XRP Price at Make-or-Break $1.50: Bounce to $1.80 or Collapse to $1.30?

Ripple has executed its scheduled February escrow release, unlocking 1 billion XRP, with a net increase of 300 million tokens entering the circulating supply amidst a broader market downturn that has pushed XRP to October 2025 lows.

The token’s weakness is compounded by sobering commentary from Ripple CTO David Schwartz, who challenged wildly optimistic price targets, and external noise from the recently released Epstein files, which have sparked debate over historical surveillance of related projects. This confluence of programmed supply inflation, technical breakdown, and challenging narratives creates a critical test for XRP’s price resilience. This analysis explores whether the current pressures will lead to a deeper correction or establish a long-term re-accumulation zone, providing a clear XRP price prediction for February and beyond.

The Scheduled Unlock: Dissecting Ripple’s February XRP Escrow Release

On the first of February, Ripple initiated its pre-programmed monthly release from escrow, a standard operational procedure that often garners disproportionate market attention. This month, the protocol unlocked a total of 1 billion XRP, executed in four separate transactions as tracked by on-chain analytics. Following its long-established supply management framework, Ripple subsequently returned 700 million XRP to new escrow contracts, leaving a net increase of 300 million XRP in the theoretically liquid supply, valued at approximately $470 million at the time of the unlock. This mechanism, established in 2017, was designed precisely to provide transparency and predictability, moving away from the uncertainty of large, unexpected token dumps.

It is crucial for investors to understand that these monthly events are procedural, not panic-driven. The escrow system locked away 55 billion of Ripple’s initial XRP holdings, stipulating the release of up to 1 billion per month. Historically, the company relocks a significant majority (typically 60-80%) of the unlocked tokens, as seen this month with the 700 million XRP move. The remaining portion is earmarked for operational expenses, such as funding new ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) corridor incentives, developer grants, or other ecosystem initiatives. Therefore, the immediate sell pressure from the unlock is often overstated; the real impact is a gradual, predictable increase in potential sellable supply, which the market has years of data to price in.

However, the timing of this routine unlock is undeniably awkward. It coincides with a period of acute broad market weakness and specific technical vulnerability for XRP. When investor sentiment is fearful and liquidity is thin, even known, scheduled events can act as an accelerant for downward momentum. The key question for the XRP price prediction is not the unlock itself, but whether the underlying demand from Ripple’s business developments and ecosystem growth can absorb this steady drip of new supply. In a bullish, high-demand environment, these unlocks are mere background noise. In a bearish environment like the current one, they contribute to the narrative of persistent oversupply.

Technical Breakdown: XRP Plunges to Key Long-Term Support

The price chart for XRP tells a story of persistent weakness that has culminated in a test of a critical long-term floor. In late January, XRP broke below several key support levels, ultimately plunging to a low of $1.50. This price point is significant as it marks the token’s lowest valuation since the market-wide crash of October 2025, effectively erasing all gains from the subsequent multi-month rally. The decline continued into February, with the token shedding another 6% in the first two days, mirroring declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum and reflecting a sector-wide risk-off sentiment. As of this analysis, XRP is struggling to maintain footing above the $1.55 level.

From a technical analysis perspective, the break below $1.60 was a major bearish development. This level had acted as a launching pad for the late-2025 rally and subsequently as a zone of buying interest. Its failure opens the door to a retest of even more profound support areas. Analysts are currently divided on the immediate path forward. Some point to the formation of a large-scale “re-accumulation phase” on higher time frames, suggesting the brutal price action could be a drawn-out basing pattern that precedes the next major bullish cycle. This view posits that smart money is accumulating at these depressed levels, building energy for a future explosion.

A more cyclical, long-term analyst perspective offers a sobering, if not outright bearish, XRP price prediction. Some chartists observing multi-year patterns note that XRP has historically undergone extended periods of consolidation—sometimes lasting years—before experiencing explosive, parabolic rallies that capture mainstream attention. One prominent analysis suggests that based on these past cycles, the “next major pump” for XRP may not materialize until Q4 2028, with price targets in the $8-$10 range. While this seems an eternity in the fast-paced crypto world, it underscores the asset’s history of extreme patience followed by extreme volatility. For now, the immediate technical structure is damaged, and the burden of proof lies with the bulls to reclaim lost ground and rebuild a foundation for recovery.

The Anatomy of XRP’s Price Decline: Key Technical Levels

$1.60 (Lost Support): Former critical support and psychological level. A recovery above this on a weekly closing basis is the first step to invalidating the immediate downtrend.

$1.50 (Current Basing Zone): The October 2025 low and current area of contention. A sustained break below this level would be catastrophic for the medium-term outlook.

$1.20 - $1.30 (Next Major Support): If $1.50 fails, this zone represents the next significant historical consolidation area from mid-2025. A drop here would signify a much deeper bear market.

The 200-Week Moving Average: Often the final line of defense in a crypto bear market. For XRP, this dynamic support is currently situated significantly lower, highlighting the potential downside risk if the current support structure crumbles.

A Reality Check from the Top: David Schwartz’s Sobering Market Commentary

Amidst the sea of social media hype and community price predictions often reaching hundreds of dollars, a voice from within Ripple’s own leadership has provided a stark dose of market realism. David Schwartz, Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer and a key architect of the XRP Ledger, recently offered a perspective that directly challenges the most bullish narratives. He engaged in a thought experiment: if rational investors genuinely believed XRP had even a 10% chance of reaching $100 within a few years, the token would not be trading at its current depressed levels. The logic is compelling—such a massive asymmetric upside would lead to frantic buying, rapidly consuming all available supply and driving the price toward that expected value.

Schwartz’s comments cut to the heart of market psychology and pricing efficiency. He stated plainly,** **“That the current trading price is well below $10 shows that there aren’t very many people who really think it has a 10% chance of hitting $100 within a few years with enough confidence to put their money where their mouth is.” This is a fundamental challenge to the echo chambers common in crypto communities. The market price, in aggregate, represents the consensus probabilistic assessment of all future outcomes. His argument suggests that the current $1.50-$1.60 price reflects the true, collective belief in XRP’s near-to-mid-term potential more accurately than any tweet or YouTube video forecasting a moonshot.

This is not the first time Schwartz has expressed pragmatic skepticism about price. He recalled selling some of his own XRP at $0.10 because the idea of it ever reaching $0.25 seemed “insane,” and reflected on a time when Bitcoin hitting $100 was considered an “impossible dream.” His viewpoint serves as an important anchor for investors. It shifts the focus from fantastical price targets to the fundamental drivers of value: adoption of the XRP Ledger, growth of Ripple’s ODL network, regulatory clarity, and the development of a robust decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenization ecosystem on XRPL. For a credible XRP price prediction, these on-the-ground fundamentals must improve before the market’s probabilistic assessment—and thus the price—can sustainably rise.

External Noise: The Epstein Files and Unfounded XRP Conspiracies

Adding an unusual layer of external noise, the recent public release of documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein case has inadvertently swept the XRP community into a speculative frenzy. A portion of the millions of pages released referenced an unidentified informant telling Epstein that Jed McCaleb—the co-founder of both Ripple and later Stellar—was working on a “secret Bitcoin project” before leaving the Mt. Gox exchange. Some community members hastily interpreted this as evidence that Epstein had Ripple and XRP under surveillance from their earliest days, weaving a new thread into the complex tapestry of conspiracy theories that sometimes surrounds the project.

A closer examination of the historical timeline, however, quickly debunks this specific connection. The email in question was sent on July 1, 2014. By this date, Ripple (then OpenCoin) had already been founded in 2012, the XRP Ledger was launched, and Jed McCaleb had already left Ripple in 2013. In 2014, McCaleb was deeply involved in founding the Stellar Development Foundation and launching the Stellar network. Therefore, the “secret Bitcoin project” referenced was almost certainly Stellar (XLM), not Ripple or XRP. This clarification is crucial, as it separates factual analysis from sensationalist narrative, which can often impact retail sentiment.

Perhaps more relevant to the industry’s internal politics was another revelation from the files. An email from Austin Hill, co-founder of the Bitcoin-focused company Blockstream, urged Epstein and others to stop funding “McCaleb projects,” explicitly naming both Ripple and Stellar. Hill argued these projects harmed the broader crypto ecosystem. In response, Ripple’s David Schwartz suggested this reflected a view within certain Bitcoin maximalist circles that supporters of XRP and XLM are “enemies” of the true crypto ecosystem. This episode highlights the deep, often ideological rifts within the digital asset space. For XRP investors, the takeaway is that the project faces not only market and regulatory challenges but also persistent opposition from factions within the industry itself, a factor that can influence developer mindshare and institutional perceptions.

XRP Price Prediction for February 2026: Navigating the Crosscurrents

Synthesizing the programmed supply increase, damaged technicals, sobering insider commentary, and external noise leads to a nuanced and cautious XRP price prediction for the remainder of February. The immediate trend is unequivocally bearish. The token is in a clear downtrend on all significant time frames, trading below its key moving averages, and has broken major support. The path of least resistance in the short term points toward a retest and potential breach of the $1.50 low. Should this level fail, the next substantial support does not appear until the $1.20 - $1.30 range, which could become the target for a February sell-off if broader market conditions deteriorate further.

However, several factors could foster a stabilization or even a dead-cat bounce. The first is oversold conditions. A relentless decline often exhausts itself as sellers become depleted and short-term momentum indicators flash oversold signals. This can lead to a technical rebound, but such moves are typically reactive and short-lived unless accompanied by a fundamental catalyst. The second factor is the broader crypto market. XRP’s correlation with Bitcoin remains significant during risk-off episodes. Therefore, any stabilization or recovery in Bitcoin’s price would likely provide a floor and upward tug for XRP. Watching Bitcoin’s behavior around its key support levels (e.g., $70,000-$72,000) is essential for predicting XRP’s near-term direction.

The most likely scenario for February, therefore, is one of continued volatility with a bearish bias, potentially finding a temporary bottom between $1.30 and $1.50. A recovery back above $1.65 on a weekly closing basis would be the first technical signal that the immediate selling pressure has abated and a consolidation phase may begin. For long-term investors, the current prices may represent an attractive entry zone for a multi-year hold, but they must be prepared for significant further volatility and the possibility that the “re-accumulation phase” could last much longer than anticipated. The February unlock is a non-event in the long run; the real price drivers to watch are adoption metrics on the XRPL and progress in Ripple’s legal and regulatory landscape.