Everyone can make money in cryptocurrency! A veteran of the crypto world since 2013 shares with you the survival rules to navigate through bull and bear markets.

Pickle Cat, based on multi-cycle experience, points out that the true winners in crypto are those who can preserve their gains. The key lies in consensus evolution, behavioral change, and long-term beliefs, rather than short-term price movements.

The article “Fearless in Bull and Bear Markets: Crypto Survival Rules” received 2.33 million views on Twitter. The author, Pickle Cat, bought his first Bitcoin in 2013 and has experienced multiple cycles since then. He openly states that in this circle, “winning” is never defined by how much money you make. Everyone who has engaged in this space can at least make money once, no matter how inexperienced or how small their principal, they can become a temporary genius.

“Winning” means you have earned money and, today, you can still hold onto it after many years. This is not a contest of who earns the most or doubles the fastest, but who can survive until the end. After the 1011 event, after discussions with friends who have survived multiple cycles, he began to reflect: why can some survive in this cyclical bloodbath while others are forced to retreat? How can one maintain hope when tortured in a bear market? And what must you do to become the person described above? This article clarifies:

• What exactly can make the crypto market bullish again, and how to distinguish market initiation from a dead cat bounce?
• How to improve your chances of catching the next big trend?
• What common traits do those who can cross multiple cycles and continue to profit share?

Why the crypto market stagnates and what drives its strength

Pickle Cat states that whenever people ponder why the crypto market is stagnant, the answers are almost always the same:

• No new narrative has emerged
• Institutions have not fully entered
• The technological revolution has not yet exploded!
• Blame those market makers and KOLs
• Or point to some exchange/project/company messing up

However, after multiple cycles, he observes that the strength of the crypto market is never because it becomes more like traditional systems, but because it reminds people of the flaws of the old systems. The stagnation is not due to a lack of innovation or liquidity issues. Essentially, it is because:

• Capital is uninterested
• Sentiment has been exhausted
• The existing consensus can no longer answer “why should we care about this market”

Most people believe the next cycle will be triggered by a “better, more explosive” product, feature, or narrative. But these are just the effects, not the causes. The real turning point will only appear after a deeper consensus upgrade is completed. That’s why some keep chasing the next hot spot, trying to be the ultimate diamond hand, only to find they entered too late or bought air coins.

Difference between consensus and narrative

Every cycle that pulls the crypto world out of winter is always the same: the evolution of consensus. In this space, consensus refers to humans finding a new way to use crypto assets as a medium to financialize certain abstract elements (like faith, judgment, identity, etc.) and to coordinate large-scale collaboration around them.

Consensus is not the same as narrative. Most people’s cognitive bias starts here.

In the crypto world, “narrative” is just a story, while “consensus” is group behavior. Only when a new model enables a large number of participants to engage in repeatable, sustainable cooperation using crypto assets, will a true big cycle unfold.

A quick look at the crypto history shows that the underlying of all narratives is aggregation, and this is precisely what consensus is.

• 2017 ICO boom: the first realization of global permissionless capital coordination, turning ideas into finance
• 2020 DeFi Summer: transforming crypto assets from speculative targets into practical financial tools
• 2021 NFT wave: reshaping social and cultural behaviors, turning wallets into identity and community passports

He emphasizes that what truly matters is not token prices, but whether these cycles leave behind new behavioral habits. Even if bubbles burst, as long as the behavioral patterns are preserved, that cycle is a genuine consensus upgrade. Conversely, markets driven only by liquidity and stories, lacking new behaviors, are often just short-lived flashes.

2017 ICO frenzy: crypto’s first global capital collaboration

Reviewing the ICO craze from 2017 to 2018, the crypto market first learned how to coordinate people and capital on a large scale worldwide. The billions of dollars flowing into the chain at that time were not directed at mature products but were bets on ideas and visions. Although earlier attempts like the 2013 Mastercoin and 2014 Ethereum crowdfunding existed, they remained niche and had not yet formed a replicable, scalable global behavior pattern.

The DAO in 2016 was a pivotal moment—strangers could pool funds solely through code. By 2017, with Ethereum and ERC-20 standards mature, token issuance became industrialized, financing moved entirely on-chain, and whitepapers became investment targets. Even though most ICOs ended in bubbles or scams, the way people coordinated fundraising and resource allocation was permanently changed—this was a typical consensus upgrade.

2020 DeFi Summer: on-chain economy born from sideways price action

The 2020 DeFi Summer marked another key consensus shift. Unlike the ICO era, even if Bitcoin and Ethereum prices did not surge dramatically, user behavior changed fundamentally. The market started to see crypto assets as practical financial instruments, not just speculative assets. Lending, collateralization, liquidity mining, market making, leverage cycles, and governance voting gradually formed on-chain muscle memory, keeping the ecosystem highly active despite price stagnation.

Protocols like Compound, Uniswap, Aave, MakerDAO are described as internet banks, and SushiSwap’s vampire attack proved that incentive mechanisms can effectively mobilize capital. However, subsequent clone farms failed to introduce new behavioral models and quickly faded, highlighting the difference between genuine consensus upgrades and short-term liquidity surges. Looking back from 2026, current airdrop designs, TVL metrics, and Layer 2 incentives all trace back to the patterns established in 2020.

After DeFi Summer, if a new product cannot provide users with a tangible reason to stay on-chain, it will struggle to generate excitement again. Incentives can boost short-term activity, but if they do not establish lasting community habits (a new paradigm), the project will quickly become a ghost town once subsidies end.

NFT wave: from financial tools to digital culture and identity

The 2021 NFT craze further pushed crypto from the financial layer into culture and social spheres. With global liquidity easing, institutional entry, and multiple chains competing, NFTs became the most iconic catalyst of that bull market. Digital assets gained verifiable provenance and ownership for the first time; profile pictures were no longer just images but symbols of identity, circles, and social belonging. Projects like CryptoPunks and BAYC turned wallets into membership cards, determining access to private communities, offline events, or airdrop rights.

Despite subsequent proliferation of clone projects, wash trading, celebrity coin offerings, and bubbles bursting, the behavioral changes left by NFTs persist: brands now value digital passports, community-first issuance becomes the norm, and in an era flooded with AI content, “provenance” has become a core indicator of digital authenticity. Crypto is no longer just a financial experiment but gradually becoming the cultural layer native to the internet.

Five questions to judge whether you are in a bull market or illusion

To help investors distinguish real from fake markets, Pickle Cat proposes a set of “Five Self-Protection Questions for Retail Investors”:

• Are outsiders entering the space for non-trading reasons?
• After subsidies and rewards disappear, do behaviors continue?
• Do users develop daily habits, not just hold positions?
• Are behaviors preceding experiences?
• Does the community generate love-driven energy rather than just for price?
• He emphasizes that price increases are only the result; true transformation often occurs months earlier at the behavioral level.

Are outsiders entering?

These people are not just here to trade coins. They are creators, builders, or those seeking identity. If only traders are in the room, then the room is essentially empty.

Can it pass the incentive decay test?

Observe what happens when rewards dry up or prices stagnate. If people stay, it indicates a habit has formed.

Choose daily habits or just holding positions

Newcomers only watch K-lines, while experts observe what people do daily. If they build daily routines around the system, that’s a permanent upgrade.

Is there a “behavior > experience” phenomenon?

Real change happens when tools are still primitive, decentralized, and inefficient. If people are willing to endure poor UI to participate, that behavior is effective. When applications become smooth and refined, it’s already too late.

Is there love-driven energy?

This is the most critical point. When people start defending a system because it’s part of their identity, not just because they might lose money, the transformation is complete. He states that prices are lagging indicators of the world moving forward; the focus should be on behavioral shifts.

Success does not depend on path dependency; building a solid foundation allows you to be faster

In a market entering consolidation, many are anxious about “where the next thousandfold opportunity is.” But what truly prevents most from making big money is not lack of information, but reliance on “quick wealth” pathways. He states that anyone promising to help you catch the next thousandfold with a “5-step wealth code” is often just trying to sell courses or make you pay IQ tax; because each new cycle is a completely new game, and past success scripts cannot be directly applied to the next.

Using market evolution as an example: the 2020 DeFi Summer approach is unlikely to predict the explosion of Meme coins in 2024/2025; even top Meme hunters may not forecast the market’s repeated success in 2026. Instead of chasing the “next hot spot,” it’s more important to build your own underlying framework so that when real opportunities arrive, you can understand and grasp them faster than others.

Suggestion 1: Become an “On-Chain Sherlock”: Learn to understand capital and market mechanisms

In skill training, Pickle Cat first recommends training yourself to become an “On-Chain Sherlock,” with the core goal of improving the ability to identify “organized sniping events” and avoid becoming a bagholder. Specifically, investors should become proficient in examining wallet histories, holdings distribution, linked transactions, fund sources and destinations, and be able to sniff out on-chain anomalies.

Second, understand market microstructure, including order book depth, spreads, exchange net inflows/outflows, token unlock schedules, market cap/TVL ratios, open interest, funding rates, and macro capital flows, to reduce risks of slippage, liquidations, or supply shocks. Third, at least understand how MEV works to avoid being unknowingly attacked in the dark forest.

He further points out that those who want to move faster need to train themselves to recognize wash trading, fake transactions, arbitrage splitting, and traps like “low circulation / high FDV”; participants in airdrops must understand anti-witch mechanisms. Additionally, information flow should be highly automated, including alert systems, news filtering, narrative screening, and noise reduction. As vibe coding lowers the tool barrier, more people without engineering backgrounds are creating tools to filter out junk info and catch opportunities early; relying solely on manual research often makes one a step behind the market.

Suggestion 2: Enter the community and build relationships: information advantage is never public

Besides technical skills, Pickle Cat emphasizes the importance of networks. He states that truly first-hand information advantages are rarely shared publicly; when a project is heavily promoted by well-known voices in the info flow, investors might still profit but have missed the best entry point that could change their lives. This explains why most newcomers end up as market liquidity providers, entering with hope but being shaken out at the top. They receive filtered, delayed information from private circles.

Before reliable insider info is available, he recommends allocating most assets to long-term holdings: long-term investments require less info and have no short-term trading urgency, giving investors space to research public data. A longer-term strategy is to shift from spectator to participant. By providing value through skills, on-site research, capital, or connections, one can exchange for first-hand info and gradually enter more core circles.

He suggests that the most efficient way to get in is to find a job in a promising ecosystem or project (development, operations, BD), because work is the fastest way to build reputation and connect with key people. Even without a traditional resume, in 2026, on-chain experience itself can serve as a resume, as the industry is less focused on degrees and big-company backgrounds. For those unwilling to work, he mentions two more difficult but feasible paths: building verifiable achievements through on-chain results, or establishing a personal brand on X.

Common traits of long-term survivors: beliefs and multi-dimensional value anchoring

In the latter part of the article, Pickle Cat analyzes that investors who can cross multiple cycles usually share two traits:

• Structural beliefs independent of price movements
• Multi-dimensional value anchoring systems (concepts, time, behavior, and faith)

These individuals are not swayed by short-term fluctuations and do not use long-term narratives to justify impulsive trades. They understand the time dimension of each position and can adhere to discipline under high pressure. Pickle Cat states, “Chasing quick money” not only depletes capital but also destroys the ability to maintain beliefs. Once beliefs collapse, rebuilding is far more difficult than accumulating funds.

Beliefs are not about stubbornness or blind faith in “what some big shot said.” They involve asking oneself: “Even if prices deviate from my view in the coming years, does the core logic of this belief still hold?” This mindset difference can lead to vastly different outcomes.

So, what exactly is their “multi-dimensional value system,” and how can you build your own?

First layer: Concept anchoring

You must be able to clearly explain why a certain asset is worth holding long-term, even if the price drops below the screen; look back two years at your last 10 traded tokens—how many still exist and are “important”? If you cannot justify it without “community” and “to the moon,” that’s not belief, just position.

Second layer: Time dimension

Most decisions are driven by noise. Today’s Telegram groups chase memes; tomorrow, they follow big shots on Polymarket; after a few days, they inquire about on-chain assets; then buy privacy tokens without understanding their use; finally, they are hypnotized by news headlines and go all-in on BTC. That’s not strategy, it’s just handing over money, often leaving only psychological scars two months later. Cross-cycle investors distinguish short, medium, and long positions, refuse emotional contagion across dimensions, and before buying, force themselves to answer an uncomfortable question: “How long until I am willing to admit I was wrong?”

Third layer: Behavioral level

The real test is when you suffer heavy losses and your mind urges you to do something. You need a self-questioning framework to predict your actions: Is there a plan if the price drops x%? Will I hold, reduce, or exit? Is my decision driven by emotion or logic? During a retracement, am I re-evaluating the logic or just seeking an excuse for panic? Will I change my target aimlessly? When prices rise, do I greedily push for higher take-profit? Can I clearly explain my holding reasons without hype? Is this belief or sunk cost? During sideways moves beyond expectations, do I still hold because the logic remains valid or because I refuse to admit I was wrong?

Behavioral anchors mean setting actions during calm periods to avoid chaos during despair; otherwise, you’re just playing yourself.

Fourth layer: Faith dimension

The loudest voices in bull markets, those shouting to get in last, and those who never see below ten thousand often vanish when a downturn hits, because the mentality of overnight riches not only destroys portfolios through high-frequency trading but also erodes faith. Most people spend their bullets at the peak of euphoria, only to be exhausted when the real bear market opportunities arrive, and then regret not holding on.

Faith is the most important: it takes years to forge, enough to withstand doubts and sharp questions. You must find your own “why.” Not just follow a KOL’s philosophy; some believe in cypherpunk rebellion, others in monetary history iterations and hedging against fiat cycles, and some in sovereignty, neutrality, and survival rights.

Bitcoin’s faith layer: a system that asks no questions about your identity

At the end of the article, Pickle Cat uses Bitcoin as an example to explain the source of its long-term belief. He describes Bitcoin as “the fourth contract in human history”: a system that does not inquire about your background, nationality, language, or background—anyone with a private key can participate. He believes that what crypto truly offers is not promises of quick riches, but the possibility of equal access for all under the same rules and at the same time.

Bear and bull markets will pass; those who stay are the answer

Pickle Cat emphasizes that the crypto market is the cruelest and most honest teacher, magnifying human greed, impatience, and laziness, and charging high tuition fees for it. Those who can survive cycles never focus on the next K-line but understand that tokens are not the point; the real focus is the evolving consensus system and the discipline and faith that keep you in the game. When the next consensus upgrade arrives, the true winners are often already inside.

• This article is reprinted with permission from: 《Chain News》
• Original title: “Anyone Can Make Money in Cryptocurrency: 13-Year Veteran Reveals Survival Rules for Bull and Bear Cycles”
• Original author: Neo