Nearly 25% of Draftkings Sportsbook Revenue Contested by Prediction Platforms

Recent data indicates that nearly a quarter of Draftkings’ sportsbook revenue is now being challenged by the rapid rise of federally regulated prediction market platforms.

Sports Prediction Platforms Capture Growing Share of $14B Betting Market

Prediction market platforms such as Kalshi have expanded rapidly into sports trading, with sports-related contracts now accounting for roughly 90% of fees on the platform. According to an analysis by the Financial Times (FT), the estimated annualized sports revenue at Kalshi stands near $1.3 billion, a figure that approaches one-quarter of Draftkings’ sportsbook revenue.

Kalshi’s monthly active users climbed from about 600,000 at the beginning of 2025 to more than 5.1 million by early 2026. Overall prediction market trading volume reached $63.5 billion in 2025, up from $15.8 billion in 2024. The report arrives on the heels of Bitcoin.com News’ recent coverage detailing how sportsbooks were battered by prediction market activity during the last Super Bowl.

The broader U.S. sports gambling market is valued at approximately $14 billion annually, with prediction markets estimated to be drawing about $8 billion in activity away from traditional sportsbooks. During the Super Bowl alone, prediction markets attracted $630 million in bets, accounting for 80% of year-over-year wagering growth.

Draftkings reported full-year 2025 revenue of $6.05 billion, up 27% from the prior year, with sportsbook handle reaching $53.6 billion. Sportsbook and iGaming represented 93% of total revenue. Despite those gains, Draftkings’ 2026 revenue guidance of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion fell below analyst expectations of roughly $7.2 billion, contributing to a 13.5% decline in its stock price.

Over the past year, igamingfuture.com reports that both Draftkings and Flutter, the parent of Fanduel, have lost more than half their market value. Company leadership has said prediction markets have had minimal impact so far and primarily affect lower-margin customers. Draftkings has launched its own prediction product in 38 states and views the segment as a potential $10 billion opportunity.

A central difference between the two models lies in regulation. Prediction markets operate under federal oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing nationwide access, including in states such as California and Texas, where traditional sportsbooks are not legalized. By contrast, sportsbooks are regulated at the state level and are legal in 39 states and Washington, D.C…

Still, the legal elements of this matter are still being contested across several states. Prediction platforms function as peer-to-peer exchanges, charging transaction fees rather than taking a house position. Traditional sportsbooks are house-banked operations that typically hold between 7% and 10% of wagers.

Supporters argue that the exchange model can offer improved pricing transparency and avoid practices such as limiting winning accounts. At the same time, more than a dozen states are contesting the legality of prediction markets, and some major leagues restrict endorsements.

As annual legal sports wagering volumes potentially approach $220 billion, competition between state-regulated sportsbooks and federally overseen prediction exchanges is likely to intensify. While Draftkings remains profitable and diversified, the data points to a shifting competitive dynamic in U.S. sports betting.

FAQ ❓

• **How much of Draftkings’ sportsbook revenue is challenged by prediction markets?**Kalshi’s estimated $1.3 billion in annualized sports revenue is roughly one-quarter of Draftkings’ sportsbook revenue.
• **Why are prediction markets expanding nationally?**They operate under federal CFTC oversight, allowing access in states where traditional sports betting is not legalized.
• **How large is the U.S. sports gambling market?**The U.S. sports gambling market is valued at about $14 billion annually.
• **What was Draftkings’ total revenue in 2025?**Draftkings reported $6.05 billion in total revenue for 2025.