Futures Bitcoin trading volume drops to its lowest level in 2024: Are institutions pulling out of the market?

Since rechecking the $63,000 level on Saturday, Bitcoin’s price has increased by 10%, bringing hope to the bulls amid a market where stocks are moving in the opposite direction due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, demand for Bitcoin futures has sharply declined, with open interest (OI) on the market reaching its lowest level since 2024. This trend has traders worried that institutional investors may be pulling out of the market.

Total Bitcoin futures open interest volume, USD | Source: CoinGlass Last Sunday, the open interest volume of Bitcoin futures on major exchanges dropped to $32 billion, a 20% decrease from a month earlier. Even when measured in Bitcoin to account for recent price declines, current demand for BTC futures remains at its lowest since August 2024, at just 491,300 BTC. Part of this decline can be attributed to forced liquidations of bulls caught off guard by market volatility.

Demand for leveraged long positions has decreased significantly since Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.

Annualized premium rate of two-month Bitcoin futures | Source: Laevitas.ch The annualized basis rate on monthly Bitcoin futures has fallen to its lowest in a year, at just 2%. In neutral market conditions, this indicator typically ranges from 5% to 10% to compensate for longer settlement times. Worryingly, this rate has not maintained an upward trend over the past 12 months, even as the market experienced a 50% increase from April to May 2025.

Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to gold and stock markets may have caused investors to shift focus away from cryptocurrencies. However, claiming that institutional investors have exited the market is inaccurate, as Bitcoin ETF funds on exchanges still maintain an average daily trading volume of over $3 billion. Among ETF investors are many large mutual fund managers and pension funds.

Additionally, over $79 billion worth of Bitcoin is currently held directly on the blockchain by publicly listed companies, including Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US), and Metaplanet (MPLTF US). Countries like Bhutan, El Salvador, and the United Arab Emirates have also increased their Bitcoin holdings. While there is still a long way to go for widespread institutional adoption, current conditions show the market is still far from being considered “zero.”

Bitcoin Derivatives Market Shows Stability Despite Bullish Hesitation

The Bitcoin options market confirms that derivatives products remain stable, even as Bitcoin continues to fail to reclaim the $72,000 level.

BTC call and put option premiums on Deribit | Source: Laevitas.ch The spread between put and call options for Bitcoin remained at 0.7 on Monday, indicating lower demand for puts compared to calls. Although there was a short-term increase in demand for bearish strategies on Friday, this trend did not last. Overall, the options market shows no signs of major issues or prolonged stress in recent months.

Derivatives data also reflect a lack of confidence from the bulls, especially as Bitcoin’s current price is 45% below its all-time high. However, there is no evidence that institutional investors have exited the market. The $7.5 billion open interest on Bitcoin futures contracts at CME clearly indicates active institutional participation. Despite selling pressure, each short position is balanced by a long position, helping to maintain market stability.

Finally, fear and uncertainty will diminish as buyers return, marking the end of the downtrend. While it remains uncertain whether the $60,000 level is the cycle bottom, Bitcoin once again proves to be a safe asset with a fixed supply. The $1.4 trillion cryptocurrency market has demonstrated resilience, with no signs of imminent failure.