Federal Reserve Chair Race Finals: Super Turnarounds Occur Frequently, BlackRock Executive Emerges as Dark Horse

Author: Zen, PANews

After much speculation, Trump’s candidate for Federal Reserve Chair is expected to be officially announced in about a week. This dramatic “selection process” has seen a major twist as it reaches the final stage.

“The Fed must lower interest rates to 3% to be closer to equilibrium,” said Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income, in an interview with CNBC on January 13. He stated that rates need to be cut to 3% before considering the current situation.

Rieder’s remarks also officially signaled the start of a dark horse’s surge.

On that day, his chances of winning in prediction markets like Polymarket doubled from 3% to 6%; after Trump praised him highly at the Davos Forum, Rieder’s probability soared to 60%. As of January 29, Rieder was tied with former Fed Governor Kevin Woor, both with about a 33% chance.

The reason this seasoned Wall Street investor unexpectedly rose to become one of the top contenders for the 2026 Fed Chair position is partly because Rieder’s monetary policy stance aligns with Trump’s preferences—favoring rapid and substantial rate cuts to boost economic growth; and partly because his extensive Wall Street experience lends credibility, making his nomination more palatable to markets and the Senate.

Additionally, Rieder’s open attitude toward digital assets has garnered attention in the cryptocurrency field. In recent years, he has publicly stated that Bitcoin should be part of an investment portfolio, alongside gold, serving as a “ballast” for investors.

Two Mergers and Acquisitions, Building Rieder’s Top Wall Street Resume

Everyone has their talents, and Rieder was born to be an investor.

In the early 1970s, as a primary school student, Rieder began studying sports betting. He analyzed detailed data of NFL teams like the Oakland Raiders, such as performance differences on artificial turf versus natural grass. Rieder would bet his lunch money, winning 25 cents which would turn into 50 cents; if he lost, he’d be left with nothing.

This passion for investing and obsession with data have persisted throughout Rieder’s career. Today, he has over 30 years of experience in financial markets and an extensive investment management track record.

In 1987, shortly after graduating from Emory University’s Business School, Rieder joined the well-known investment bank E.F. Hutton. A few months later, the stock market crash known as “Black Monday” nearly bankrupted the firm. By year’s end, the 80-year-old company was “fire-sale” merged with Lehman Brothers. Rieder was fortunate to stay on due to a vacancy and worked at Lehman for nearly 20 years, holding senior roles including head of global credit.

In May 2008, just before Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, Rieder left to start his own hedge fund, R3 Capital. A year later, his career took a major turn when BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink acquired R3 and brought Rieder into the company with a key role. Since then, Rieder has joined BlackRock’s senior management, leading its massive fixed income investment platform.

Today, Rieder serves as Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income, managing approximately $2.4 trillion in assets, making him one of the most influential investment decision-makers at the world’s largest asset manager. He is also a member of BlackRock’s Global Executive Committee and Chair of the firm’s Investment Council.

Notably, while serving as a corporate executive, he has also been invited to serve as Vice Chair of the U.S. Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee and as a member of the Federal Reserve’s Financial Markets and Investment Advisory Committee, providing expert advice to the government.

These top-tier experiences give Rieder both market insight and a certain policy perspective, adding to his appeal as a candidate for Fed Chair. Many foreign media outlets often describe him as “having the temperament of a Fed Chair.”

Probability of Winning Once Surged About 20 Times, “Dark Horse” Rieder Becomes the Top Contender

As a leading candidate for Fed Chair, Rieder’s stance on monetary policy is the most closely watched issue. He consistently advocates for a more accommodative policy, repeatedly emphasizing that the current U.S. interest rate level is too high and should be quickly lowered to around 3%—the so-called “neutral” rate—to balance economic risks.

In a January interview, Rieder bluntly stated that the Fed must cut rates to 3% to be closer to equilibrium. Analysts note that Rieder’s position is quite dovish; if he takes office, the Fed could cut interest rates three times within the year to stimulate growth.

Rieder believes that the U.S. economy is experiencing productivity gains, inflation driven by tariffs is gradually receding, and pressures on labor and low-income consumers are mounting. Therefore, early rate cuts could help alleviate these cyclical and structural issues, supporting economic growth.

Clearly, Rieder’s monetary policy proposals align with the Trump administration’s urgent desire for rate cuts after the election. After returning to the White House, Trump repeatedly criticized the Fed and Chair Powell for not cutting rates quickly enough, even publicly pressuring them to weaken the Fed’s independence.

As the current front-runner, Rieder satisfies Trump’s demand for “loose monetary policy,” while unlike the previously popular “Two Kevins,” such as Hasset, who lacked a compelling resume, disappointed on economic policy, and was widely seen as a Trump puppet. Last week, Trump publicly expressed hope that Hasset would remain as Chair of the White House National Economic Council, effectively signaling his withdrawal from the race.

Another contender, former Fed Governor Kevin Woor, also supports rate cuts but, as an inflation hawk, would not pursue the large, rapid rate reductions Trump desires. Moreover, Woor has criticized the Fed’s system during his campaign, calling for reforms and tough regulation, but details remain unclear. Given Woor’s outspoken attitude, Trump might worry he is too aggressive and uncooperative.

Compared to Woor and Hasset, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller is considered a “system insider” candidate. He already has influence within the Fed decision-making circle and supports a more conservative central bank role. However, Waller has not gained much favor from Trump in this “selection process.” Notably, Waller’s opposition to the January rate cut of 25 basis points caused his prediction market probability of winning to double to about 15%.

In an interview at Davos, Trump praised Rieder highly, saying he performed very well in the interview. Trump also stated that, in his view, there is “probably only one candidate left.” This caused Rieder’s chances of winning to surge from below 3% to 60% on January 24, surpassing the previous frontrunners, the “Two Kevins.”

The First Bitcoin-Friendly Fed Chair May Be About to Take Office

Unlike most central bank officials, Rieder has maintained a relatively friendly and open attitude toward cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. As an investment leader at one of the world’s largest asset managers, he has repeatedly expressed recognition of digital assets’ potential.

As early as November 2020, Rieder boldly predicted in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin could succeed gold as a new reserve asset of the 21st century, reasoning that “it’s much more convenient as a store of value than physically delivering gold bars or other tangible assets.”

In subsequent years, Rieder’s actions and views have remained consistent. In early 2021, he revealed that BlackRock had “begun to dip its toes into Bitcoin” investments. In 2023, BlackRock was the first to submit an application for a Bitcoin spot ETF to the U.S. SEC, prompting other financial giants to follow suit. Rieder repeatedly emphasized that Bitcoin should be part of a long-term investment portfolio.

In recent interviews, Rieder has advised investors to hold Bitcoin alongside gold to hedge against inflation and enhance portfolio stability. Even when Bitcoin’s price soared to $112,000 in September 2025, Rieder still stated that “it will continue to rise,” firmly optimistic about its future.

If such a crypto-friendly market-oriented figure becomes Fed Chair, it would be unprecedented and could give Bitcoin unprecedented influence within the highest levels of the Fed.

Of course, the Fed Chair does not directly regulate the crypto industry. Specific regulatory rules are mainly set by agencies like the SEC and CFTC, while internal Fed discussions on digital assets are usually led by the Vice Chair for Supervision. Therefore, Rieder’s pro-cryptocurrency stance may not immediately translate into major policy changes.

However, the personal views of the Fed Chair have a significant influence on market sentiment and regulatory atmosphere, affecting how regulators view financial innovation and its systemic risks. For the crypto industry, having a Fed Chair who understands Bitcoin’s value and comes from the intersection of traditional Wall Street finance and digital assets is undoubtedly a powerful signal.