Bitcoin Today News: Government Shutdown Risk Approaches, Losing Key Level May Test 68,000

Bitcoin today shows a weekly decline of 11%, the most severe drop since March 2025, falling to $74,500. This week’s three major risks: employment report, tech earnings, government shutdown. PPI exceeded expectations with no signs of rate cuts. BTC tested support at $74,500, RSI is oversold, and breaking below could test $68,000.

Three Major Data Points This Week Signal BTC’s Life or Death

Due to continuous accumulation of macro risk events, volatility remains high. Bitcoin faces pressure at the start of a new week. The focus of Bitcoin today is on three key data points. First is the US monthly employment report, one of the most important indicators for Fed decision-making. Strong employment data will further reduce market expectations for rate cuts, suppressing risk assets. Conversely, weak employment data could trigger recession fears but also increase expectations for rate cuts, providing support for BTC.

Second are earnings reports from tech giants like Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Amazon, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). These companies are core pillars of the US tech sector, and their earnings will directly influence risk sentiment. The correlation between tech stocks and the crypto market has increased significantly over the past year; when tech stocks plunge, BTC often follows. If this week’s tech earnings fall short of expectations, it could trigger a sell-off in stocks that spills over into the crypto market.

Third is the risk of a US government shutdown. Currently, Congress is deadlocked over the budget, and if no agreement is reached this week, the federal government may be forced to shut down. This political uncertainty usually triggers risk aversion, but the impact on Bitcoin is unclear. Traditional safe-haven assets like gold tend to rise during government shutdowns, but whether Bitcoin benefits depends on whether investors still see it as a safe haven.

These factors may spread through risk sentiment into the crypto market. However, recent declines in Bitcoin and weak subsequent trends suggest that short-term technicals remain bearish. Coupled with the risk of a government shutdown, downside pressure remains significant. In summary, based on Bitcoin today’s news, the overall outlook for BTC this week is rather pessimistic.

Three Major Risk Events Timeline This Week

February 3 (Monday): AMD earnings release

February 4 (Tuesday): Alphabet and Amazon earnings release

February 7 (Friday): US January Non-Farm Payrolls report

Ongoing risk: Progress of government shutdown negotiations (may have sudden updates)

What factors could challenge this bearish outlook? If the recent two days of sell-off are enough to clear speculative positions, risk assets might stabilize, leading to a rebound in Bitcoin and a higher close. Data from the past 7 days show that leverage has been heavily liquidated, suggesting the market structure may be healthier than it appears.

Fed’s Hawkish Stance Dashes Rate Cut Fantasies

No rate cuts in the short term could limit Bitcoin’s upside potential. Last week, the Fed stated it is not in a hurry to cut rates and that current policy levels remain “appropriate.” This directly dampens market expectations for rate cuts in the first half of 2026. Subsequently, US Producer Price Index (PPI) data was released: December PPI rose 0.5%, core PPI (excluding food and energy) increased 0.7%, both exceeding expectations.

This indicates inflation pressures remain strong, reducing urgency for rate cuts. PPI is a wholesale inflation indicator, typically leading the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by several months. The unexpected rise in PPI suggests CPI may stay high in the coming months, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates high longer. For Bitcoin today, this is one of the most significant bearish factors.

President Trump’s choice of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair is considered slightly dovish, but it won’t drastically change the short-term landscape. Although Warsh is relatively more dovish than Powell, his term begins in May 2026, and Powell will still control the Fed until then. Even if Warsh shifts policy tone after taking office, implementation would take months. Therefore, this personnel change has limited impact on markets in Q1 2026.

If rate cuts are small, venture capital may remain cautious, which is usually negative for Bitcoin. A high interest rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets like Bitcoin, leading institutional investors to prefer fixed-income assets such as US Treasuries. Only when the Fed signals clear rate cuts will funds flow back into risk assets.

The sharp decline in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market coincides with a strengthening dollar. As of Monday, the US Dollar Index (DXY), tracking the dollar against major currencies, is at 97.29, up 1.82% from last week’s low. Technically, later this week, it will attempt to approach the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA) near 97.44. If this negative correlation persists, a stronger dollar could push Bitcoin lower. Historical data shows a significant negative correlation between BTC and the dollar index; when the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin priced in USD becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, suppressing demand.

Technical Analysis: Losing Support at 74,500 Could Test $68,000

(Source: Trading View)

Bitcoin is testing its final support zone between $74,500 and $76,500. This zone was a strong demand area in April 2025, after which Bitcoin’s price surged by about 70%. The importance of this historical support lies in the fact that it represents a cost basis cluster for many investors. When prices fall back to these levels, previous buyers often add to their positions or hold firm, creating buying support.

As of Monday, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for this cryptocurrency is severely oversold, increasing the possibility of a short-term rebound. When RSI reaches extreme oversold levels, it often signals that selling momentum is exhausted, and a technical bounce could occur at any time. However, in a strong downtrend, RSI can remain in oversold territory for weeks, so oversold conditions alone do not justify immediate buying.

If overall risk sentiment improves, especially after strong tech earnings later this week, BTC/USD could attempt a rebound toward its 20-day moving average (above $86,000). This would represent roughly a 15% bounce from current levels. The 20-day moving average is a key short-term trend indicator; regaining it would significantly improve the technical outlook.

Alternatively, the price may consolidate within the $74,500 to $76,500 range, as the market searches for direction. Such sideways movement is common for digesting selling pressure; if it stabilizes for several days, it could set the stage for a subsequent rebound. If the price breaks decisively below support, it could open the door to testing the $70,000 psychological level, with further downside potentially testing $68,000 (200-week moving average).

From Bitcoin today’s weekly outlook, an extremely bearish view suggests that Bitcoin is repeating its four-year cycle structure, which could lead to further declines toward the 200-week moving average, around $68,000. Historical data shows that during mid to late cycle corrections in past four-year cycles, retracements to this long-term average are common. Such volatility may feel intense now, but it often signals the selling pressure is waning and the market is bottoming out.

The $68,000 target is based on the four-year cycle theory. Bitcoin has experienced multiple four-year cycles, each containing bull markets, peaks, bear markets, and bottoms. If currently in mid-cycle correction, retracing to the 200-week moving average is typical. This long-term average has historically provided strong support, with bottoms in 2022 and rebounds after the 2020 pandemic crash starting from this level.