Institution: It is expected that the "Small Non-Farm" growth will slow down and will be significantly lower than the January non-farm employment figures.

2026-02-04 08:01:41

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BlockBeats News, on February 4th, independent macroeconomic research firm Continuum Economics’ North America senior economist Dave Sloan stated that the January ADP employment change is expected to increase by 30,000, a slowdown from December’s 41,000.

At the same time, the ADP report data is expected to be significantly lower than the January non-farm payrolls, as we anticipate the overall non-farm employment to grow by 85,000 in January. December’s ADP data was roughly in line with the non-farm payrolls, but recent ADP data has often been weaker, with the average over the past six months being 22,000 below non-farm payrolls. Although the gap has narrowed compared to September and November, it is expected to widen to 50,000 in January. Non-farm employment in January is expected to rebound from recent weakness in the retail sector, which has had little impact on the ADP data.

It is expected that the January ADP segmented data will show a slight improvement in the goods production sector (especially construction), but a slowdown in service sector growth. The recent trend of weaker ADP data compared to non-farm payrolls is most evident in the service industry, with particularly notable differences in education and healthcare sectors. (Jin10)

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