News" Trump will announce the new chairman of the Fed as soon as tonight: The Fed should cut interest rates by another 2~3%, who is the most optimistic about the prediction market?

Trump will announce the successor to the Federal Reserve chairman as soon as tonight (30th) Taiwan time, and at the same time, he publicly demanded that interest rates should be lowered by another 2 to 3 percentage points, which has aroused great concern in the market about the direction of monetary policy.
(Summary: Bauer admitted to being investigated by criminal justice: I was targeted because I rejected Trump’s request for a rate cut)
(Background supplement: Trump controls the Fed one step further! White House adviser Milan becomes Fed voting committee member, independence challenged)

When US President Trump was asked in Washington earlier when he would announce the new Federal Reserve chairman? He responded Friday morning. In other words, if Trump does not break his word, tonight (30th) Taiwan time, we will officially know who the new Fed chairman is.

The current chairman Powell’s term will expire in May this year, and Trump expressed strong dissatisfaction with the current interest rate level of 3.50%-3.75%, advocating a further 2 to 3 percentage points reduction to achieve the goal of “the world’s lowest interest rate”.

Polymarket Hot Candidate Status

According to prediction market Polymarket data, the most popular candidate is former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, who ranks first with 86% (interestingly, his win rate skyrocketed a few hours ago, I don’t know if there is any inside information), BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder is in second place with 8%, and current Governor Christopher Waller is third with 2%.

Trump emphasized that the new chairman must have “star temperament” and be consistent with the government’s policy direction; But this standard has also raised doubts about the Fed’s long-term political independence.

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The tug-of-war between the logic of interest rate cuts and economic reality

The core considerations of Trump’s proposal for a sharp rate cut include: reducing the interest burden on Treasury bonds (estimated to save hundreds of billions of dollars), pushing mortgage interest rates down to ease housing pressure, and strengthening market liquidity.

However, the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting just concluded this week is mainly due to the fact that current economic data remains strong: GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 reached 4.3%, unemployment remained at 4.4%, and inflation of 2.7% is still above the Fed’s 2% target, but it is still within an acceptable range.

It is still unknown whether the new Fed chairman will follow Trump’s instructions to cut interest rates sharply, but experts warn that a one-time sharp rate cut could lead to a resurgence of inflation, especially the tariff policy promoted by Trump is expected to push prices to a peak in mid-2026.

The policy tendencies of the new chairman will directly affect global capital flows and asset price trends in the second half of 2026. Between Trump’s firm will to “the world’s lowest interest rate” and the Federal Reserve’s assertion of independence, the market is closely watching the final outcome of this monetary policy wrestling.

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