SpaceX IPO valuation $1.5 trillion! Four major investment banks prepare for an epic fundraising

SpaceX has joined forces with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America to prepare for the IPO. It is planned to go public in 2026, with a valuation of US$1.5 trillion, and raising more than US$250 billion will surpass Saudi Aramco’s record of 290 billion. Musk used to insist that Starlink would not be listed before it was stable, but now the conditions are ripe.

The four major investment banks entered the market at the same time to release super signals

According to the latest reports from The Economist and the Financial Times, SpaceX has begun preparing for an IPO with a number of top Wall Street investment firms. The named investment institutions include Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America, four investment banks that almost monopolize the underwriting business of IPOs of the world’s most heavyweight technology companies.

It is not uncommon for any company to “test the waters” for an IPO, but the signal is already very clear when it comes to connecting with four top investment banks at the same time: SpaceX is not “trying to see”, but is seriously evaluating a super-large-scale listing plan. This build-up usually means three things: the size of the listing may be large, the value of the valuation is high, and the complexity of the project is extremely high (involving business diversification, international regulation, strategic investor coordination).

Morgan Stanley has extensive experience in technology IPOs and has led mega-listings such as Facebook and Airbnb. Goldman Sachs is known for its financial engineering and valuation models, which can provide accurate pricing for complex business models. JPMorgan Chase has a strong network of institutional investors to ensure that the IPO is fully subscribed. Bank of America has deep research and accumulation in the satellite communications and aerospace industries. The combination of four investment banks covers all the professional capabilities required for a SpaceX IPO, a “dream lineup” that is extremely rare in IPO history.

What’s more noteworthy is that the simultaneous entry of these four investment banks also means that the complexity of SpaceX’s IPO may surpass that of any previous technology company. SpaceX’s business spans satellite launches, satellite internet, manned spaceflight, Mars exploration and other fields, and the valuation logic of each business line is different. How to reasonably package these businesses and clearly present them to investors requires the professional capabilities of top investment banks. In addition, SpaceX involves sensitive issues such as national security and international competition, and regulatory coordination in the listing process is extremely difficult, which is why multiple investment banks need to work together.

$1.5 trillion valuation and ambition to raise $250 billion

According to Oriental Fortune Network, SpaceX’s IPO is expected to raise tens of billions of dollars, likely surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $290 billion funding record set in 2019 and becoming the largest public listing in history. According to media reports, SpaceX plans to go public in 2026 and is currently valued at $1.5 trillion, hoping to raise more than $250 billion.

What does a $1.5 trillion valuation mean? This figure is close to Tesla’s current market capitalization of 1.5 times and more than 10 times the combined market capitalization of Boeing and Airbus. This valuation level indicates extreme optimism in the capital market about SpaceX’s future growth. The core support for the valuation comes from three major business segments: Starlink satellite internet, commercial launch services, and long-term Mars colonization plans.

Starlink is the biggest driver of valuation. By the end of 2025, Starlink has more than 300 paying users worldwide, with annual revenue exceeding $60 billion. What’s more, Starlink’s user growth curve is still accelerating, especially in the aviation, maritime and remote markets. If Starlink can reach Musk’s goal of 4000 users, it will have annual revenue of more than $800 billion, which will make it the world’s largest satellite communications company.

commercial launch services are a stable source of cash flow. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket has become reusable, with launch costs reduced to one-tenth of traditional rockets. In 2025, SpaceX completed more than 100 orbital launches, accounting for more than 70% of the global commercial launch market share. This monopolistic position allows SpaceX to consistently secure high-margin orders, including contracts from NASA, the U.S. Space Force, and commercial satellite operators worldwide.

Although the Mars project is far away, it has a “vision premium”. Musk’s Starship Super Heavy rocket is in the testing phase and, once successful, will usher in a new era of human interstellar travel. Although the commercial payback period of Mars colonization is extremely long, this narrative of “human civilization backup” adds unique brand value and investor appeal to SpaceX.

The $250 billion fundraising scale will be mainly used for Starlink’s global expansion, Starship’s R&D and manufacturing, and the construction of global launch facilities. This capital investment will further solidify SpaceX’s leading position in commercial spaceflight, forming a moat that is difficult to challenge from competitors.

Why did Musk choose to let go of the listing now?

Over the past few years, Musk has repeatedly publicly stated that he will not push for SpaceX to go public until Starlink’s business is stable. This persistence is not accidental, but based on vigilance against short-termism in the capital market. Listed companies face quarterly earnings pressure and are often forced to sacrifice long-term R&D investments to meet Wall Street’s short-term expectations. For the aerospace industry, which requires continuous huge investments and extremely long payback periods, this pressure can be fatal.

Now, several key conditions are maturing at the same time, causing Musk to change his position. First, Starlink users are growing rapidly and their cash flow is turning positive. Starlink achieved annual profitability for the first time in 2024, which means that the business has moved from the money-burning stage to the harvest period. With stable cash flow, SpaceX is able to maintain its investment in long-term projects after listing without being forced to make short-sighted decisions.

Secondly, the continuous reduction in satellite launch costs has made the business model more stable. The Falcon 9’s reusable technology has matured, and the marginal cost per launch has dropped to about $1500, well below the $6000 to $2M for a single-use rocket. This cost advantage not only improves profit margins, but more importantly, allows SpaceX to provide services at prices far lower than competitors, forming a price butcher-style market strategy.

Third, the renewed recovery of global capital markets has created a favorable environment for large IPOs. The period between 2023 and 2024 was extremely sluggish due to high interest rates and economic uncertainty. But in 2025, as inflation eases and central bank policy shifts, investors’ risk appetite picks up, and big tech IPOs regain market popularity. This time window may be fleeting, and Musk’s choice to push for listing at this time shows a precise grasp of market timing.

In addition, Musk’s personal capital needs may also be one of the considerations. Tesla’s stock price has experienced sharp fluctuations between 2024 and 2025, and a significant portion of Musk’s Tesla shares have been used for pledge loans. After SpaceX goes public, Musk can sell some of his SpaceX shares to pay off debt or make other investments without having to continue selling Tesla shares in large quantities.

Starlink stability has become the final threshold for listing

Musk’s past stance of not going public until Starlink stabilizes shows that the performance of this business is the final threshold for a SpaceX IPO. So, what is Starlink’s current stability? From multiple dimensions, this business has reached the standard of marketability.

In terms of user size, Starlink has grown from 200 users at the end of 2023 to over 300 users by the end of 2025, with an annual growth rate of more than 50%. What’s more, the Churn Rate has fallen below 5%, which is a healthy level for subscription-based businesses. High retention means that Starlink has found product-market fit and is no longer an experimental product.

In terms of network coverage, SpaceX has launched more than 5,000 Starlink satellites, forming a global coverage network. Although there is still a problem of speed drops in some areas during peak hours, the overall service quality has reached a level that can compete with terrestrial broadband. Especially in remote areas, aviation and maritime markets, Starlink has few competitors, forming a unique market position.

In terms of revenue predictability, Starlink uses a monthly subscription model, which has stable and predictable cash flow. This predictability is what investors value most because it makes valuation models more reliable. In contrast, launch services have high profit margins but large order fluctuations, making it difficult to provide stable quarterly results. Starlink’s maturity provides SpaceX with a stable revenue base, which is key to maintaining a stable stock price post-listing.

In terms of regulatory risks, Starlink has been licensed to operate in more than 60 countries and regions around the world, and although it still faces regulatory challenges in some countries, the overall legal framework has been established. This compliance clears the way for SpaceX’s global expansion post-listing.

Can retail investors participate in this epic IPO?

A realistic question is: Can the average investor buy SpaceX’s IPO shares? The short-term answer is: it’s hard. The long-term answer is: yes, but the threshold will not be low.

During the IPO issuance stage, stock allocation is still dominated by underwriters (investment banks), who usually prioritize the following when distributing: large institutional investors (funds, insurance, sovereign funds), strategic long-term investors, high-net-worth clients, and ordinary retail investors (if available). The reason for this distribution logic is very realistic: institutions place orders on a large and stable scale, will not sell in the short term, and have an “endorsement effect” to stabilize the stock price.

The SpaceX IPO will remain institutionally dominated, with over 90% of the shares expected to be distributed to institutional investors. For ordinary retail investors, whether they can participate depends on whether the brokerage they use has obtained underwriting shares. Some large brokerages such as Fidelity, Charles Schwab, etc. may offer small quotas to their high-net-worth clients, but the competition will be extremely fierce.

But one thing is certain: once listed, SpaceX will become one of the most watched tech stocks in the world. Retail investors can buy on the secondary market, and while they may miss the surge on the first day of the IPO, they can still participate in SpaceX’s long-term growth story. From historical experience, the stock price growth of truly great technology companies (such as Amazon, Google, Tesla) mainly occurs in the years or even decades after listing, and IPOs are only the starting point rather than the end.