Silver enters the three-digit era, and the 8-year-old "Bitcoin Bible" prophecy is brutally proven wrong?

Written by: David, Deep Tide TechFlow

In 2020, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor finished a book and decided to buy $425 million worth of Bitcoin.

The book is called “The Bitcoin Standard,” published in 2018, translated into 39 languages, with over a million copies sold, and revered by Bitcoin enthusiasts as the “Bible.”

The author, Saifedean Ammous, holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University, and his core argument is simple:

Bitcoin is a “hard currency” more durable than gold.

At the same time, on the book’s promotional page, Michael Saylor’s endorsement reads:

“This book is a masterpiece of genius. After reading it, I decided to buy $425 million worth of Bitcoin. It has had the greatest influence on MicroStrategy’s way of thinking, leading us to shift our balance sheet towards Bitcoin.”

But there’s a chapter in this book that isn’t about Bitcoin. It discusses why silver can never become a hard currency.

Eight years later, silver has just hit a new high of $117, and the gold and silver investment frenzy continues. Even Hyperliquid and several CEXs are launching precious metal contracts in various forms.

In such times, there are always whistleblowers and turncoats warning of risks, especially in environments where everything is rising except Bitcoin.

For example, today on crypto Twitter, a widely circulated post includes a screenshot of page 23 from this book, with a highlighted paragraph that reads:

Every silver bubble will burst, and the next one won’t be an exception.

The History of Silver Speculation

Don’t rush to criticize; let’s first understand what this core argument really is.

The main point in the book is called stock-to-flow, the ratio of existing stock to annual flow. OG Bitcoiners are probably familiar with this theory.

In plain terms, for something to become a “hard currency,” the key is how difficult it is to increase its supply.

Gold is hard to mine. The total above-ground gold stock is about 200,000 tons, with less than 3,500 tons added annually. Even if the price doubles, miners can’t suddenly produce twice as much gold. This is called “supply rigidity.”

Bitcoin is even more extreme. Its total supply is capped at 21 million coins, halving every four years, and no one can change the code. It’s scarcity created by algorithms.

What about silver?

The highlighted part in the book roughly states: Silver bubbles burst, and future bubbles will burst too. Because once a large amount of capital flows into silver, miners can easily increase supply, crashing the price and evaporating savers’ wealth.

The author also cites an example: the Hunt brothers.

In the late 1970s, Texas oil tycoons Hunt brothers decided to corner the silver market. They bought billions of dollars worth of silver and futures contracts, pushing the price from $6 to $50, setting a record high at the time.

And then? Miners flooded the market with silver, exchanges raised margin requirements, and the silver price collapsed. The Hunt brothers lost over $1 billion and eventually went bankrupt.

Therefore, the author concludes:

Silver’s supply elasticity is too high, making it impossible to serve as a store of value. Every time someone tries to hoard it as a “hard currency,” the market teaches them a lesson through increased production.

This logic was written in 2018 when silver was at $15 an ounce. Nobody paid much attention.

Is this round of silver different?

For the above logic about silver to hold, a premise is needed: when silver prices rise, supply can keep up.

But 25 years of data tell a different story.

Global silver mine production peaked around 2016 at about 900 million ounces. By 2025, this number will have fallen to 835 million ounces. Prices have increased sevenfold, yet production has shrunk by 7%.

Why doesn’t the “price up, supply up” logic work anymore?

One structural reason is that about 75% of silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, zinc, and lead mining. Mining decisions depend on the prices of these base metals, not silver. Silver prices double, but if copper doesn’t rise, mines won’t produce more silver.

Another reason could be timing. New mining projects take 8 to 12 years from exploration to production. Even if they start immediately now, no additional supply will be seen before 2030.

As a result, there have been five consecutive years of supply shortfalls. According to the Silver Institute, from 2021 to 2025, the global silver deficit will total nearly 820 million ounces, almost equivalent to a full year’s global mine production.

Meanwhile, silver inventories are also nearing bottom. The London Bullion Market Association’s deliverable silver stock has fallen to just 155 million ounces. The lease rate for silver has soared from normal levels of 0.3%-0.5% to 8%, meaning someone is willing to pay an 8% annual cost just to secure the spot.

Another new variable: starting January 1, 2026, China will impose export restrictions on refined silver, allowing only state-owned enterprises with annual capacity over 80 tons to obtain export licenses. Smaller exporters are effectively shut out.

During Hunt brothers’ era, miners and holders could manipulate the market through increased production and selling.

This time, the supply side may not have enough bullets.

Speculation and Necessity

When Hunt brothers hoarded silver, it was a currency speculation. Buyers thought: prices will rise, so they hoard to sell later.

The driving force behind silver’s rally in 2025 is entirely different.

Let’s look at some data. According to the World Silver Survey 2025, in 2024, industrial demand for silver reached 680.5 million ounces, a record high. This accounts for over 60% of total global demand.

What is industrial demand for?

Photovoltaics. Every solar panel requires silver paste for conductivity. The International Energy Agency predicts that global photovoltaic capacity will quadruple by 2030. The PV industry is now the largest single industrial buyer of silver.

Electric Vehicles. A traditional fuel car uses about 15-28 grams of silver. An electric vehicle uses 25-50 grams, with higher amounts in premium models. Silver is used everywhere: in battery management systems, motor controllers, charging interfaces.

AI and Data Centers. Servers, chip packaging, high-frequency connectors—silver’s conductivity and heat dissipation are irreplaceable. This demand has accelerated since 2024, with the Silver Institute specifically listing “AI-related applications” in its reports.

In 2025, the US Department of the Interior added silver to its list of “Critical Minerals.” The last update to this list included lithium and rare earths.

Of course, maintaining high silver prices can trigger a “silver saving” effect—some photovoltaic manufacturers are already reducing silver paste per panel. But the Silver Institute predicts that even considering silver-saving effects, industrial demand will remain near record levels over the next 1-2 years.

This is essentially rigid demand, a variable that Saifedean perhaps didn’t foresee when writing “The Bitcoin Standard.”

A Book Can Also Be a Psychological Cushion

The narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” has recently been silent in the face of real gold and silver.

The market calls this year the “Debasement Trade”: a weakening dollar, rising inflation expectations, geopolitical tensions, capital flowing into hard assets for safety. But this flight to safety has favored gold and silver, not Bitcoin.

For Bitcoin extremists, this requires an explanation.

So that book becomes a kind of reference and ideological defense: silver is in a bubble now, and when it bursts, you’ll see who’s right.

It’s more like a narrative self-preservation.

When your assets underperform the market for an entire year, you need a framework to explain “why I am still right.”

Short-term prices don’t matter; long-term logic does. The logic for silver is flawed; Bitcoin’s logic is correct. Therefore, Bitcoin will inevitably outperform—only a matter of time.

Is this logic self-consistent? Yes. Can it be falsified? Very difficult.

Because you can always say “not enough time has passed.”

The problem is, the real world waits for no one. Brothers holding Bitcoin and altcoins, still steadfast in crypto circles, are genuinely anxious.

Bitcoin theories written eight years ago can’t automatically account for the reality of no price increase over the next eight years.

Silver is still surging, and we sincerely wish Bitcoin good luck.