'Gold Pillars Crumbling?' Strategist Questions Durability of Gold’s Geopolitical Bid

Gold’s geopolitical premium may be fading as crude oil and silver eye powerful upside, with shifting global tensions and market volatility poised to redraw the commodity landscape, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone.

Gold’s Geopolitical Bid Faces Pressure as Crude and Silver Gain Momentum

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone shared on social media platform X on March 3 that shifting geopolitical dynamics and commodity market trends could signal changes for gold, crude oil, and silver.

He wrote:

“ Gold pillars crumbling? Crude spike on Iran could fuel sales.”

“The elimination of anti-US leaders in Syria, Venezuela, and Iran may mark an end game for gold’s geopolitical bid, which was sparked by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine,” the strategist opined.

His remarks frame gold’s rally as closely tied to geopolitical tensions that intensified following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The strategist indicated that if those tensions ease or political leadership changes alter global risk perceptions, the demand underpinning gold’s safe-haven appeal could weaken.

Chart shared by McGlone on X on March 3. The chart he also posted, titled “Iran War May Mark as Good as It Gets for Gold,” shows gold spot prices measured against their 100-week moving average, alongside China’s 10-year government bond yield. The data indicate gold trading near 1.6 times its 100-week moving average, above a dotted 1.4 level that previously marked peaks during earlier stress cycles. The visual also highlights “Russia Invades Ukraine” and “US-Israel Kill Iranian Leaders,” while China’s 10-year yield trends down toward roughly 0.8%, underscoring the inverse relationship between declining sovereign yields and gold’s outperformance.

McGlone also pointed to potential strength in other commodities, stating:

“Brent crude oil near $80 a barrel could set 2026 highs alongside $100 silver, on the back of two key factors: autocorrelation and a minor rebound in stock market volatility.”

The reference to autocorrelation suggests that prior price trends may reinforce future movements, while a modest increase in equity market volatility could support renewed interest in certain hard assets. His outlook highlights diverging paths within commodities, where gold’s geopolitical premium may soften even as crude oil and silver approach higher price thresholds under evolving macro and market conditions.

FAQ 🧭

• Why could gold’s rally lose momentum?

Gold’s safe-haven demand may weaken if geopolitical tensions ease and global risk perceptions improve.

• What is driving the bullish outlook for crude oil?

Brent crude near $80 a barrel could climb further due to price trend autocorrelation and rising market volatility.

• Why is silver positioned for potential upside?

A rebound in stock market volatility and supportive price trends could push silver toward higher price thresholds.

• How should investors view diverging commodity trends?

Investors may need to reassess portfolio exposure as gold softens while crude oil and silver show relative strength.