Gate News reports that on March 13, according to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses placed bets within the past day that “Netanyahu will be ousted within the year,” with a total open interest of $10,100. The current probability of his ousting within the year is 47%.
Background information indicates that after the escalation of the conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a relatively unbalanced position domestically. Although polls show his ruling coalition may face challenges in the upcoming elections, the wartime atmosphere has significantly reduced the opposition’s space in Parliament. As the phased resolution of the Gaza hostage situation approaches at the end of 2025, large-scale protests within the country have noticeably diminished. Netanyahu has successfully positioned himself as an indispensable wartime leader, with 53% trust in his leadership in polls, and overall support for actions against Iran reaching 73%-94%.
The relevant addresses are: 0xd3481a261f3ee307bf821a1d7a66a79bb8b6d759 and 0x1890f3de419014c80293f7e93fb06162a0b0f813. Based on trading patterns, this trader may have behaviors such as taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening a position.
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