At 8 a.m. this morning, the long-awaited Fractal Mainnet finally went live. Fractal adopts a unique mining mechanism called ‘Cadence Mining’, where every 3 blocks mined, two of them will be mined without permission, and the other one will be merged mining. This mechanism has given rise to many Fractal ecosystem mining projects, while also inspiring users to lease computing power to participate in mining with enthusiasm.

Therefore, due to the interests involved, MainnetMining output and FB price have become the community’s focus of attention. Although the OTC price of FB has already pumped to around 19 u, many community members express concerns that renting Computing Power to participate in the initial mining may end in a loss.

Is it true that participating in the Fractal head mine as an ordinary user is a prelude to ‘make money’ or ‘Cut Loss’? In this article, Odaily Star Daily will briefly analyze the output and benefits of Fractal Mining, hoping to provide readers with reference.

Mining cost benefit estimation

According to the data from the Fractal blockchain explorer, the current Fractal merged mining computing power is about 90 EH/s, and the permissionless mining computing power is 10000 PH/s (1 EH/s = 1000 PH/s).

It is known that the rental price of 1 PH/s Computing Power on the current market is between 3000-5000 USDT per month. Even if calculated at the lowest rental cost, with the price of FB 19 USDT, a daily output of 5.26 FB achieves break-even.

The more widely used Mining output calculation method in the community is as follows:

Based on an average block time of 30 seconds and two-thirds of the output being exempt from licensing, approximately 72,000 FB are produced daily, with approximately 48,000 FB obtained through exempt Mining. Therefore, 1 PH/s of Computing Power can roughly obtain 4.8 FB per day, calculated at an off-exchange price of 19 USDT per FB, the daily income for Miners is approximately 91.2 USDT.

If this calculation method is used to estimate, renting Computing Power to mine FB Head Mine will not only not make money, but also as the total Computing Power of the network increases without permission, the FB rewards allocated per 1 PH/s will continue to decrease, and the losses will be further expanded.

Relatively Dynamic Computing Method:

The above calculation is basically based on the scenario where Computing Power continues to increase and the daily output remains unchanged, but the fact is that although the average block time preset by Fractal is 30 seconds, the daily output is about 72,000 FB, the current network average block speed is significantly faster than expected.

As shown in the figure below, Fractal Mainnet mined 2500 blocks and produced over 62,500 FB coins in just 10 hours after launch. This means that as the computing power increases, the mining speed of blocks also accelerates. The actual daily output will exceed the previous estimated 72,000 coins.

Therefore, the Fractal Mainnet’s actual average block time during the initial mining period is approximately 10 to 15 seconds, which means that FB’s production today may be between 140,000 and 210,000 coins. Even with the most conservative estimate of 140,000 FB produced, two-thirds of which are mined without a license, i.e., 93,000 FB, 1 PH/s of Computing Power can earn approximately 10.3 FB today. Based on the off-market price of FB at 19 USDT, Miners’ daily income is about 195.7 USDT.

If this calculation method is used to estimate, as long as the price of FB remains above 10 USDT, players who lease Computing Power to mine FB primary mine can still make a profit.

However, this calculation method is only relatively dynamic. Changes in the overall Computing Power of the network, daily output, and FB price will affect the Mining output and revenue. Whether Fractal Mining is worth long-term participation still needs to be re-evaluated after the network runs stably.

Fractal still full of challenges

There are still some doubts about the network of Fractal Mainnet, which is being widely discussed in terms of Mining revenue.

The founder of mempool posted on the X platform that Fractal Bitcoin seems to be a ‘clone’ copy of Bitcoin Core v2 4.0.1, with its premined Tokens accounting for 50% of the diluted supply of Fractal Bitcoin. Miners will need a full two years (one Fractal Bitcoin halving period) to earn half of the rewards obtained by the founders on the first day. At the same time, Fractal Bitcoin has many meaningless technical terms that only exist in the White Paper, so in his opinion, it is just another garbage fork of BTC (shitfork).

There have also been Node issues and long periods of not producing blocks in the network operation, but the team’s response speed to the issues is also relatively fast, and the Node behavior was promptly fixed and a new Node version was provided quickly.

At the same time, based on the off-exchange price of 19 USDT, the Market Cap of FB has approached nearly 4 billion USD. Although FB can now be transferred through the Fractal Mainnet, there is currently no DEC/CEX listing for the FB Token, and user trading still relies on off-exchange OTC, with low efficiency and opacity, casting a “layer of uncertainty” over the future PA of FB.

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