The true cause of the coin crash has been discovered!

PaiCoin plummeted over the weekend to a historic low of $0.145, down more than 93% from the peak of $2.98 set after the mainnet launch last February. The collapse was driven by a combination of overall weakness in the crypto market, escalating geopolitical risks, ongoing selling pressure, and large-scale token unlocks. Data shows that PaiCoin will unlock over 133 million tokens in February, with a total of 1.3 billion tokens unlocking over the next 12 months, continuing to exert downward pressure on the price.

PaiCoin crashes from $2.98 to $0.145

(Source: Trading View)

派幣 dropped to an intraday low of $0.140 on Monday, slightly below the previous all-time low of $0.1545. This price level shocked many early holders, as it represents a decline of over 93% from the all-time high of $2.98. For investors who bought at high prices, this decline is catastrophic—$100 invested at the peak is now worth about $7.

PaiCoin’s price collapse was not an overnight event but a nearly year-long decline. From the initial frenzy around the mainnet launch in February 2025 to the current all-time low, PaiCoin has followed a typical “bubble burst” curve. At launch, market expectations for PaiCoin peaked, attracting many investors and pushing prices higher. However, as initial hype faded and real-world use cases proved limited, the price entered a prolonged downtrend.

Such a drop of over 90% from the high is not uncommon in the crypto market; many projects lacking practical applications have experienced similar fates. PaiCoin’s situation is even more unique because it has a large user base, most of whom obtained tokens via mobile mining rather than market purchases. Once tokens are unlocked and tradable, selling pressure becomes enormous.

Currently, PaiCoin’s market cap has shrunk significantly, and liquidity is relatively limited. This market structure makes price swings more volatile, and any large sell-off could trigger a sharp decline. For holders, this is a tough time—they must choose between “holding on for a rebound” or “cutting losses and exiting.”

Crypto market collapse and geopolitical risks

One of the main reasons for PaiCoin’s sharp decline is the overall weakening sentiment in the crypto market. Bitcoin and other altcoins have all fallen, with total market capitalization dropping over 6% in the past 24 hours. As a relatively small and less liquid token, PaiCoin tends to fall even more during broad market downturns, as investors prioritize selling less liquid assets.

Geopolitical concerns have also intensified market panic. Donald Trump warned Iranian officials to either agree to negotiations or face attack risks, leading to widespread pressure on global risk assets. On platforms like Polymarket and other prediction markets, the probability of an attack on Iran continues to rise. Such potential conflicts could increase market volatility, push up oil prices, and heighten inflation pressures—creating an environment highly unfavorable for cryptocurrencies.

In times of rising geopolitical risks, investors typically adopt a “flight to safety,” moving funds from high-risk assets to safer ones like gold, USD, or government bonds. As a risk asset, cryptocurrencies are often the first to be sold off. PaiCoin, as a relatively young project with limited mature use cases, is especially vulnerable in this environment.

Market sentiment deterioration is reflected not only in falling prices but also in trading behaviors. When investor confidence wanes, they tend to cut losses quickly rather than buy the dip, further exacerbating downward pressure. PaiCoin is currently caught in this negative cycle, with insufficient buy support to absorb the continuous selling.

Selling pressure surges, trading volume quadruples

As selling pressure persists, PaiCoin’s trading activity has surged significantly. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that trading volume on Monday soared to $28 million, up from $7 million the previous day. A fourfold increase in volume usually indicates a dramatic shift in market sentiment, with many holders beginning to abandon and sell the token.

This spike in volume is significant in technical analysis. When a price decline is accompanied by increased trading volume, it generally signals genuine and strong selling pressure, not just technical volatility. Such “volume-driven declines” often suggest trend continuation, as they reflect real willingness among holders to sell rather than manipulation by a few speculators.

From a microstructure perspective, PaiCoin’s trading is concentrated on a few exchanges, making liquidity relatively centralized but also fragile. When large sell orders flood the market, the order book’s depth often cannot support the price, leading to gap-down moves. This market structure results in higher volatility compared to mature cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum.

Another feature of the sell-off is the lack of support from “buy the dip” strategies. In healthy markets, prices often find support at key levels, forming stair-step declines. But PaiCoin’s price has easily broken through every round number, indicating severe lack of confidence. Investors prefer to wait for lower prices rather than buy at current levels.

Unlocking 1.3 billion tokens becomes a price killer

The sell-off coincides with ongoing token unlock events, which are a core reason for PaiCoin’s price collapse. Data shows that over 133 million tokens will unlock in February, with a total of 1.3 billion tokens unlocking over the next 12 months. Token unlocks increase the circulating supply over time, and if demand does not grow proportionally, this supply increase exerts downward pressure on the price.

Token unlock schedule

February 2026: Over 133 million tokens

Next 12 months total: 1.3 billion tokens

Unlock pace: Continuous rather than one-time

Market impact: Long-term supply pressure

The 1.3 billion tokens represent a staggering amount, meaning the market must absorb a large influx of new supply. With a daily trading volume of only about $28 million (roughly 193 million PaiCoins), this unlock volume is equivalent to about 7 days of total trading activity. If a significant portion of these unlocked tokens are sold, the price will face enormous downward pressure.

More concerning is that most of these tokens come from early users who mined via mobile devices at near-zero cost. For them, any price above zero is pure profit. This cost structure makes their willingness to sell extremely high, unlike market buyers who set psychological price levels. Costless holders are more likely to “cash out,” even at very low prices.

Meanwhile, investor reactions to recent positive news are muted. For example, new KYC verification methods that will allow most early users to migrate to the mainnet should be positive signals. In theory, this expands the user base and is bullish. But the market interprets it negatively, as more users migrating to the mainnet means more potential sellers, further fueling oversupply concerns.

Technical analysis indicates further downside potential

From a technical perspective, PaiCoin’s price trend is clearly bearish. The daily chart shows that before plunging to a new low, PaiCoin formed an ascending wedge pattern, bounded by two rising converging trendlines. An ascending wedge is a common bearish reversal pattern, often signaling the exhaustion of an uptrend and imminent decline.

The coin formed a double top at $0.2816, its highs in October and November last year. Double tops are classic reversal patterns, indicating that the price failed twice to break through a resistance level and subsequently started to decline. After forming the double top, PaiCoin’s price followed the expected technical pattern, falling all the way to the new low.

Additionally, PaiCoin’s price is well below its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). These EMAs are key indicators of medium-term trend direction. When the price stays below them, it generally indicates a bearish trend. Currently, PaiCoin is not only below these averages but also far from them, showing dominant bearish momentum.

Without clear bullish catalysts, PaiCoin may continue to decline. A break below the current all-time low of $0.145 could signal further downside, with the next psychological target at $0.10. From $0.145 to $0.10, there’s about a 31% potential decline, which would be devastating for holders already suffering heavy losses.

For investors, the current technical setup serves as a stark warning. With a fully bearish outlook, weak fundamentals, and ongoing supply pressures, any attempt to bottom fish carries high risk. Unless a clear trend reversal signal appears, cautious observation might be the wiser choice.