XRP Price Prediction: 280 million diamonds on the chain boost the bulls, can the $1.56 support level hold?

Ripple supports tokenization of $280 million worth of UAE-certified diamonds on XRPL, bridging physical assets and the digital economy. Since the launch of the XRP ETF in November 2025, there has been a cumulative inflow of $1.3 billion. Technical analysis shows XRP hovering around $1.56, having lost the key support at $1.78, which has now turned into resistance. A breakthrough and recovery above $2.00 are needed to reverse the trend; otherwise, the price could decline to $0.70.

Ripple Tokenization: $280 Million Diamonds Open a New Chapter in RWA

Ripple announced today that it will support Billiton Diamond and leading tokenization provider Ctrl Alt to tokenize over 1 billion dirhams ($280 million) worth of certified polished diamonds held in the UAE. This initiative could expand diamond investment channels through Ripple’s institutional-grade blockchain XRP Ledger (XRPL), potentially restoring XRP’s upward trend toward and above $2.00.

Reece Merrick, Managing Director of Ripple Middle East and Africa, emphasized the importance of this move: “This demonstrates how Ripple’s technology can bridge the gap between physical assets and the digital economy, leveraging our enterprise-grade custody solutions to protect high-value diamond assets with unmatched trust and security.”

Diamond tokenization marks a significant breakthrough in the trend of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. Traditionally, diamond investments have been limited to high-net-worth individuals and institutions, making it difficult for ordinary investors to participate. By tokenizing diamonds and issuing them on XRPL, Billiton Diamond can subdivide large diamond assets into smaller shares, allowing global investors to participate in the diamond market with smaller amounts. This improved liquidity and lowered entry barriers exemplify how blockchain technology is transforming traditional asset markets.

The UAE, as one of the global diamond trading hubs, has a relatively friendly regulatory environment for crypto and blockchain technology. Choosing to promote this project in the UAE indicates Ripple’s strategic selection of jurisdictions with clear regulation and open markets for RWA tokenization pilots. If successful, this could serve as a model for tokenizing other physical assets, including real estate, art, precious metals, and commodities.

XRPL’s technological advantages make it an ideal platform for RWA tokenization. The blockchain can process over 1,500 transactions per second, with confirmation times of only 3 to 5 seconds and extremely low transaction fees (usually below $0.01). These high-performance and low-cost features are crucial for asset tokenization applications requiring frequent trading and settlement. Additionally, XRPL’s built-in decentralized exchange (DEX) allows tokenized diamonds to be traded directly on-chain without relying on centralized exchanges.

$1.3 Billion ETF Capital Inflow Supports Demand

(Source: SoSoValue)

Beyond infrastructure expansion, the strongest argument for XRP’s price forecast remains the growing institutional demand. The most direct catalyst is the large influx of funds into spot ETFs. Since the launch of the first U.S. spot XRP ETF in November 2025, this institutional tool has attracted over $1.3 billion in capital.

This figure is remarkable given that only a few months have passed since the XRP ETF’s debut. In comparison, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw approximately $10 billion in inflows in the first three months after launch. Considering Bitcoin’s much larger market cap and recognition compared to XRP, the $1.3 billion inflow into XRP ETFs indicates institutional interest exceeding expectations. These funds mainly come from pension funds, wealth management firms, and family offices, which allocate XRP through compliant ETF channels to avoid custody and regulatory challenges associated with direct crypto holdings.

Initially, the ETF played a regulatory balancing role, absorbing floating supply while maintaining ongoing demand for XRP. Analysts believe that once technical conditions improve, this persistent institutional buying pressure could push the price rapidly back to $2.00. ETF structured buying differs from retail emotional trading; it is usually driven by long-term allocation needs and is less likely to be withdrawn due to short-term volatility. This stable demand base provides important support for XRP’s price.

However, the sustainability of ETF capital inflows remains to be seen. If XRP’s price continues to stay low, it could trigger a wave of redemptions from ETF investors. Additionally, competition in the ETF market is intensifying, with multiple issuers launching XRP ETFs to capture market share. This competition may lower management fees but also disperses capital inflows.

Technical Outlook: Bearish Structure, $1.78 as Key Resistance

(Source: Trading View)

XRP The daily chart shows the market remains under continuous correction pressure, with the price below all major moving averages, struggling to regain previous support levels. XRP is currently around $1.56, having lost the critical support at $1.78, which now acts as a clear resistance level. This breakdown confirms that the bearish momentum remains dominant, with the price continuing to form lower highs and lower lows.

From a trend perspective, the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs are all arranged in a bearish alignment, further indicating that any short-term rebound will face significant resistance rather than signal a trend reversal. A “bearish alignment” means short-term averages are below long-term averages, exerting downward pressure. This arrangement shows that medium- and short-term trends are all bearish, and reversing this requires the price to sustain a breakout above multiple EMAs.

Previous support around $2.00 has decisively turned into resistance, with additional resistance at $2.11 and $2.33, aligning with previous consolidation zones and downward-moving averages. To recover these levels, strong volume and decisive daily closes back above $1.78 are needed, which currently seem unlikely.

Key Technical Levels for XRP

Current Price: Around $1.56

Major Resistance: $1.78 (former support turned resistance), $2.00, $2.11, $2.33

Major Support: $1.56 (current test), $0.70 (next major support)

EMA Arrangement: All bearish (20/50/100/200 days)

Momentum indicators also suggest caution. The MACD remains in negative territory, with weak histogram bars, indicating strong bearish momentum. Although selling pressure has eased slightly, there are no clear bullish divergence signals indicating an imminent trend reversal. As long as XRP stays below $1.78, downside risk persists, and if overall market weakness continues, the price could further decline toward the next major support at $0.70.

A drop from $1.56 to $0.70 implies about a 55% decline, which would be catastrophic for any position. However, such extreme scenarios require further macro deterioration or systemic crises in the crypto market. The more likely scenario is XRP consolidating between $1.56 and $1.78, building a base for a potential rebound driven by positive fundamentals like diamond tokenization and sustained ETF inflows.