Polymarket Follow Guide: How to Avoid Bots and Find True Experts

Author: @clairegu1, @MorrisSHYang and Hubble Research Team

Polymarket’s trading volume continues to hit new highs, establishing itself as the liquidity hub of the global prediction market. However, for traders, an unavoidable question is: among the hundreds of millions of dollars in volume, how much represents genuine human wisdom, and how much is silently fought by algorithms? When most retail traders look for smart money based on trading volume rankings, they might be walking straight into a robot’s meat grinder.

The Hidden Bot Zone: A Tiny Few Creating the Majority of “Prosperity”

Through comprehensive address analysis, Hubble has identified a group of abnormal accounts in the “Bot Zone”:

• The Tiny Few: These accounts account for only 3.7% of the total (about 54,000 addresses).
• Absolute Influence: These 3.7% accounts contribute 37.44% of the total platform trading volume.
• The Lie of Perception: Statistics show that 99% of real users participate in fewer than 289 markets in their lifetime. However, accounts in the “Bot Zone” typically participate in over 500 markets.

For traders, this means that nearly 40% of the “market sentiment” you see is actually just oscillations of code.

If your

decisions are based on volume, you are very likely just providing liquidity to a hedge script with no real viewpoint (refer to previous articles:

“The Hidden Trap of 99% Win Rate: Why Polymarket’s Super Late-Trade Strategy Is More Likely to Lead to Losses?”)

How Hubble Identifies Algorithms

To accurately identify these “machine predators,” Hubble developed a filtering logic based on the “XY Quadrant Analysis Method.”

The “Diagonal Law” for real users

For genuine users, the number of markets participated in and total trading volume show a positive logarithmic relationship. As the number of markets increases, trading frequency moderately increases, and their Focus Ratio (total trades / number of markets) remains within a reasonable range of 2~10.

• Determination Criterion: Data shows that 95% of users have a Focus Ratio below 12.25.

The “Edge Distribution” of bots

Bots break this linear relationship, distributing along the edges of the coordinate axes:

• Vertical anomalies (deep cultivation): Very few markets but extremely high trading activity. These addresses are usually market-making scripts, with Focus Ratios reaching up to 39,394.
• Horizontal anomalies (spreading): Many markets but minimal trades per market. These addresses are often arbitrageurs or bulk snipers.

Our research team found that true “prediction masters” usually specialize deeply in specific fields.

Those “all-round geniuses” jumping between hundreds of markets often rely on odds deviation arbitrage rather than genuine insight into event outcomes. Following such signals makes it hard to learn real game theory.

Holding Duration Is the Only Truth

Besides static counts, we track the Inventory Curve to identify the essence of “fast capital turnover” in bots:

• HFT/MEV Bots: Average holding time < 60 seconds. Only machines can complete a full risk hedging loop within tens of seconds.
• Grid Bots/Market Makers: Holding time within 10 minutes.
• Human traders: Active traders usually hold positions for > 1 hour, trend holders for over 1 day.

This indicates that algorithms can simulate trading frequency but struggle to mimic human “hesitation” and “resolve.”

Signals with holding durations under 10 minutes are mostly noise, as they are not about predicting outcomes but about harvesting volatility.

Summary: The Survival Rules of Polymarket

Based on the real distribution behind 1.46 million addresses, we summarize three core principles for copy traders:

1. Volume does not equal consensus, liquidity does not equal profit: 37% of market volume is just “algorithms dancing.” Entering markets with high volume may not mean you’re in a hot spot but simply walking into a high-frequency robot’s “meat grinder.”
2. “All-round players” are likely “assembly line workers”: Statistics have already answered this—humans cannot deeply engage in 300 topics simultaneously. True smart money often focuses deeply on a few specific fields.
3. Time is the only golden standard for identifying real humans: Algorithms can simulate trading frequency but struggle to mimic human “time exposure.” Genuine value signals are often hidden in addresses willing to bear risk exposure for over an hour.

PolyHub: Born for “Signal Dehydration”

In the current market environment, blindly following Polymarket’s raw signals is dangerous. To address this pain point, we built PolyHub.

Our goal is to help traders penetrate algorithmic noise and find those who truly grasp the trend—“human wisdom.”

If you are interested in piercing market fog and locking in genuine smart money, join our exploration program:

• Follow @PolyHub: Get real-time deep data analysis and algorithm model updates on prediction markets.
• Interactive participation: Like/share the original tweet and comment “Waitlist,” and we will reserve the first beta seats for PolyHub.