Metrics Ventures Market Observation: Familiar Chaotic Market, Different Waiting and Expectation

Crypto market secondary fund Metrics Ventures October market observation guide

1/ The on-exchange market has continued to be in a disorderly consolidation for 6 months, with occasional increases in trading volume but still overall sluggish. A few altcoins have attempted to break out with independent trends, but most attempts have ended in failure due to the apparent lack of liquidity.

2/ Despite the chaotic state of the industry, which can be compared to the situation in the middle of 2023, there has been a fundamental change in the flow of on-chain funds and the mindset of participating players. The on-chain profit effect within the month has been quite good. In our view, the trend of zone since early 2024 has undergone more than 6 months of repeated confirmation, and the industry’s shift may be inevitable.

3/ At the current point in time, we believe that the direction of the Capital Market between China and the United States, the election, and the upcoming FOMC are not events worth gambling in the Digital Money market. Returning to the essence of funds and chips, unless there is a disturbance from a newly added Black Swan Event, the encryption upward trend is still continuing. Avoiding the confusion of the long and short game with net value erosion brought by disorderly oscillation at the end, holding chips and waiting is the best policy.

Overall market situation and review of market trends

The market since September has essentially given us many important signals in our view:

①After several confirmations of the funding situation (i.e., cryptocurrency price trends), fundamentals (project updates and innovations), and information (offline conferences) since March 2024, more cryptocurrency market funds have finally chosen the retro form of pure chip gaming, returning to the original intention. This is also another steel nail hammered into the coffin of so-called value coins. Currently, the only remaining long-term mainline in the industry is still BTC, gambling, and payment (stacking chips).

②The bottom chips of ETH Ethereum started to loosen fatally after the rise trend broke through the number of weeks, considering the scale of the recent ETF of ETH Ethereum and the reasonable expectations in the future. The real major test of ETH Ethereum has already come. From the perspective of the industry, only excessive Liquidity injection and far beyond the exclusivity of the previous round of Defi gameplay updates happening on ETH Ethereum can save this declining trend, leaving ETH Ethereum time to quietly count down.

The pure chips Rebound of the Shanzhai coin did not go smoothly, and the overall success rate and attracted trading volume were too low, resulting in another embarrassing situation of the VC/ANTI-VC zone. In fact, the flow of funds in/out of the Digital Money industry has undergone a potentially decisive change in 2024, further restricting the late-stage exit space for VCs, and the situation may deteriorate faster and deeper than imagined.

In terms of the market, the Fluctuation is becoming more disorderly. In fact, there is no strong external factor to expect pump or fall. The weakness in the market is undoubtedly revealed from the Trading Volume. In this disorderly Fluctuation phase, both long and short positions have no value in betting rates. We focus on following the price behavior near the support level and resistance level to avoid unnecessary wear and tear.

The trend is surging, and those who follow the trend will prosper. Overall, it is inevitable that the global reservoir Consensus, which is essentially a casino, is the trend. Liquid Ventures must go with the flow. We have already established the first outpost, and we may further perceive the future of the industry in it.