Analysts warn that Ethereum may fall below $2,000 in February! A reverse cup and handle pattern is emerging, with ETH potentially dropping as low as $1,665

Ethereum technicals and on-chain data are simultaneously turning weak, and market analysis indicates that if selling pressure continues to intensify, ETH may face a breakdown below $2,000 in February, with further testing of key support zones.
(Background: Vitalik Buterin announces Ethereum Foundation’s new phase: “Moderate tightening” over the next five years, with individuals adding 16,384 ETH to their investments)
(Additional context: Bitcoin drops below 73,000, Ethereum holds at $2,100, over 170,000 liquidation events across the network with losses exceeding $750 million)

Table of Contents

• Inverse Cup-and-Handle Pattern Forms, ETH Downside Risks Increase
• Moving Average Resistance Clearly Evident, Technical Target at $1,665
• On-Chain Data Supports Technical Outlook, MVRV Zone Shows Support Band
• Macro Uncertainty Rises, Risk Assets Under Pressure

In the case of both technical patterns and on-chain data turning bearish, Ethereum is facing a new wave of downside pressure. Market analysis suggests that if the current trend continues, ETH could break below the $2,000 mark in February, potentially dropping further toward the $1,700 range.

Inverse Cup-and-Handle Pattern Forms, ETH Downside Risks Increase

According to analysis by Cointelegraph analyst Yashu Gola, ETH is currently in a typical “Inverse Cup-and-Handle” pattern, which is generally considered a bearish signal in technical analysis.

This pattern features a rounded head formation, followed by a slight rebound and consolidation, and then a breakdown of the key neckline support, confirming a trend reversal. Gola notes that ETH broke below the approximately $2,960 neckline in January, then attempted a rebound to test that level as resistance but failed to regain it, and subsequently continued downward, consistent with a typical breakdown scenario.

Image source: Yashu Gola

Moving Average Resistance Clearly Evident, Technical Target at $1,665

From a technical indicator perspective, ETH’s recent rebound has also been blocked below the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating heavy selling pressure above and a short-term bearish trend.

Based on the inverse cup-and-handle theory, the downside target is approximately $1,665, representing about a 25% potential decline from current levels. Historical statistics show that this pattern has a relatively high success rate in reaching its target, further raising market caution about subsequent moves.

On-Chain Data Supports Technical Outlook, MVRV Zone Shows Support Band

Beyond technical signals, on-chain data also provides similar indications. Ethereum’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) extreme deviation zones show that the current support band is around $1,725, which overlaps significantly with the downward target estimated from the pattern.

Looking at past cycles, ETH often bottoms out after approaching or breaking below the lowest MVRV zone. For example, during the correction cycles of 2018 and 2025, ETH rebounded noticeably after testing this zone.

Image source: Yashu Gola

Macro Uncertainty Rises, Risk Assets Under Pressure

Analysis also points out that macroeconomic conditions are adding additional pressure on ETH. Some market participants worry that the crypto market may gradually enter a correction phase similar to past “four-year cycles,” leading to a cautious outlook for the overall 2026 market.

Additionally, concerns about a potential bubble in the AI industry have prompted capital to shift toward defensive assets, causing risk assets like cryptocurrencies to come under immediate pressure, with short-term downside clearly evident.

Overall, whether from technical patterns, moving average structures, or on-chain valuation metrics, ETH’s short-term outlook remains cautious. Analysts suggest that if prices further decline toward $1,700, the market may then look for signs of a true bottoming and rebound.