Robinhood CEO predicts the arrival of a "super cycle" in the prediction market: election + sports + entertainment trading volume may surge to trillions of dollars

On February 11, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev stated during the latest earnings call that the prediction market is at an unprecedented expansion starting point and will usher in a “super cycle.” He pointed out that as user demand for event outcome trading continues to grow, the market’s annual trading volume has the potential to reach trillions of dollars in the future.

Vlad Tenev said that prediction markets have become the fastest-growing segment in Robinhood’s history. 2026 will be a key milestone, with not only sports events but also elections, entertainment awards, and macro-political events becoming important trading themes. He specifically mentioned that the World Cup and ongoing Olympic Games will provide sustained momentum for event contract trading.

Prediction markets allow users to bet on various outcomes, from sports scores and election results to entertainment awards and government policy directions, with the scope continuously expanding. Over the past year, industry attention has surged explosively. In addition to sports contracts, non-sports events have also been active. For example, a week after the NFL season ended, trading volume around US government shutdown contracts was also significant.

Robinhood launched its prediction market service in August 2025, initially supporting only NFL and college football events, then quickly expanding to Oscar awards, elections, and other scenarios. Financial reports show that revenue from “other” sources, including prediction markets, grew from $72 million in Q3 2025 to $147 million in Q4, nearly doubling.

Trading volume for event contracts also continued to rise: 3.4 billion contracts in January 2026, 2.9 billion in December, 3 billion in November, and 2.5 billion in October, indicating that user participation is reaching a scale effect.

However, Robinhood’s overall performance remains under pressure. Revenue in Q4 increased 27% year-over-year to $1.3 billion, but net profit dropped to $605 million, below the $916 million in the same period of 2024. Due to slowing crypto business and intensified competition from traditional brokerages, the company’s stock price fell more than 7% after hours, with a year-to-date decline of 24%.

As demand for prediction markets, event contract trading, election platforms, and sports prediction contracts continues to rise, this emerging financial form is gradually shifting from a fringe product to a mainstream speculative tool, and its long-term potential remains worth ongoing attention.