Shanghai Securities Observer · Future Industry Five-Year Outlook | Humanoid Robots: Key Grip for Forming New Quality Productivity in the Future

□ China Macroeconomic Research Institute Xu Ce China Economic Information Network He Sai

□ Humanoid robots are one of the most important areas in the future industry. With the acceleration of technology, humanoid robots are expected to be applied in various scenarios such as industrial production and family life in the next 5 to 10 years, becoming an important tool to form new productive forces, profoundly changing the production and living methods of human beings, and reshaping the development pattern of various industries.

China attaches great importance to the humanoid robot industry. Under policy incentives, the complete supporting industry chain for the development of humanoid robots in China is accelerating, and key links are gradually being replaced by domestic products. The innovative R&D strength of domestic enterprises continues to grow, and a number of domestic humanoid robot products are being launched successively.

The future humanoid robot market has a huge demand, and the overall market scale will exceed that of automobiles, driving the rapid development of the upstream supporting industry chain system and bringing development opportunities for domestic substitutes for key components and core technologies. The dedicated large models used for humanoid robots will also experience rapid development and become a key area for the development of the new generation of “artificial intelligence +”.

Activating the innovative development momentum of humanoid robot industry requires deepening technological system reform, promoting industry integration, and improving the basic conditions for industry development. We need to further promote the construction of application scenarios, enhance industry support capabilities, deepen international exchanges and cooperation, improve governance systems, cultivate and strengthen innovative entities of enterprises, and build a technological innovation system for the humanoid robot manufacturing industry.

Humanoid robots are the key driver of future new productive forces, which will profoundly transform the way humans produce and live, accelerate the breakthrough of artificial intelligence technology, and also serve as an important stage for future industrial and technological competition among major countries. With the accelerated evolution of technology, humanoid robots have become a new high ground for technological competition, a new track for future industries, and a new engine for economic development. Currently, China’s conditions and industrial foundation for the development of humanoid robots are constantly strengthening. The central and local governments have issued a series of policies to plan and layout the humanoid robot industry, and the related complete supporting industrial chain is accelerating its formation. At the same time, the domestic super large-scale market contains various real application needs, accelerating the commercialization of humanoid robots. In the next five years, major initiatives should be implemented to promote the integration of the industry, humanoid robots, and artificial intelligence; implement major reforms to unleash the vitality of the humanoid robot industry; and promote major projects to consolidate the foundation for the development of the humanoid robot industry.

1. Humanoid robots are the key to opening the door to new productive forces in the future

The technology of humanoid robots is evolving rapidly and is expected to be applied in various scenarios such as industrial production and household life in the next 5 to 10 years. It will become an important tool for creating new productive forces, profoundly transforming the way humans produce and live, and reshaping the development pattern of various industries. At the same time, humanoid robots are also an ideal carrier for artificial intelligence, accelerating the cultivation of multimodal large models and speeding up the breakthrough of artificial intelligence technology through interaction with the real world. Humanoid robots are also the epitome of national industrial and technological strength. Their practical application and mass production will also have an impact on the competition pattern of major powers in the world.

(1) Humanoid robots are new labor tools that will reshape the development pattern of various industries.

Humanoid robots are typical representatives of new labor tools. The “Guiding Opinions on Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots” issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly points out that humanoid robots are expected to become disruptive products after computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles, which will profoundly change the production and lifestyle of human beings and reshape the global industrial development pattern. By imitating human appearance, form, and behavioral abilities, humanoid robots can seamlessly connect with all existing infrastructure and tools of human beings, help humans perform difficult tasks in various application scenarios, and have flexibility and versatility comparable to or even surpassing that of humans. Compared with traditional industrial robots, humanoid robots no longer rely on preset programs to perform tasks, but have the ability to perceive the environment, learn and make autonomous decisions, enabling them to adapt to diverse scenarios, perform more complex tasks, and adjust strategies in real time to cope with uncertain factors, breaking through the disadvantages of traditional industrial robots that can only work at fixed locations according to fixed procedures. The above-mentioned characteristics of humanoid robots make them one of the new labor tools that will constitute new productive forces, and are expected to disrupt various industries.

（二）Humanoid robots are the ideal carriers of artificial intelligence, which will accelerate the breakthrough of artificial intelligence technology.

Humanoid robots are the combination of artificial intelligence brains and robot bodies. Jensen Huang, the founder and CEO of NVIDIA, pointed out that the next wave of artificial intelligence will be embodied intelligence, which is an intelligent system capable of understanding, reasoning, and interacting with the physical world. As an ideal carrier of general artificial intelligence, humanoid robots will lead the forefront of artificial intelligence research and promote the development of artificial intelligence in multimodal and intelligent interaction. When humanoid robots interact with the real environment, they will obtain complex perceptual information through various sensors such as vision, hearing, and touch, and inevitably collect and process a large amount of data, which will be fed to large models for end-to-end large-scale training and computation, cultivating the multimodal fusion capability of large models, and then accelerating breakthroughs in artificial intelligence.

The humanoid robot is the culmination of industry and technological strength and will be a key competitive scenario in the future.

Humanoid robots are the culmination of a series of high-tech technologies, including high-performance chips, control software, visual and auditory sensors, electric-hydraulic joints, flexible artificial skin, mobile communication, etc. The development of the humanoid robot industry requires a comprehensive industrial supporting system from components to complete machines in the on-chain industry, as well as perfecting various links such as artificial intelligence, communication networks, etc. Once humanoid robots are practical and mass-produced, they will quickly become indispensable tools in production and life, with a quantity expected to surpass that of humans, driving the rapid development of the entire industrial chain. After the widespread adoption of humanoid robots by developed countries, it is expected to offset the disadvantages of an aging population and labor shortages, thereby accelerating the realization of re-industrialization and widening the significant gap in labor productivity with developing countries that still rely on human labor. From a global perspective, major powers have elevated the development of the humanoid robot industry to a national strategic level, and the humanoid robot industry is bound to become an important stage for future national industries and technological competition.

2. The conditions and industrial foundation for the development of humanoid robots in China are becoming increasingly perfect.

China attaches great importance to the humanoid robot industry, and has enacted a series of policies and plans from the central government to local authorities to accelerate the industry layout. Under policy incentives, China’s complete supporting industrial chain for humanoid robots is accelerating formation, and key links are gradually being domestically substituted. Domestic enterprises’ innovative R&D capabilities are constantly strengthening, presenting a trend of vigorous development, and a batch of domestically produced humanoid robot products have been successively launched. In recent years, China’s rapidly developing new energy vehicle industry has also provided excellent test scenarios for humanoid robots, accelerating the commercial application of humanoid robots.

(1) The support policy system and industrial layout are constantly improving, promoting the accelerated development of the humanoid robot industry

China attaches great importance to the development of the humanoid robot industry, and has put forward a series of policies and plans. In 2021, the “14th Five-Year Plan” outline will elevate the robot industry to an important position. The “14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Robot Industry”, formulated by fifteen departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission, clearly states that by 2025, China aims to become a global source of robot technology innovation, a gathering place for high-end manufacturing, and a new highland for integrated applications. The “Guiding Opinions on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots”, issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2023, proposes that by 2025, the innovation system for humanoid robots will be initially established, and a number of key technologies such as “brain, cerebellum, and limbs” will achieve breakthroughs; by 2027, the innovation capability of humanoid robot technology will be significantly enhanced, its comprehensive strength will reach world advanced levels, the industry will accelerate its scale development, and related products will be integrated into the real economy, becoming an important new engine for economic growth. Provinces and cities are also accelerating the layout of the humanoid robot industry: Hangzhou aims to achieve a breakthrough in the industrial output value of the intelligent robot industry chain exceeding 50 billion RMB by 2026; Shanghai regards the intelligent robot industry as a key investment area in the “Three-Year Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of the Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai (2023-2025)”; Policies have also been successively introduced in Shenzhen, Beijing, Hubei, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Shandong, Anhui, and other places, explicitly proposing the development of the humanoid robot industry.

The industrial chain system of humanoid robot is accelerating, and key links are gradually being replaced by domestic products.

The complete supporting industry chain for the development of humanoid robots in China is accelerating. In terms of “brain”, China’s artificial intelligence industry is in a period of rapid development, with continuously enhanced technological innovation capabilities, and relatively complete basic foundations. As the hottest technology field at present, big models are a new investment trend for domestic entrepreneurship. Research institutes, universities, technological giants and start-up enterprises are all laying out big models, presenting a “battle of hundreds of models”. At the same time, companies such as Ubtech Robotics, Fourier Intelligence, Zhijing Intelligent, iFlytek and GalaxyCore have already accessed artificial intelligence big models. Huawei’s PanGu big model 5.0 version has also been implanted in the embodied intelligent carrier “KuaFu-MY” humanoid robot.

In the aspects of ‘cerebellum’ and ‘limb’, key links such as high-performance chips, sensors, controllers, servo systems, harmonic reducers, etc. are accelerating the realization of domestic substitution. Some domestic substitution performances of components are approaching the international advanced level, and the cost-performance advantages are obvious. In the motor field, there are well-known companies such as Bostock, Laisai Intelligent, Hechuan Technology, Mingzhi Electric, Zhaowei Electromechanical; in the reducer field, there are Green Harmonic, Kefeng Intelligent, Elite Technology, Shuanghuan Transmission, Haozhi Electromechanical and other manufacturers; in the six-dimensional force sensor field, Yuli Instrument, Kunwei Technology, Xinjingcheng are gradually gaining market discourse power; in the high-end servo system field, AOPU Optoelectronics is breaking the international leading enterprise’s monopoly on middle and high-end grating encoders. In recent years, the rapid development of China’s new energy vehicle industry has given China a leading position in motors, electronic controls, batteries, and other aspects. At the same time, the miniaturization, safety, and energy density improvement of components also allow a large number of components to be reused in humanoid robots. UBTECH Walker S, Fourier GR-1 humanoid robots have a domestication rate of components from chips to parts exceeding 90%. The domestic substitution of key components will further reduce the production cost of humanoid robots in China and accelerate the practical application process of humanoid robots in China.

(3) The innovation and research and development strength of enterprises continue to strengthen, presenting a thriving trend.

China’s humanoid robot enterprises are showing a trend of a hundred flowers blooming. UBTECH, Unitree Technology, Fourier Intelligence, Kepler, Leju and other companies have developed rapidly, and technology giants such as Xiaomi and Huawei have also entered the game. A number of domestic humanoid robot products such as UBTECH Walker S, Unitree H1, Fourier GR-1, and Zhiyuan Expedition A1 have been launched one after another. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao have become the three major highlands for the development of China’s robot industry, and there are more than 25 enterprises with humanoid robot capabilities. According to the “Humanoid Robot Technology Patent Analysis Report” released by the People’s Daily Online Research Institute, as of the end of May 2023, China’s humanoid robot patent applications ranked first in the world, and the concentration of humanoid robot patent applications was 20% to 30%. This shows that among humanoid robot enterprises, the technology competition is fierce and the development vitality is strong.

(4) The super-large-scale market harbors various real-life application demands, accelerating the commercialization of humanoid robots.

Industrial manufacturing, commercial services, and family companionship are the three major commercial application scenarios for future humanoid robots. Relying on the various segmented niche scenes hidden in China’s large-scale market, China’s humanoid robots have taken the lead in stepping out of the laboratory, collecting real-life scene data, upgrading and iterating humanoid robot products, and laying the foundation for large-scale commercial application in the future.

In the field of industrial manufacturing, the automobile production process has a large number of assembly, handling, quality inspection and other segmented scenes, providing ideal test scenarios for the commercial application of humanoid robots. In recent years, China’s new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly, and under the support of 5G+ industrial Internet, digital twin technology, it has built highly digitized production lines, which are extremely suitable for testing the large-scale application of humanoid robots and collecting real data. UBTECH Walker S, INNFOS R&D A1 and other models of robots have already started “training” and working in the automobile final assembly workshop.

In the field of commercial services, the hot areas of smart cultural and tourism, as well as express logistics industries, create numerous application scenarios for commercial robot services. The Chengdu Humanoid Robot Innovation Center has developed the world’s first generative digital human-robot for the service of cultural and tourism exhibitions. The Zhongke Source Code (Chengdu) Service Robot Research Institute has also launched the country’s first physically intelligent robot based on logistics scenarios, which is applied in scenarios such as warehouse logistics sorting and building express sorting.

In the field of family companionship, in recent years, the aging trend of the population in our country has become increasingly obvious, and there is a long-term shortage of nursing staff. The field of elderly care has become another scene for the accelerated commercial application of humanoid robots. For example, Leju Robot is promoting the application of humanoid robots in the field of intelligent health and care with intelligent companionship, social interaction, inspection, and monitoring as the entry point.

3. Promoting the development of humanoid robot industry will bring new impetus and new opportunities for economic development.

The future demand for humanoid robots is huge, with the overall market size exceeding that of automobiles, and will drive the rapid development of the upstream supporting industrial chain system, bringing development opportunities for domestic replacements of key components and core technologies. Special large models for humanoid robots will also see rapid development and become a key area of ​​development for the new generation of “AI+”. Humanoid robots will ultimately empower various industries, playing an important role in industrial production, life services and other fields.

The number of future humanoid robots will far exceed that of cars, and the market size will rise rapidly.

The rich application scenarios of humanoid robots in the future production and life will make their market demand extremely huge. Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes that the popularity of humanoid robots will be 10 times the popularity of automobiles, and eventually the number is expected to surpass that of humans, reaching 10 billion to 20 billion units. Marketsand Markets predicts that by 2027, the global humanoid robot market will reach 17.3 billion US dollars, with a compound growth rate of 63.5%, and the market will develop broadly. The International Association of Robotics predicts that from 2021 to 2030, the global humanoid robot market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 71%. According to the “Humanoid Robot Industry Research Report” released at the first Chinese Humanoid Robot Industry Conference held this year, it is predicted that by 2024, the market size of Chinese humanoid robots will reach about 2.76 billion yuan, and by 2029, the market size is expected to expand to 75 billion yuan, accounting for 32.7% of the global market; By 2035, the market size of Chinese humanoid robots is expected to reach 300 billion yuan.

(2) The rapid development of the supporting industrial chain system brings development opportunities for domestic substitution.

Humanoid robots are the culmination of advanced manufacturing. The development of the humanoid robot industry will drive the common development of high-end industries such as machinery, electronics, sensors, software, communications, and artificial intelligence. For example, if the sales volume of Tesla Optimus reaches one million units, the market space for upstream linear joint assemblies and rotary joint assemblies will exceed 50 billion yuan; the market space for torque sensors, planetary roller screws, harmonic reducers, etc. will exceed 10 billion yuan.

From the perspective of specific components, the domestication rate of key components of humanoid robot actuators, such as ball screws, reducers, motors, and other high-end products, is relatively low, especially for products such as planetary roller screws, hollow cup motors, and six-axis force moment sensors. For example, in 2023, the domestic market share of Chinese planetary roller screws is only 15.09%. In terms of motors, according to a research report from Zheshang Securities, the global frameless torque motor market is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan by 2029, with the downstream market for humanoid robots accounting for 73%. In terms of sensors, GGII predicts that by 2030, the global force sensor market in the field of humanoid robots will reach 32.8 billion yuan, with the market size of six-axis force sensors in the field of humanoid robots reaching 13.8 billion yuan. In terms of ball screws, Huaxin Securities believes that by 2030, the value of planetary roller screws used in humanoid robots will be 22.96 billion yuan, with a compound average annual growth rate of 154.1%. The future market space for humanoid robots, which is worth hundreds of billions, will provide development opportunities for relevant companies in the industry to make large-scale efforts in domestic substitution and catching up with international leading enterprises.

(3) Large models of humanoid robots have become a new development hotspot, giving rise to related supporting needs

Specialized large-scale models are the key driving force for the future development of humanoid robots. Natural language models are no longer sufficient to meet the needs of humanoid robot development. It is necessary to develop multimodal large-scale models with broader modal coverage, stronger modal connectivity, and strong scalability in order to break through the limitations of single modality and effectively deal with complex real-world scenarios, and truly become the ‘brain’ of humanoid robots. Therefore, emphasizing the physical presence of intelligent agents in real physical environments and embodied intelligence through direct interaction with the environment has become a new direction for the development of the current ‘new generation of artificial intelligence+’. Many institutions at home and abroad are organizing the development of large-scale models dedicated to humanoid robots, endowing humanoid robots with key capabilities such as language understanding, scene cognition, and motion planning through multimodal large-scale models, enabling robots to achieve high adaptability and interaction capabilities in complex environments. For example, NVIDIA has released the world’s first humanoid robot universal base model, GR00T; Chengdu Humanoid Robot Innovation Center has also developed the first domestic humanoid robot task generation model based on visual diffusion architecture, R-DDPRM.

Training embodied intelligence requires the construction of datasets and training ground supporting systems. Data is the future soul of humanoid robots, and the lack of large-scale data at present is the main pain point hindering the progress of embodied intelligence, as well as the main obstacle to the practical landing of humanoid robots. Unlike training traditional large models with abundant data resources, the real data resources required for training embodied intelligence are relatively scarce and difficult to collect. Some companies have to use the approach of ‘a small amount of real data + a large amount of synthetic data’ for training. Therefore, it is crucial to construct datasets and training grounds, and high-quality, diverse real data becomes the core element determining the development speed of humanoid robots. The training ground for humanoid robots, as an important infrastructure for the production of large model data and the realization of data scaling, will become a key focus for new infrastructure development in various regions, empowering the entire humanoid robot ecosystem.

(4) Humanoid robots empower thousands of industries, bringing tremendous productivity improvement

Humanoid robots will be transformed into ‘productive tools’, supporting a rich application scenario system and accelerating the development of new productive forces.

In the industrial field, humanoid robots can serve as a supplement to technical workers, sharing dangerous or tedious tasks, greatly improving production efficiency, significantly reducing the demographic dividend, the increasingly serious trend of aging, and the burden of enterprise labor costs under the background of rapidly rising labor costs. According to the practical test in the factory, although the current efficiency of humanoid robots in automobile factories is about 20% of manual labor, through optimization in the next 1 to 2 years, their work efficiency will increase to 100% of manual labor, and they can surpass manual labor in comprehensive efficiency by working 24 hours non-stop.

In terms of practical applications, humanoid robots have rich application scenarios in cultural tourism, medical care, elderly care, and family fields. In the field of elderly care, according to the report of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the market size of elderly care robots in China is expected to be about 7.9 billion yuan in 2024, and it will grow rapidly at a compound growth rate of about 15% in the next 5 years. It is expected that by 2029, the market size of elderly care robots in China will reach 15.9 billion yuan. In family life, humanoid robots will be an essential tool for every family. The results of the second national time use survey published by the National Bureau of Statistics show that the average daily time spent by Chinese residents on unpaid labor is 2 hours and 42 minutes, of which the time spent on housework is 1 hour and 26 minutes, exceeding the time spent on fitness and leisure activities. In addition, the time spent on household chores by women is more than twice that of men. The entry of humanoid robots into families will greatly save people’s time spent on household chores, allowing them to invest more time in learning and leisure.

Four, improve the supporting system construction, activate the innovative development momentum of humanoid robot industry

To activate the innovative development momentum of the humanoid robot industry, it is necessary to deepen the reform of the scientific and technological system, promote industrial integration, and improve the basic conditions for industrial development. In the future, especially during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, it is necessary to further promote the construction of application scenarios, enhance the industry’s support capabilities, deepen international exchanges and cooperation, improve the governance system, cultivate and strengthen the innovative main bodies of enterprises, and construct a technical innovation system for the manufacturing of humanoid robots.

(1) Implement major initiatives to promote the integration of industry, humanoid robots, and artificial intelligence

One is to promote the construction of application scenarios. Introduce policies to support and encourage the use of humanoid robots by enterprises, cultivate the market for humanoid robots, make good use of the advantages of China’s huge industrial system and super-large-scale market, promote demonstration and application in special, manufacturing, and civil services, and accelerate the practical application of China’s humanoid robot industry through scenario application, seizing the high ground of the global industrial chain.

The second is to enhance the support capability of the industry. Constructing a pilot platform for the humanoid robot industry chain, pilot public service institutions, enhancing capabilities in engineering development, sample trial production, data simulation, process improvement, etc., and accelerating the engineering, productization, and industrialization of scientific and technological achievements.

The third is to deepen international exchanges and cooperation. Expand the international cooperation space of humanoid robots, promote the international development of the industry, participate in the formulation of international rules and standards, and contribute Chinese wisdom to the global humanoid robot industry development.

Fourth, improve the governance system for humanoid robots. Strengthen the construction of technical standards and norms to ensure that the intelligent design and application of humanoid robots comply with human ethics. Timely formulate ethical guidelines and moral standards that humanoid robots should adhere to.

(2) Implement major reforms to unleash the vitality of the humanoid robot industry rise

To implement the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee on building a system and mechanism to support comprehensive innovation, deepen the reform of the science and technology system, and solidify the foundation for the development of humanoid robot industry.

The first is to strengthen the position of enterprises as the main body of innovation. Cultivate and strengthen the group of enterprises, strengthen the docking service of technology transfer with universities and research institutes, and promote the advanced development of Financial Technology incubation; around core components and key technologies, cultivate scientific and technological enterprises and specialized and innovative enterprises in a hierarchical manner, and create humanoid robot ‘chain leader’ enterprises with ecological dominance and global competitiveness.

Second, build a humanoid robot technology innovation system. Increase support for basic research, support leading companies to lead joint industry-university-research innovation consortiums; accelerate the integration of humanoid robots with Metaverse, brain-computer interfaces, and other cutting-edge technologies, and explore interdisciplinary and cross-domain innovation models.

Thirdly, we will strengthen talent attraction and cultivation. We will increase efforts to cultivate talents in the field of humanoid robots and promote innovative cooperation between industry, academia, and research institutions. We will also enhance the exchange and introduction of high-end talents from overseas and improve the talent service system.

Promoting major projects to solidify the foundation of the development of humanoid robot industry

The first is to build an intelligent “brain”. Promote the construction of Computing Power facilities and basic research in artificial intelligence, develop large-scale models of humanoid robots with international leading level, and enhance environmental perception, behavioral control, and human-computer interaction capabilities.

Second, build a flexible “body” and an agile “cerebellum”. Key technologies and core components such as high-performance chips, motion control systems, planetary roller screws, hollow cup motors, and six-dimensional force and torque sensors are domestically substituted to break through “bottleneck” technologies.

Third, enrich the “soul” of the nourishment. Promote the construction of high-quality data sets and training fields for humanoid robots, build platforms for data collection, governance, and application verification of humanoid robots, accelerate the integration of humanoid robots and real application scenarios by conducting various complex scenarios, and scale up the production of real data required for large-scale humanoid robot models.

(Source: Shanghai Securities News)

Source: Oriental Fortune Network

Author: Shanghai Securities News