PaiCoin drops below $0.18! Fear Index crashes, is the next wave of liquidation coming?

Pi Network trading price approaches $0.1744, despite the testnet USDT trading volume reaching 59,000 tokens indicating active community participation, the mainnet token faces heavy selling pressure. PiScan data shows over 1,300,000 PI tokens flooded into centralized exchanges within 24 hours, with approximately 1,120,000 flowing into exchanges.

Pi Network Testnet USDT Wallet Functionality Upgrade

Pi Network is accelerating ecosystem adoption through simulated USDT features in the testnet wallet. This functionality allows users to experience decentralized finance (DeFi) tools in a risk-free environment, including peer-to-peer transfers, liquidity pools, and token swaps, simulating real on-chain financial operations. According to the community account Pi Network Alerts, the development team encourages pioneer users to participate more actively in the testnet, viewing this as a necessary preparatory stage before full mainnet deployment.

The testnet is designed to help users build confidence in using decentralized tools without financial risk. Simulating a stablecoin environment enables the Pi community to understand how DeFi products operate in real-world applications, while also helping developers identify potential vulnerabilities and interface issues. The ultimate goal of this practical training is to facilitate smoother adoption and immediate operation of new systems once the mainnet goes live.

Community testers report that nearly 59,000 test USDT tokens have circulated through the wallet. This data indicates increasing interaction as users send, receive, and manage digital assets in a controlled environment. The Pi testnet wallet interface resembles real DeFi platforms, allowing pioneers to gain experience without risking actual funds.

The Pi team is also collecting valuable user feedback during this phase. Metrics such as trading volume and wallet activity help the team understand how users might interact with the platform in the future, informing updates and improvements before full launch. However, the active engagement on the testnet contrasts sharply with the weak mainnet token price, highlighting a significant gap between market valuation and community enthusiasm.

1.3 Million Tokens Flood Into Exchanges Triggering Liquidation Concerns

Despite progress on the testnet, Pi tokens are facing significant pressure in the open market. PiScan data shows over 1,300,000 PI tokens flooded into centralized exchanges within 24 hours, sparking serious concerns among investors about imminent liquidation risks. Most of these tokens (about 1,120,000) flowed into the OKX exchange, suggesting possible coordinated selling behavior.

Token inflows into centralized exchanges are generally viewed as bearish signals, indicating holders preparing to sell. Conversely, outflows to personal wallets are often interpreted as long-term holding intentions. The massive and concentrated inflow of tokens suggests that market participants expect substantial short-term selling pressure.

Market sentiment data further confirms this pessimism. According to CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index, the current sentiment score is 29, categorized as “Fear.” This index combines factors such as volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment, and Bitcoin dominance. Typically, a score below 20 indicates extreme fear, potentially leading to sharp price declines, while 29 shows the market is in a clear state of fear.

Sources of Market Pressure on Pi

Exchange Inflows: 1,300,000 PI in 24 hours into CEX

Concentration Risk: About 1,120,000 tokens flowing into a single exchange, OKX

Fear Index: CMC Fear & Greed Index at 29, indicating investor lack of confidence

Relative Performance: Pi underperforms compared to major altcoins like ETH, BNB, SOL

Continued token inflows often signal preparations for liquidation. This trend, combined with weak market sentiment, increases the risk of further declines. The macro environment also makes investors more cautious, with liquidity fragile and regulatory uncertainties affecting capital flows. As a result, many short positions on Pi appear to be adjusting or closing, creating a negative market cycle.

RSI 22 Deeply Oversold, Still Bearish at $0.15

At press time, Pi’s price is near $0.1744, up slightly 1% intraday after a 5% decline earlier. However, this rebound is insufficient to offset its over 13% weekly drop, and technical analysis suggests it may be a brief pause within a downtrend.

From a technical perspective, the outlook remains bleak. The daily RSI is at 22, deeply into oversold territory. RSI measures the speed and change of price movements; values below 30 are considered oversold, with 22 indicating extremely strong selling pressure. This suggests sellers still dominate the market, and while oversold conditions can trigger technical rebounds, current market sentiment casts doubt on sustained recovery.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also confirms a bearish outlook. It remains below the signal line and the zero line, indicating ongoing downside momentum. MACD, composed of the fast (12-day EMA), slow (26-day EMA) lines, and histogram, signals a strong bearish trend when the fast line stays below the slow line and both are below zero.

If current conditions persist, Pi may test the January 19 low of $0.1502. This level is a key support, representing the previous low during correction. Breaking below this support could trigger further sell-offs and accelerate declines into deeper support zones. In technical analysis, this “breakdown acceleration” pattern often triggers stop-loss orders and panic selling.

Conversely, if market sentiment improves, Pi could rebound toward $0.2000. Rising volume might push prices higher, with the 50-day moving average at around $0.2045 serving as a significant resistance. However, unless overall market sentiment improves or Pi Network releases major updates (such as a mainnet launch schedule or key partnerships), such a rebound remains unlikely.

Deep Contradiction Between Testnet Activity and Mainnet Price

The biggest contradiction Pi faces is the stark divergence between testnet activity and mainnet token price. The circulation of nearly 59,000 test USDT tokens indicates increased community engagement, but this has not translated into actual demand for the mainnet token. This divergence reveals several key issues.

First, testnet activity involves no real funds, making participation extremely low-risk. Users can experience features without risking real money, but this does not equate to willingness to invest actual capital on the mainnet. Testnet engagement may reflect curiosity rather than genuine valuation.

Second, the progress of the mainnet remains uncertain with no clear timeline. Although testnet features expand, when the mainnet will fully open and achieve true decentralization is still unknown. This uncertainty causes many investors to hold back or exit, putting downward pressure on the token price.

Third, the inflow of 1.3 million tokens into exchanges suggests some early participants or whales are choosing to exit. This may reflect lack of confidence in the project’s long-term prospects or normal profit-taking behavior. Regardless of motivation, such large-scale selling poses a real threat to the price.

For Pi investors, the current situation warrants caution. Technical bearish signals, abnormal exchange inflows, and low fear index all point to potential further downside in the near term. The support at $0.1502 will be a critical level to watch; if broken, it could trigger deeper corrections.