The most powerful president in American history (and his black MAGA revolution)

Author: Chairman Rabbit/tuzhuxi As of the time of writing this article on 20241106, multiple media outlets have announced or predicted that Trump will be elected as the 47th President of the United States. The following is a quick review.

1. The victory of the grassroots ‘revolution’. Yesterday’s article, ‘The Eve of the ‘Revolution’ in the United States,’ analyzed the confrontation between the two camps of Trump and Harris, which is essentially a confrontation between the grassroots/people and the elite ruling class in the United States. This is a struggle between the ‘barefoot’ and the ‘shod,’ a struggle of ‘rural encircling the city,’ a war between ‘rice and rifles’ and ‘airplanes, tanks, and cannons,’ and a ‘revolution’ without gunpowder. In the end, Trump’s side emerged victorious, sweeping the board. The Democratic Party was swept out the door.

2. The most powerful president in American history. Trump not only won the presidency, but the Republican Party also took control of the Senate and is expected to consolidate the majority in the House of Representatives. At the same time, in the Supreme Court, the Republican/conservative side has an absolute advantage with a ratio of 6:3 (including three judges hand-picked by Trump). The separation of powers is combined into one. It should be noted that today’s Republican Party is not the same as four years ago or eight years ago, but rather a party led by Trump himself, more appropriately called the Trump Party. This concentration of power and influence is unprecedented in American history. Trump may be the most powerful president in American history.

3. The United States has completed a major political realignment (the Great Realignment), and many stakeholders have repositioned themselves. The Republican Party has completely transformed into a party with the middle and lower class citizens as its core base. Through this election, it has also incorporated certain black, Hispanic, and young demographics. It is no longer the party that people imagine as representing big capitalists, big businesspeople, big financiers, and the bourgeoisie.

4. Half of Americans believe that the United States has entered a dark age. Although the United States has given birth to the most powerful president in history, who has won the enthusiastic support of half of the American people and put forward the exciting slogan of “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), American politics is more divided than ever, and society is more torn apart than ever. Half of the population believes that an extremely evil person, analogous to Hitler, fascists, and Nazi political thugs, has come to power and will do everything in the next four years to destroy everything familiar about the American system and take the country in another direction. They feel unprecedentedly lost and desperate about the country’s future, sensing the darkest moment. Therefore, at least on one thing, Americans have a Consensus: that is the label hyped by Musk: “Dark MAGA”—MAGA, ultimately, is dark. To MAGA supporters, this is a triumph, a banner of revolution; to the left, it is evil, terror, and darkness.

5. New Connotation of MAGA Politics: The Trump administration will explore new ideologies and value systems in the United States. The new MAGAism will include multiple dimensions:

1) On the government side, the first is to greatly strengthen the power of the president/executive branch, and radiate the legislature and the judiciary through the president as the central political leader. The second is a larger purge and replacement of the federal bureaucracy to bring more non-Washington talent into the government; The third is to increase the color of authoritarianism, increase the concentration of decision-making, improve the efficiency of government implementation, and remove unnecessary redundancy and bureaucratic procedures in the old system2) In terms of domestic economic and social policies**: in the underlying framework, return to “marketism”: small government, low taxes, less regulation and less intervention, limited welfare, support for capital, “trickle-down economy”, and use market forces to attract capital back; In terms of economic structure, trade protectionism has been adopted externally, and industrial policies and mechanisms have been formed internally to encourage the development of specific industries, with the aim of revitalizing traditional industries and manufacturing industries locally. Attitude towards big business and big capital: Require American companies to “stress politics” and return to the United States to invest in construction3) Domestic culture: vigorously promote and develop American nativism, patriotism, and nationalism (the United States is a “nation”, JD Vance), establish a white-centered Juche cultural status, and oppose liberalism/progressivism/woke. The new administration will influence and shape American society through the Supreme Court, legislation, executive orders, and speeches by political and opinion leaders4) Foreign Economy: Anti-globalization, anti-free trade, anti-neoliberal framework, comprehensively escalating the use of tariff tools, keeping foreign goods out, and using the pressure and driving force for the development of domestic industries in the United States5) International Politics: “isolationism”, “non-interventionism”, reducing investment in international geopolitics, and reducing the payment for the US-led international order, Reassessing the political and economic relationship between the United States and its allies**6) In pursuing these goals, the Trump administration will be empowered by Elon Musk, the “new Silicon Valley.” We will see the formation of a new techno-authoritarian-conservative political alliance 6.Can the United States revive local manufacturing? **Can only raising external tariffs and lowering domestic tariffs solve the problem? Of course it is not enough. The development of manufacturing/industry requires the optimization of infrastructure construction, logistics and supply chain; Strong supportive policies and business environment at the federal and local levels are needed (a large number of environmental regulations, labor protection regulations, etc., all increase costs); There needs to be a different model of industrial relations (the U.S. is both antagonistic and completely different from East Asian societies) and there needs to be a matching worker culture/values (work attitude). These are important conditions. The 2019 edition of “American Factory” is a good reflection of these problems. Moreover, even if the manufacturing industry is revitalized, it may not always be converted into jobs: because of the factors of artificial intelligence and automation. If the cost of workers is high, the new manufacturing industry will be more inclined to use artificial intelligence and automation equipment, that is, the industry is capital-intensive, technology-intensive, rather than labor-intensive. So, reviving manufacturing in the U.S. isn’t simply the same as creating a lot of manufacturing jobs. The human labor force will still be engaged in low-quality, low-skilled, low-income service industries. This is a larger trend

7. Maybe twelve years. Returning to American politics. This is President Trump’s last term. During this time, he will consider his political legacy more. He will fully support Vice President JD Vance and groom him as the successor of the MAGA cause. If everything goes smoothly, JD Vance may be elected president in four years; if he does well, he may even have another four years. Don’t underestimate JD Vance’s ability: he has great potential and possesses such political talent. In this way, with one term after another, the presidency will last twelve years, exerting a profound influence on the political, social, cultural, and national destiny of the United States.

8. The New Politics of the United States. We have previously done some analysis, saying that the values of young Americans on economic issues are “left-leaning,” believing in progressivism, sympathizing with socialism, and not resisting socialism. In other words, at the level of economic values, the future will be more similar to us. Will Trump’s inauguration change young people’s views on economic issues? It’s hard to say. But after all, Trump is a grassroots political party, a populist party, following the employment and survival of ordinary people. Therefore, the Trump party can include left-wing economic policies. On the other hand, the technology-authoritarian-conservative political alliance of Trump (and Musk) will bring more authoritarian, paternalistic, and strong leader colors to American political culture. This will make it even more similar to East Asian traditions. In other words, there is a possibility that the future America will be more similar to us.

9. The collective right-wing shift in the United States. Generally speaking, American society is moving towards a collective right-wing path, which will have an impact on the entire Western society, guiding and encouraging people with similar political values and ideologies to take the political stage in various Western countries, grasp the public discourse, and influence and shape society. Many in the West are concerned that the cause of ‘liberal democracy’ will face significant setbacks and challenges. Yes, that’s right. The ‘beacon’ of the free world, the United States, will lead countries into the ‘non-liberal democracy’ channel. History has not ended, only the end of the ‘Fukuyama’.

10. Focus on international politics. What will Trump do after taking office?

1)The first “victim” is Zelensky. Trump will pressure Ukraine. Ukraine will be forced to give up part of its territory and make peace with Russia. Trump will try to repair relations with Russia and intends to “make Russia the center”. This has been repeatedly mentioned by some of his aides and is basically open. 2) On the European side, due to Trump’s imposition of tariffs on the EU, abandonment of Europe on Russia and Ukraine, as well as reduced investment and commitment to NATO, the relationship between the United States and Europe will be very difficult. Especially the mainstream political parties in Europe are very dislike Trump. The British Labour Party will have a difficult time dealing with Trump. If the relationship between the United States and Europe is not good, of course, it will provide space and opportunities for China. 3) The situation in Japan and South Korea is the same. Trump will re-evaluate the security and economic relations with Japan and South Korea. His ideal plan is to attract investment from Japanese and South Korean companies to the United States and help develop the domestic industry of the United States. 4) Regarding Taiwan: Trump believes that Taiwan has “stolen” the U.S. chip industry and used it to coerce the United States. Trump’s plan is to use “carrot and stick” to attract Taiwanese companies to invest in the United States. For Taiwan, this is very embarrassing. Without the chip industry, it will not only affect the economy, but also greatly reduce its strategic value to the United States. Nearby Japan and South Korea will be watching eagerly, hoping to get a share of Taiwan’s chip industry. And American companies that are heavily invested in Taiwan (such as NVIDIA) will also feel political pressure in the future. Finally, under the framework of “isolationism”, Trump has no interest in Taiwan and the South China Sea, and has no intention of conflicting with China. If there is any difference between this term and the first term, it is that Trump will be less influenced by the “deep state” and be more able to independently determine foreign policy. 5) Regarding China: Trump will initiate a comprehensive depeg. The first type is to restrict China’s entry into the United States, with a 60% tariff imposed on the spot, and possibly more tariffs on key commodities. If there is any difference between the current Trump and the past, it is that: Trump in 2018 hoped to use trade to open China’s doors and force China to comply with the rules. But at that time, the White House trade representative had not yet revitalized the thinking of the American domestic industry. After 2025, Trump is dominated by industrial thinking, and tariffs are just a means to keep China out of the United States. Some people ask whether Chinese companies can invest in the United States (FDI), establish factories locally, create jobs and tax revenue for the United States, and then Trump will allow Chinese brands of “made in America” to enter the U.S. market? My judgment is: no. Trump’s election agenda is to ban Chinese investment in the United States and to treat China as a geopolitical and security enemy. The author has written about this issue many times, introducing the “asymmetry” of Sino-US policy. The second type of policy is to further strike against China, such as restricting the export of key technology products to China; imposing sanctions on Chinese industries and companies; and restricting the inflow of American capital into Chinese industries and companies. Trade war, economic war, financial war, and technological war are all launched. This is the stance that Trump has taken. 6) Middle East/Israel issue: Still needs to be observed. Trump believes that he can influence Netanyahu and influence Israel. But Netanyahu is now a “salesman” responsible for promoting Israel’s far-right policies. Israel now has its own logic and is using it to coerce the United States. It depends on how much Trump is willing to play with Israel. Does he want to press Israel to the ground, or let Israel escalate the conflict, or even spread the war to Iran. It must be known that MAGA is isolationist, and the base of MAGA has no appetite or interest in the United States getting involved in the Middle East. Trump must clearly tell Israel about the isolationism of the United States. 11. The Democratic Party, which is detached from the masses and corrupt. Looking back at the Democratic Party, with the support of big businesses, the entire government system, mainstream media, the entire entertainment and cultural industry, the entire intellectual community, and the support of most urban elites, in the face of “big guns and cannons”, they have lost so badly in front of “small rice and rifles”, indicating how unpopular this government has been for more than four years. And in fact, the Democratic Party lacks reflection. All the comments are still about following Trump, saying how the American people do not realize how important this election is, and saying that American democracy is going to be finished. Looking at Harris’s interviews and speeches, there is no reflection or facing of the problems, as if they really do not think there is anything insufficient about their government. In China, there is a saying, “The greatest danger of the ruling party is to be detached from the masses”. The Democratic Party is a party that is completely detached from the masses, corrupt, arrogant, and self-righteous. It is inevitable to experience such a brutal defeat, and only through such a brutal defeat can we think deeply and seek a new direction.

12. About Biden. What Democrats have been pondering in their hearts all along is: What kind of historical position should be given to Biden? Is he a hero who retires at the peak? Or a sinner who clings to power? A hero or a bear? This judgment entirely depends on whether Harris can be elected. If Harris fails to be elected and fails to pass the baton, then Biden is a bear, a historical sinner on the Democratic side: he should have retired earlier. Harris should not have been chosen as vice president in the first place.

13. Evaluation of Harris. Harris showed up in a critical moment, but she didn’t have the ability and skills. She didn’t have enough ability. She was not ready, nor was she convincing. As the saying goes, “there is no great general in Shu, and Liao Hua takes the vanguard.” The fact proves that she is “useless”. Politics is cruel, and Harris, who failed in the election, will also be swept into the “garbage dump of history” and basically disappear from the political arena - there will be no day for her to make a comeback. And her vice presidential candidate Tim Walz will be instantly forgotten.

14. About this election, many people severely misjudged. The last “bellwether county” Clallam County’s unfortunate death was just an episode. There is a professor named Allan Lichtman who claims to have guessed right nine times out of ten in the past ten elections, “can predict the result without looking at the candidates.” He chose Harris this time and gave a bunch of reasons. Upon careful examination, his answers to the evaluation criteria he proposed are extremely subjective and completely detached from the reality of the United States. Such predictions are simply a joke. In the Chinese community, there have been many predictions of Harris’s victory (even a landslide) in the past two weeks, including those claimed to be experts, self-media, and netizens, creating an atmosphere of Harris’s imminent victory on Chinese websites. The judgment of these people lacks foundation and has not followed the development of American politics and the election.

This is only part of the article. If you follow it all the way, you can grasp a lot of information about the U.S. election and U.S. politics so as not to make fundamental misjudgments. The quality of analysis is often better than that of English media: why Biden withdrew from the election; why Harris was replaced; why Harris didn’t work; why JD Vance is a good choice; what does the addition of figures such as Musk and Joe Rogan mean; how to view the election, etc.