.

This controversy highlights the challenge of defining rules in prediction markets. The strict standard for “free solo” in climbing is no artificial aids at all. But given the structural limitations at Taipei 101’s tip, whether using a rope ladder violates the rules is a gray area. Polymarket’s final ruling of “Yes” may be based on an interpretation of “main sections completed freehand,” but this ambiguity offers lessons for future contract design.

Netflix Live Broadcast Showcases Taiwan’s Geographical Features to the World

Netflix’s collaboration with Taipei 101 to broadcast the rope-free climb for the first time not only engaged local Taiwanese but also attracted global attention. Taipei 101 Chairman Jiao Yongjie emphasized that this broadcast demonstrated the building’s safety, cross-border cooperation, and risk management capabilities—an achievement of professional governance, not reckless gambling. President Lai Ching-te also praised Honnold’s courage and thanked the behind-the-scenes team for making the event visible to the world.

However, BBC reported that the live broadcast also raised concerns about excessive spectacle and potential imitation, with some climbing brands facing online backlash due to inappropriate social media posts. Taiwanese scholars analyze that this reflects a collective desire and anxiety within Taiwanese society to be “seen,” using international platforms to confirm their place on the world stage.

This “being seen” mentality operates deeply within Taiwanese society. As a geopolitical entity with a unique international status, Taiwan has long faced visibility challenges. Whenever major international events occur involving Taiwan, it triggers collective excitement and pride. Honnold climbing Taipei 101 and live streaming via Netflix provides a perfect stage to showcase Taiwan to the world. From this perspective, it is not just an extreme sports performance but also a successful international public relations event.

Jiao Yongjie emphasized “professional governance” rather than “reckless gambling” to address safety concerns. Organizing such high-risk activities requires complex risk assessments, insurance arrangements, emergency plans, and multi-party coordination. The Taipei 101 team began preparations months in advance, including structural safety inspections, climbing route planning, weather monitoring, and medical standby. This professionalism ensures the event proceeds under controlled risks rather than reckless adventure.

However, the BBC’s mention of imitation concerns is not unfounded. Honnold, as a top world-class climber with decades of training and countless practical experiences, sets a high standard. Ordinary people inspired by him attempting similar challenges could face disastrous consequences. Such concerns appear after every extreme sports media exposure. Balancing showcasing human limits and preventing dangerous imitation is a challenge for organizers and media alike.