MICA Daily｜CryptoQuant: The crypto market keeps falling, who is actually selling off?

Bitcoin’s recent pullback has once again raised investor questions: is this due to miners selling off, whales dumping, or a more complex situation? Traffic data shows that the current situation resembles a controlled “digestive period” at the early stage of a bear market rather than a chaotic crash. First, looking at miner data, the Miner Position Index (MPI) reached multiple peaks of +2 to +3 when prices were between 110,000 and 120,000 USD, indicating miners were actively liquidating their holdings at that time. Since Q4 last year, MPI has shrunk to around zero, recently dropping to about -1.5, which suggests miners’ current selling volume is below their one-year average.

Similarly, the Miner Netflow Total also reflects the same situation: large outflows occurred mid-2025, followed by small inflows close to zero, indicating miners have already handed over a large amount of chips to the market. They are not the primary source of current sell-offs. Looking at exchange data, the Exchange Reserve has continued to decline from approximately 2.95 million BTC to about 2.73 million BTC. Even after the price correction, the structural spot holdings on exchanges remain relatively low. Exchange net flow has shifted from persistent outflows to occasional small inflows, indicating some risk hedging and offsetting behaviors rather than widespread panic selling. Finally, examining large investors “whale” data, the Exchange Whale Ratio is currently in the recent high range of 0.4 to 0.6. While whales dominate small inflows, their absolute recharge volume is far below previous peaks. This suggests the current activity is tactical and price-sensitive “distribution,” rather than a full-scale capitulation sell-off.