The U.S. Supreme Court ruling indicates a reduction in actual tariff rates, and changes in Trump's tariff policies

The Supreme Court’s ruling is expected to reduce the effective tariff rate in the United States. Following the decision declaring the “reciprocal tariffs” illegal, President Donald Trump implemented “global tariffs” under Section 122 of the Trade Act, which is expected to lower the average effective tariff rate from 16% to approximately 13.7%.

Section 122 of the Trade Act allows the President to impose tariffs in emergency situations for a maximum duration of 150 days. After this period, the actual tariff rate is expected to revert to 9.1%. Although this measure can be extended, it requires approval from Congress.

The Trump administration plans to establish a new tariff system during this 150-day period through Section 301 of the Trade Act and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. Such tariff changes will directly impact the national economy and contribute to fiscal revenue.

According to analysis by the Yale University Budget Research Institute, if a 15% tariff is maintained, it is estimated to generate a total of $2.2 trillion in fiscal revenue between 2026 and 2035. This is slightly lower than the original revenue estimates based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the new tariff policy is expected to keep U.S. tariff revenues at roughly the same level as before this year. The long-term impact of such tariff fluctuations on global markets and the economy remains to be seen.