Pi Network drops to No. 75! The unlocking wave on February 7 may trigger a new round of selling

Pi Network drops to a new low of $0.17, with a market cap falling below $1.5 billion, ranking 75th. In 30 days, 150 million coins will be unlocked, with a record 6.1 million on February 7. The overall market remains weak, but RSI has rebounded to 38, indicating a relief from oversold conditions. X users predict that in a few years, most people in emerging markets will own a Pi wallet.

Pi Network Breaks Below $0.17 to a New Low Since Listing

(Source: CoinGecko)

Just a few hours ago, the price of Pi Network’s PI token plummeted to $0.17, the lowest since trading began last February. Its market cap fell below $1.5 billion, making it the 75th largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Part of this decline may be due to overall market weakness, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping below $88,000 and Ethereum (ETH) briefly falling to $2,780. This panic sell-off across the market has put pressure on nearly all crypto assets, and as a smaller market cap project, Pi Network has borne a larger share of the selling pressure.

Looking at trading history, Pi Network only started trading on mainstream exchanges in February 2025, about a year ago. In this short period, PI has experienced a transition from initial curiosity and speculative buying to ongoing decline. Early on, many early miners sold off their holdings to realize profits, a common phenomenon for newly listed tokens. Over time, selling pressure should diminish, but PI’s price continues to fall, indicating market confidence in its long-term value remains lacking.

The fact that its market cap has fallen from its peak to 75th place reflects a significant underperformance relative to other crypto assets. During this year, many projects have grown in market cap due to technological breakthroughs, real-world applications, or institutional adoption, but PI has contracted. This relative weakness may stem from PI’s limited practical use cases, despite Pi Network’s claims of focusing on utility rather than speculation. Actual commercial applications and user activity may not have met expectations.

A price of $0.17 remains profitable for early users who mined PI for free. However, for investors who bought at higher prices after listing, current levels represent heavy losses. This huge difference in holding costs creates an unstable market structure—early holders may sell at any moment for profit, while trapped investors wait for any rebound to exit.

Record 6.1 Million Coins Unlocked on February 7

Several key factors suggest PI’s price has not yet hit a new bottom. Data shows that nearly 150 million tokens will be unlocked in the next 30 days, which could increase selling pressure by providing investors an opportunity to liquidate long-held assets. The average daily unlock amount is just under 5 million, significantly higher than in previous weeks and months. February 7 will be a record day, with about 6.1 million tokens unlocked.

This large-scale unlocking poses a serious threat to PI’s price. Unlocking means tokens previously locked cannot be traded and suddenly become available, increasing supply sharply. If demand does not grow in tandem, prices will inevitably fall. The 150 million unlock is a substantial increase relative to current circulating supply. More concerning is the pace—an average of 5 million per day implies ongoing supply pressure rather than a one-time shock. Continuous selling makes it difficult for prices to rebound effectively, as each rally may be suppressed by new unlock sell-offs.

The February 7 unlock of 6.1 million tokens is especially critical. This amount is 1.2 times the usual daily unlock, potentially causing concentrated selling on that day. If many unlockers choose to liquidate simultaneously, the market may be unable to absorb such a large sell order, leading to a sharp drop in price. Historically, many tokens have experienced volatility on large unlock days, and PI may be no exception.

This unlock schedule is part of Pi Network’s tokenomics design. To prevent excessive selling at launch, the project typically implements lock-up mechanisms, releasing tokens in batches. However, this design also makes each unlock a market focus and potential selling opportunity. For PI holders, understanding the unlock schedule and adjusting positions accordingly is an important risk management strategy.

RSI Falling Below 30 and Rebounding Indicates Oversold Relief

Despite the disappointing price performance over the past months, some X users remain optimistic about the project. Kosasi Nakomoto recently pointed out that for many crypto newcomers, Pi’s “wait-and-earn” model seems “naive,” but he predicts that in a few years, most people in emerging markets will own a Pi wallet. This long-term outlook is based on Pi Network’s high adoption in developing countries and low entry barriers.

Meanwhile, PI’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the worst may be over, with a potential short-term rebound. RSI ranges from 0 to 100, indicating whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Below 30 signals short-term overselling and potential rebound; above 70 indicates bearish momentum. Recently, RSI dipped below 30 and then rebounded to 38.

A fall below 30 in RSI is a classic oversold signal, implying short-term selling pressure is excessive and the asset may be undervalued. When RSI recovers from oversold levels, it often signals diminishing selling pressure and increasing buying interest. The RSI’s rebound from below 30 to 38 suggests the most panic-driven sell-off may have ended. However, RSI at 38 remains in a relatively weak zone (below 50), meaning bears still hold dominance, just with slightly reduced strength.

From a technical perspective, oversold rebounds are usually short-lived, with limited magnitude and duration. If PI bounces from $0.17, resistance levels might be around $0.20–$0.22. But such a rebound is more likely a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. Unless fundamentals improve significantly or unlock sell-offs are absorbed, PI’s long-term downtrend may continue.

For investors, current conditions are high-risk and uncertain. Optimists see $0.17 as a bottom, expecting an oversold rebound and long-term growth in emerging markets. Pessimists believe large-scale unlocks are still ahead, and selling pressure will continue to suppress prices, possibly testing lower levels of $0.15 or even $0.10. Given these differing views, a cautious approach involves small positions, strict stop-losses, and close monitoring of the February 7 unlock event.