Supply Side Life and Death: The Global Landscape of Tin, Antimony, Tungsten, Molybdenum and China's Core Position

Author: Jianwei Zhizhuo Miscellaneous Talks

Recently, I was recommended a few small metal stocks, and looking back, I can only say they are really fragrant. We shouldn’t wait until we’re caught in a trap to start researching; instead, we should do our homework before being caught. So I’ve recently launched a new series: Metal Mineral Research, to take a look at the landscape of various small metals.

Sometimes I find small essays very interesting, for example, a few days ago I mentioned the increase in explosive imports from the Wa State in Myanmar, and immediately tin prices dropped a bit, which hints at a potential supply logic.

【Reminder: Fundamentals are just fundamentals, not trading guidance】

Small metals are not necessarily small, especially in the context of industrial transformation. Once there is a technological breakthrough, small metals can very likely become strategic metals.

For example, before becoming “energy metals,” the market size of lithium was not large, mainly used in glass ceramics, lubricants, and other fields. But with the explosive growth of new energy vehicles and energy storage industries, lithium, as the core raw material for power batteries, saw demand and market size expand dramatically, fundamentally changing its status.

Magnesium is currently a clear potential next small metal for futures trading. The global magnesium market size is roughly in the million-ton range, mainly used in aluminum alloy additives, die-castings, and other fields. In the future, if magnesium undergoes major changes in lightweight materials (such as automotive, aerospace) or batteries, leading to a significant increase in production and consumption, it could be upgraded to a base metal or an independent category.

I have a deep memory of a segment from the previous Huaxia Dialogue with Everbright Qiu about the market sentiment:

“Strategic small metals, such as rare earths, tungsten-molybdenum, cobalt, nickel, tin, these varieties, will continue to be revalued in the future. The core logic is the global game backdrop; even if the US-China rivalry temporarily eases, in the long run, the strategic nature of metals will only strengthen. These metals must meet two conditions: either scarcity or concentrated supply chains.

For example, cobalt, with the Democratic Republic of Congo as the main supplier, considers cobalt supply an important bargaining chip, with political factors heavily influencing pricing; similarly, Indonesia’s nickel and tin are highly dependent on Indonesia and are inherently scarce, likely to become core varieties in the next round of competition. These varieties are either at the bottom or their value has not been fully realized yet, with significant room for revaluation in the future.”

This year’s strong performance in non-ferrous metals, aside from macro capital reasons, is mainly due to the huge challenges to global supply chain security (especially resource and mineral resource security).

China, as early as 2016, clarified its strategic mineral layout through top-level design: the State Council issued the “National Mineral Resources Planning (2016-2020),” with the core goal of “ensuring national economic security, national defense security, and the development needs of strategic emerging industries.” It officially included 24 minerals into the strategic mineral catalog, including core strategic metals such as chromium, aluminum, nickel, tungsten, tin, antimony, cobalt, lithium, rare earths, zirconium, crystalline graphite, oil, natural gas, shale gas, coal, coalbed methane, uranium, gold, iron, molybdenum, copper, phosphorus, potash, fluorite, etc., laying a resource security foundation for high-quality industrial development.

China has resource endowment and capacity advantages in tungsten, antimony, tin, and molybdenum—these are China’s four major strategic advantage minerals. Let’s look at the supply of these four minerals.

1. Tin supply sources

Tin mainly comes from cassiterite (SnO₂), which is the primary form of tin in nature, accounting for over 95% of global tin resources. There are also small amounts of yellow tin ore (Cu₂FeSnS₄) and other sulfide minerals, but their economic value is relatively low. Cassiterite is processed through beneficiation to produce tin concentrate, then refined via pyrometallurgy or hydrometallurgy to produce refined tin.

Data for 2025 is not yet fully released, but due to continued production halt in Wa State, Myanmar, output is expected to further decline below 20,000 tons, accounting for about 7%, with the top five producers accounting for 69%, and the top eight for 85%, indicating highly concentrated supply.

The impact of Wa State on the tin industry chain is significant because:

1. Historically large supply volume: Before the production halt in August 2023, Myanmar’s normal annual output was about 50,000-60,000 tons (15-20% of global supply), with Wa State contributing over 90% of Myanmar’s total, i.e., about 45,000-54,000 tons annually. This volume is roughly 1/6 of global supply, and its sudden halt creates a huge gap.

2. Critical for China’s tin exports: China is the world’s largest refined tin producer (about 45% of global), but domestic mines are exhausted and heavily reliant on imports. Myanmar was China’s largest tin ore import source, with about 36,000 metal tons imported in 2022, accounting for 60-70% of China’s total imports. Wa State’s suspension directly causes shortages for Chinese smelters.

3. Uncertainty in resumption: Although Wa State began resuming production processes in 2025, due to policies, equipment, rainy seasons, and other factors, actual progress is far below expectations. By the end of 2025, monthly exports are only 2000-3000 physical tons (about 1000-1500 metal tons), far below the pre-halt monthly average of 3000 metal tons.

4. Amplifies global supply-demand tightness: The global tin market has been in a long-term supply-demand balance (reserves-to-production ratio only 15 years). Any small fluctuation in major supply countries will be amplified. The “production halt - slow recovery” process in Wa State is the core driver of tin prices rising continuously in 2024-2025.

Tin ore rarely occurs alone; it is often associated with various metals and non-metallic minerals.

Associated deposits related to acidic granites: This is the most important type of tin deposit. In skarn-type (e.g., Shizhu Yuan deposit in Hunan) and cassiterite-sulfide types (e.g., Gexiu in Yunnan, Dachang in Guangxi), tin is often closely associated with tungsten, molybdenum, bismuth, copper, lead, zinc, silver, forming large-scale polymetallic mineral fields. In granitic-type deposits, tin tends to be associated with niobium, tantalum, lithium, beryllium, rubidium, cesium, and other rare elements.

Placer tin deposits: formed by weathering and transportation of primary tin ores. Besides cassiterite, placer deposits often contain natural gold, black tungsten, columbite, rutile, and monazite, making their comprehensive utilization highly valuable.

2. Antimony supply sources

Antimony mainly comes from stibnite (Sb₂S₃), the most important antimony ore in nature, accounting for over 80% of global antimony resources. There are also minor secondary minerals like antimony trioxide (Sb₂O₃). Stibnite is processed through beneficiation to produce antimony concentrate, then refined via pyrometallurgy or hydrometallurgy to produce metallic antimony or antimony compounds.

The top three producers (China, Tajikistan, Russia) account for 86.6%, with highly concentrated supply. China, though producing over half, has seen its share drop significantly from 90% in 2010, mainly due to tightening environmental policies and resource depletion.

Associated mineral assemblages:

Mainly formed in medium-low temperature hydrothermal environments: Most economically valuable antimony deposits form in medium-low temperature hydrothermal conditions. In such environments, stibnite often co-precipitates with cinnabar (mercury), pyrite, quartz, forming typical low-temperature hydrothermal deposits.

Different characteristic assemblages: 1) In the famous Hunan tin-antimony deposits, stibnite coexists with pyrite, realgar, orpiment, cinnabar, calcite, quartz; 2) When antimony mineralization overlaps with gold or tungsten mineralization, more complex deposits like antimony-gold-tungsten are formed.

3. Tungsten supply sources

Tungsten mainly comes from scheelite (CaWO₄) and wolframite ((Fe,Mn)WO₄), the two main tungsten minerals. Scheelite accounts for over 70% of global tungsten resources, wolframite about 25-30%. Scheelite is mainly produced in skarn deposits, wolframite in high-temperature hydrothermal quartz vein deposits. After beneficiation, tungsten concentrates (WO₃ ≥ 65%) are refined via pyrometallurgy or hydrometallurgy to produce ammonium paratungstate (APT), tungsten oxide, or metallic tungsten.

Tungsten market supply pattern:

1. China dominates supply but growth is sluggish: China is the largest tungsten producer (about 83% of global) and holds roughly 52% of global tungsten reserves. However, domestic tungsten mining is strictly controlled with total volume limits. Although the 2024 mining quota is set at 114,000 tons, actual output is 127,000 tons, indicating effective control of over-extraction. High-grade ore depletion and declining ore grades from long-term mining also constrain supply growth.

2. Limited new overseas supply: In 2024, global tungsten production outside China is about 14,000 metal tons, with dispersed sources. Key new supplies include projects like Bakutag tungsten mine in Kazakhstan, but their share in global supply is small and unlikely to change China’s dominant position in the short term.

3. Recycling tungsten is an important supplement: Besides primary ore, recycled tungsten (e.g., waste cemented carbide) is a significant source. Currently, about 35% of global tungsten supply comes from recycling, but China’s recycling rate and product quality still lag behind international standards.

Associated mineral assemblages:

Quartz vein and skarn deposits: Usually related to granite intrusions. Co-occurring minerals include scheelite, molybdenite, bismuth minerals, beryl, topaz, tourmaline, etc., often found in quartz veins at the top or near the granite bodies.

Skarn deposits: Formed at contact zones between intermediate-acid intrusions and carbonate rocks (limestone). The mineral assemblage differs from quartz vein deposits, often with scheelite associated with sulfides like chalcopyrite, galena, sphalerite, and molybdenite. The Shi Zhi Yuan deposit in Chenzhou, Hunan, is a world-class example, rich in tungsten, tin, molybdenum, bismuth, beryllium, fluorite, and other resources.

4. Molybdenum supply sources

Molybdenum mainly comes from molybdenite (MoS₂), the most important and economically valuable molybdenum mineral. It often coexists with copper and tungsten in porphyry deposits. After beneficiation to produce molybdenum concentrate (MoS₂ ≥85%), it is roasted or hydrometallurgically processed to produce molybdenum oxide, molybdenum iron, or ammonium molybdate, used in steel alloys and chemicals.

The five major producers (China, Peru, Chile, USA, Mexico) account for 91.9%, with highly concentrated supply; in 2024, global molybdenum reserves are about 15 million tons, with China holding 5.9 million tons (39.3%), and a reserve-to-production ratio of about 57 years.

China’s position in molybdenum market: “Resource + production + consumption”:

1. Resource endowment advantage: China’s molybdenum reserves account for nearly 40% of the global total (about 5.9 million tons in 2024), mainly primary molybdenum deposits with large scale and relatively high grade (e.g., Luanchuan molybdenum mine with an average grade of about 0.1%), giving China an advantage over many countries.

2. Absolute dominance in production: China’s molybdenum output exceeds 42% of the global total, maintaining the top position for many years. Unlike tin and antimony, China’s molybdenum industry is less dependent on imports, with over 90% self-sufficiency in raw materials, contrasting with the reliance on Myanmar for tin.

3. Complete industrial chain: China has a full industry chain from mining, beneficiation, smelting, to deep processing (molybdenum iron, molybdenum powder, molybdenum chemicals), with leading companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and China Molybdenum competing globally.

4. Major consumption market: China is also the world’s largest molybdenum consumer (about 130,000 tons in 2024, over 45% of global), mainly used in steel alloys (over 70%), forming a self-sufficient and self-sold closed loop.

5. Much of the global molybdenum is a by-product of copper mining: Many large porphyry copper mines are experiencing declining ore grades. Several major copper mines may reach the end of their mine life by the mid-2030s, which could constrain future molybdenum supply growth.

Associated mineral assemblages:

Porphyry copper/molybdenum deposits: The most important molybdenum deposits worldwide. In porphyry copper deposits (e.g., Dexing Copper Mine), molybdenite (MoS₂) is a by-product closely associated with copper sulfides. In porphyry molybdenum deposits (e.g., Luanchuan, Jindui City in Shaanxi), molybdenum is the main product but often associated with tungsten, rhenium, and other elements.

Skarn deposits: Formed at contact zones between intermediate-acid intrusions and carbonate rocks. Here, molybdenite often coexists with scheelite, forming molybdenum-tungsten combinations (e.g., Shi Zhi Yuan in Hunan), and can also be associated with various metal sulfides.

Quartz vein and skarn deposits: Usually related to granites. In tungsten-quartz veins, molybdenite is often present, sometimes with bismuth minerals and other sulfides.