Trading time: Gold and silver hit new highs again and again, with Bitcoin's next support zone between $84,000 and $86,000.

Daily Market Highlights and Trend Analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The global macro market is currently in a fierce storm triggered by geopolitical games, fiscal crises, and industry cycle resonances, with risk aversion and speculative fervor coexisting. As the US ICE shooting incident led to a breakdown in congressional budget negotiations, Polymarket data shows the probability of a US government shutdown before January 31 has soared to 79%. Coupled with Trump’s administration’s tariffs and island purchase threats against Canada and Greenland, as well as the deployment of the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier to the Middle East to address Iran tensions, the global “credit devaluation” trading has peaked. Spot gold has historically broken through the $5,000 mark, rising over 2.3% intraday to a high of $5,106, with US banks aggressively predicting it will reach $6,000 by spring 2026; spot silver, driven by AI and solar industry demand, broke $109 to hit a record high, with institutional bullish targets at $120.

In the forex market, expectations for a “Plaza Accord 2.0” involving US-Japan intervention have sharply increased. The NY Fed’s rare “ask” action prompted yen short covering, with USD/JPY falling over 1% to a low of 153. Meanwhile, the Korean market moved independently, with the Kosdaq index soaring 6%, mainly due to explosive growth in the semiconductor industry. Driven by AI demand, global storage chip supply is extremely tight; Samsung Electronics raised NAND flash prices by over 100% in Q1 and plans to continue price hikes in Q2. DDR4 spot premium rates reached 172%, prompting Goldman Sachs to maintain “buy” ratings on Samsung and SK Hynix, noting server ODM revenue has grown for 13 consecutive months, indicating a super cycle in the storage industry. US stocks face earnings reports from giants like Microsoft and Apple this week, but market sentiment is divided. Bloomberg strategists Mike McGlone and trader Peter Brandt both suggest shorting US stocks and the dollar, believing US assets are at their peak and declining, while Goldman Sachs strategists are optimistic about Asia but warn that prolonged global stock market corrections and geopolitical risks could trigger a reversal.

Bitcoin closed last week with a bearish candle, down over 7%, seeking support around $86,000. Matrixport notes BTC has lost the critical 21-week moving average, a key bull-bear dividing line, with no reversal signals. Technical analysts are generally pessimistic; Peter Brandt confirms a bear market channel and signals a sell, while EliZ suggests that if prices fall below $86,000/$85,800, they will seek liquidity around $84,500-$85,000. Daan Crypto Trades points out that $84,000-$85,000 will be an important support zone; Tai Bai analyzes a bearish weekly reversal, warning that if the trendline breaks, prices could drop to $70,000 or even $60,000. Roman remains bearish, targeting $76,000, while Rekt Capital warns that breaking below the macro triangle bottom at $82,000 could accelerate declines. Murphy emphasizes that losing the $87,000-$88,000 zone will undermine long-term holders’ confidence, with key support at $82,000. Despite this, bulls remain hopeful; Coinbase survey shows 71% of institutional investors believe BTC is undervalued at $85,000-$95,000, with Astronomer remaining bullish on the weekly chart and having entered long at $86,000. Sykodelic notes a CME gap at $89,500 and liquidity absorption around $86,000, while Castillo Trading sees Binance spot buybacks as the only market rebound signal. Placeholder partner Chris Burniske has outlined a laddered buying plan at $80,000, $74,000, and $58,000, indicating further accumulation if prices fall sharply.

Ethereum’s weekly decline is twice that of Bitcoin, dropping over 14%, briefly falling below $2,800, retracing over 40% from its all-time high, testing market confidence severely. Man of Bitcoin warns ETH has broken below the key $2,867 level, and if it drops below $2,773, the bullish pattern will be invalidated; BigBullMike believes only a return above $2,900 can stabilize the price. On-chain data intensifies panic; Whale Alert detected a dormant whale address that has been inactive for nine years suddenly waking up, transferring 50,000 ETH (about $1.45 billion) to Gemini, with a remaining balance of 85,000 ETH, potentially exerting selling pressure. However, Ted points out a rare divergence between ETH and the Russell 2000 index, hinting at a possible rebound in 2026, offering some hope for long-term investors.

In the altcoin market, Meme coins on Solana finally show signs of life. Over the weekend, the White House released AI images of Trump and a penguin heading to Greenland with the caption “Embrace the penguin,” leading Binance Alpha to list the Meme coin PENGUIN on Solana for the first time in a while. The token’s market cap surged over 30 times, reaching a peak of $173 million, but has since retreated to around $85 million. Additionally, the automation tool Clawdbot has gained attention for its practicality; despite controversy over token issuance, its $clawd token soared up to 720x, with a market cap reaching $17 million (now around $9 million), causing Mac Mini shortages.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, January 26)

(Source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $87,596 (+0.2% YTD), spot trading volume: $50.36 billion
• Ethereum: $2,895 (-2.26% YTD), spot trading volume: $30.47 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 20 (Extreme Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 59.2%, ETH 11.8%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume top: ENSO, NOM, AUCTION, XRP, ZKC
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 47.72% / 52.28%
• Sector performance: Overall decline in crypto market, GameFi leading decline at nearly 5%

24-hour liquidation data: total 166,148 traders liquidated, total amount $539 million, with BTC liquidations at $162 million, ETH at $149 million, XRP at $11.46 million.

3. ETF Flows (as of January 23)

• Bitcoin ETF: Net outflow of $1.328 billion this week
• Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $611 million this week
• XRP ETF: Net outflow of $40.64 million this week
• SOL ETF: Net inflow of $9.5736 million this week

4. Today’s Preview

• VanEck Avalanche spot ETF to list on Nasdaq on January 26
• Base network Perp DEX protocol RollX: first application deadline January 26
• Fabric plans to launch ROBO token, public sale on Kaito starting January 26
• Huma Season 2 airdrop Part 2 begins, application deadline January 26
• SEC and CFTC to hold joint “Regulatory Coordination” crypto event at 23:00 on January 27
• OKX to delist spot trading pairs including ULTI, GEAR, VRA, among others
• Impossible announces Flying Tulip pre-sale details, public round to start January 27
• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: to announce the new Federal Reserve Chair candidate as early as the week of January 26 (full week event)

Top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap today: River up 31.4%, Morpho up 1.6%, Algorand up 1.4%, LEO Token up 1%, Tether Gold up 0.8%.

5. Hot News

• Data: SIGN, JUP and other tokens will undergo large unlocks, with SIGN unlocking worth about $12.2 million
• Weekly Preview | SEC and CFTC to hold “Regulatory Coordination” joint crypto event; Moonbirds to launch BIRB token on Solana blockchain
• A wallet received 465,000 HYPE from Galaxy Digital OTC, worth $10.32 million
• Optimism releases Superchain anti-quantum roadmap: ECDSA EOA to be phased out over 10 years
• A dormant ETH whale address active after nine years transferred 50,000 ETH to Gemini, worth about $1.45 billion
• Spot silver first broke $107, up over $35 this month
• WLFI transferred USD 1 holdings rewards into Binance, totaling $40 million WLFI tokens
• Japan may lift crypto ETF ban by 2028, with SBI and Nomura pushing to develop related products
• Spot gold historically broke through $5,000
• Space pre-sale refund details: total $12.3 million, only 11%-21% refunded to the top 5% participants
• Tether Gold market cap surpasses $2.5 billion, hitting a new all-time high
• World Gold Council survey: 95% of central banks will continue buying gold, USD share of global forex reserves drops below 60%