Cryptocurrency winter is coming to an end! Bitwise: $75 billion ETF masks the truth of the crash

Bitwise CIO points out that since January 2025, we have entered a crypto winter, with Bitcoin down 39% and Ethereum down 53%. ETF and DAT purchases totaling $75 billion have masked a crash among retail investors. Asset performance has become tiered: those with ETFs have declined by 10-20%, while assets without ETF support have plummeted by 61-74%. Historically, crypto winters last about 13 months, and after 13 months, we are now nearing the end of this cycle.

The Truth Behind the $75 Billion Cover-up by ETFs and DAT

(Source: Bitwise)

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that the bad news is that since January 2025, we have been in a crypto winter. The good news is that we are likely approaching the end, not just beginning it. He emphasizes that Bitcoin has fallen 39% from its October 2025 peak, Ethereum down 53%, and many other crypto assets have suffered even larger declines. This is not a “bull market correction” or a “dip,” but a full-blown crypto winter similar to 2022.

Hougan has taken time to analyze the current “winter,” and the more he does, the more he realizes it started as early as January 2025. We just can’t see it because the capital flows from ETFs and digital asset treasury companies (DAT) are covering up the truth. Careful observation of the performance of Bitwise’s top 10 market cap crypto index components since January 1, 2025, reveals a clear three-tier market.

The first group (BTC, ETH, XRP) performed relatively well, with declines between 10.3% and 19.9%. The second group (SOL, LTC, LINK) experienced a typical bear market, with declines between 36.9% and 46.2%. The third group (ADA, AVAX, SUI, DOT) was hit hardest, with declines ranging from 61.9% to 74.7%.

The main difference among these three groups is whether institutional investors have the capacity to invest. The first group benefited from substantial ETF/DAT support throughout the year; the second group’s ETFs were approved in 2025; the third group never received such support. This tiered collapse pattern clearly reveals the critical role of institutional capital during the crypto winter.

Asset Performance Tiering

First Tier (supported by ETFs all year): BTC/ETH/XRP down 10-20%

Second Tier (ETF approved in 2025): SOL/LTC/LINK down 36-46%

Third Tier (no ETF support): ADA/AVAX/SUI/DOT down 61-74%

The scale of institutional support is significant. During this period, ETFs and DAT bought approximately 744,417 Bitcoins, worth about $75 billion. Imagine if this $75 billion support were absent—how much lower would Bitcoin’s price be? Hougan estimates it would have fallen about 60%, putting Bitcoin in the same dire situation as altcoins without ETF support. Since January 2025, retail crypto markets have been in a deep winter, with institutional investors merely masking the true state of certain assets.

Crypto Winter Usually Lasts About 13 Months

Crypto winters typically last around 13 months. For example, Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed in December 2018, lasting 12 months. It peaked again in October 2021 and bottomed in November 2022, also about 13 months. This pattern is not coincidental but reflects the full psychological cycle of markets moving from extreme greed to extreme fear and then recovering.

By this calculation, we are facing a tough period. After all, Bitcoin’s peak was in October 2025, and following the 13-month pattern, the bottom would be around November 2026. But Hougan disagrees. The more he analyzes the current “winter,” the more he realizes it started as early as January 2025. We just can’t see it because the capital flows from ETFs and DAT are covering up the truth.

Starting from January 2025, the current crypto winter has lasted 13 months (until February 2026). This suggests that, according to historical patterns, we may already be near or at the bottom. This provides an important timeframe for long-term investors: the current pain may not last much longer, and spring could be closer than the market expects.

However, historical patterns are not absolute. Although both 2018 and 2022 winters lasted about 13 months, the exact timing of the bottom and the strength of the rebound varied. The rebound after the 2018 bottom was relatively mild, taking months to confirm a trend reversal. The rebound after the 2022 bottom was faster, partly due to improved regulation expectations after the FTX collapse and the approaching halving cycle. How the current winter ends will depend on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and market sentiment.

The Darkest Energy Before Dawn

Hougan emphasizes that recognizing and accepting the crypto winter makes everything clearer. Why do prices continue to fall despite positive news about adoption, regulation, and other developments? Because we are in the depths of the crypto winter. Why is the new Federal Reserve Chair a Bitcoin supporter, yet the crypto Fear & Greed Index is near all-time highs? Because we are in a crypto winter.

If you have followed the crypto market during past winters, whether in 2018 or 2022, you will remember that during the deepest part of winter, good news is meaningless. Major Wall Street recruitments or Morgan Stanley’s increased crypto investments won’t trigger a rebound. These factors may matter in the long run, but now is not the time. The crypto winter doesn’t end with excitement; it ends with exhaustion.

What you need to remember now is that there are indeed many positive developments in crypto. Progress in regulation is real, institutional adoption is real, stablecoins and tokenization are real, and Wall Street acceptance is real. During bear markets, good news is often overlooked, but it doesn’t disappear; it is stored as potential energy. Once the clouds clear and sentiment normalizes, this stored energy will surge back.

So, what factors could dispel the gloom? Strong economic growth might trigger a wave of aggressive risk appetite; positive progress on the Clarity Act could surprise; signs of Bitcoin recognition by sovereign nations might emerge; or it could simply be time passing. As an OG who has experienced multiple crypto winters, Hougan can tell you that the feeling when winter ends is very similar to now: despair, frustration, and lethargy. But the current market correction has not fundamentally changed any core aspect of crypto.

Hougan believes we will rebound strongly soon. Since January 2025, it has been winter, and spring will come very soon. This optimistic outlook, based on historical cycles and the accumulation of potential positive factors, gives investors a reason to stay the course.