1. When will the season of cottage arrive?

I think the cottage season will come soon, here are some key analysis points:

1.1 The period is divided into two stages

· Phase 1: Bitcoin price rises, altcoin price falls (Bitcoin market share increases).

· Stage 2: Bitcoin broke through the historical high, and the altcoins began to enter a rapid rise phase.

From the figure below, we can see this rule more clearly:

At this stage, we started accumulating altcoins when the total market value of altcoins is at a low point in the range. I believe that the price of altcoins will break through new highs like Bitcoin.

Phase 2 has been launched now!

For more details, please see: link.

1.2 Capital Flow Law

The start of the bull market can be traced back to the end of 2023, when Bitcoin hit bottom and rebounded, returning to the range and rising to the previous high, while altcoins depreciated against Bitcoin, increasing Bitcoin’s market share.

When Bitcoin breaks through historical highs (the current stage), funds begin to flow into high market cap altcoins. Looking at the Total 3 chart (the total market cap of the top 100 altcoins excluding BTC and ETH), although it is currently driven by high market cap coins like XRP, the performance of mid and small market cap coins is also catching up.

In the end, funds from Bitcoin and large-cap currencies will gradually flow into small and medium-cap altcoins.

As market sentiment rises, investors will become greedier and start chasing small and medium-sized market value altcoins. I expect ‘other’ medium market value altcoins to reach new highs. The real altcoin season is still ahead.

1.3 Bitcoin Market Dominance

There is a similar pattern in every cycle: when Bitcoin’s price breaks through the previous high and reaches a new high for the first time, its market share begins to decline.

Currently, the market share of Bitcoin has broken a rising trend that has lasted for over 800 days.

1.4 ETHBTC Trend Analysis

In each cycle, Ethereum tends to perform weakly in the early stages (rising with Bitcoin but still below its previous high), and then begins to rebound when Bitcoin stabilizes above its previous high.

The current cycle is no exception. It is expected that more funds will flow into Ethereum ecosystem tokens, on-chain utility tokens, and high-risk tokens. Once ETHBTC truly enters an upward trend, the performance of these tokens will be even more impressive.

ETHBTC Chart Analysis

Currently, ETHBTC has retraced and re-claimed the lower boundary of the range.

Unable to break through the resistance level of phase 4 in 2021. In this cycle, can we usher in a ‘super rise’ in phase 5?

If it breaks the current downtrend line, it will end a bear market trend that has lasted for 1100 days.

In addition, 2024 is also an important year for the launch of Ethereum ETFs (exchange-traded funds). I believe that the market still underestimates the potential of Ethereum.

2. Have you missed the opportunity?

As mentioned earlier, the Amsterdam team has accumulated altcoins at the low points of Total 3’s market value over the past 5-6 months.

At the low point of the range, it is recommended:

· Buy at key support level;

· Gradually build positions in the slow oscillating market, rather than chasing after rises;

· Set a clear stop loss point (such as below the range);

· Market fluctuations are smaller, making it easier to hold.

But if you choose to buy after the price has risen vertically:

· You may not have a clear stop loss point. This may not have much of an impact for short-term traders, but for long-term investors, not having a stop loss point will increase risk.

The profit opportunity from the low point to the high point of the range has disappeared, and now the bet is whether the market value of the altcoin can break through the new high.

Buying in the phase of rapid price increase, you will face higher market volatility, and a 20-30% pullback is not uncommon.

So, I don’t think it’s too late for you because:

Bitcoin still has room for growth.

The capital rotation has not yet fully reached the stage of small and medium market cap altcoins (the ‘Others’ chart shows the possibility of reaching new highs), so the most profitable stage has not yet arrived.

· Bitcoin dominance (Dominance) may further decline, while the ETHBTC ratio will rise.

However, please note the following points:

· Understand the stage of the current market cycle.

· Clearly define whether you are entering a currency for short-term trading or long-term investment.

· Develop a clear profit plan.

· Understand that this is a high-volatility phase, with the possibility of a rapid decline of 10%-30%.

Accepting these rapid declines is difficult to predict. If you try to manipulate these corrections, you may disrupt longer-term investment plans.

Regarding the ‘risk’ analysis of entering this stage (rather than entering the past 3-6 months): please refer to this.

3. Advice on How to Enter:

If you missed the accumulation period of the past 6 months, the first thing you need to consider is why you missed it.

It is likely because you are influenced by emotions:

· In a bull market, prices usually rise rapidly with little or no significant and sustained pullback.

Many people miss the opportunity to rise, and when they “fear missing out” and chase after higher prices, the market often enters a period of volatility or rapid decline.

· In the turbulence, they became pessimistic again, ultimately missing the opportunity for rapid growth once more.

The correct strategy is: to gradually build positions during the oscillation or pullback phase, and maintain patience, focusing on the market structure of longer time frames.

Please refer to more content here.

Next comes the specific advice!

Recommendation 1: Stick to spot trading and avoid leverage

Prefer to choose spot trading.

Many people are accustomed to using leverage, but it is actually a trap. Every market fluctuation makes people feel like it’s an “opportunity”, but most of the time it’s not. You don’t need to rush to operate. Leveraged trading will ultimately cause most people to lose money or even zero out - don’t let it ruin your bull market gains.

Stick to spot trading so that you won’t be unable to hold positions due to excessive leverage, or worse, forced liquidation and miss market opportunities.

Believe me, stay away from leveraged trading.

Suggestion 2: Don’t chase after rising prices, focus on the pullback

Most people trade based on emotions and only buy when the price rises (green candle), because it makes them feel ‘safe’.

But the market won’t go straight up, even in a bull market there will be pullbacks:

· Daily fluctuations: a small pullback of a few percentage points.

· Every few weeks: 10%-30% panic downturn.

If you buy in when the price is rising, you are likely to sell out of panic when there is a pullback.

· Feel at ease when buying during a rise.

· Feel relieved when selling in a downturn.

But the correct strategy is:

Buying may scare you, but it’s the right time.

· Selling may make you feel reluctant, but it is a rational choice.

If you can operate against the trend, build up positions on the pullback, and boldly buy during panic selling, you will have an advantage over most people.

Suggestion 3: Build positions in batches and operate with patience.

So far:

· Only choose spot trading.

· Don’t chase after price increases, but build positions during pullbacks.

In addition, you don’t need to invest all your funds at once.

You can choose to gradually build positions. If the price falls by 5%, you will invest all funds in altcoins at once. If there is a larger market adjustment (such as a 10%, 20%, or even 30% decline), you may panic and sell.

The correct strategy is: when the price drops by 5%, invest 10% of the funds first. This way, when larger pullbacks occur later (such as 10%, 20%, or 30%), you can continue to gradually increase your position, rather than being shaken out by market fluctuations.

What if the callback does not deepen further? It’s okay. Don’t invest all your funds at once because you’re afraid of missing out. This may force you to leave during a deeper callback.

There will be more opportunities for pullbacks and positions in the future.

In a highly volatile market, you cannot perfectly grasp every fluctuation. You don’t need to buy at the lowest point or sell at the highest point, just focus on long-term gains.

Suggestion 4: Control Risks and Avoid Excessive Adventure

You may have heard of legendary stories of making millions by “going all-in”, but excessive risk-taking can greatly test your psychological resilience. If your position is too heavy, you may be forced to sell out of panic during market downturns, ultimately missing out on even greater opportunities.

Tip 5: Make a plan that suits you

Do not directly apply someone else’s plan, but instead create a clear investment plan based on your own goals and risk tolerance. This plan should include risk management and multiple contingency plans in case the market trends do not align with expectations.

A good plan can help you stay calm in market fluctuations, avoid making wrong decisions due to panic or excitement, and help you gradually achieve profitable exits.

The following are several points that need to be clarified in the plan:

· Keep it simple: Don’t make the plan too complicated.

· Focus on High Time Frame (HTF): Focus on the major trend, not short-term fluctuations.

· Clearly defined goals:

• What market signals do I hope to see?

-Which tokens do I want to invest in? Why choose them?

• How much capital do I plan to invest?

• In which price ranges should I gradually establish a position?

• When do I exit?

You can refer to this tweet for how to create a periodic profit plan.

Suggestion 6: Focus on the long-term framework and keep the strategy simple

· Focus only on the long-term framework (HTF) charts to avoid being disturbed by short-term fluctuations.

· You only need to focus on the key price range and market structure, without paying too much attention to market noise.

· Keep the strategy simple and clear.

Even a simple strategy can give you an edge in the market:

Most people use leverage trading, but you don’t.

· Most people chase after high prices (green candle) when they rise, but you don’t.

· Most people don’t have a clear profit plan, but you have your own plan.

· Most people buy or sell in one go, but you choose to gradually build and exit positions.

Before sharing my list of altcoin observations, let’s talk about an important point:

Viewpoint:

In the current market, altcoins (“Others” market value) are expected to reach a new high and attract funds from Bitcoin and mainstream currencies.

Currently, the market value of ‘Others’ has slightly exceeded the median line of the range and is gradually approaching the high end of the range.

It should be noted that the upper bound of the range is usually a strong resistance area, and there may be multiple tests and pullbacks before a breakthrough. This point is often easily overlooked when the market is strong (such as today’s all ‘green’).

Looking back at Bitcoin’s performance before breaking through the high range: it went through multiple pullbacks and oscillations before successfully breaking through.

Even in the previous bull market cycle, during the start of the altcoin season, the market cap chart of ‘Others’ also experienced a significant 30% pullback before breaking through the upper range.

So please remember the following points:

Before the comprehensive cottage season arrives, the market may experience a significant pullback, and there may even be weeks of decline.

But don’t try to predict these pullbacks and wait, instead take the following strategies:

· Slowly build positions in batches: gradually increase positions, do not invest all funds at once.

· Avoid using leverage: Leveraged trading carries a high level of risk and may result in forced liquidation.

· Buy on Dips: Focus on building positions when the market is falling (red candles) instead of chasing prices when they are rising (green candles).

Stay patient and follow a long-term strategy, and you are more likely to profit from market fluctuations.

1.$SOL

SOL is currently a strong performing high market cap coin, exhibiting clear advantages in this round of market cycles - a worthy choice to pay attention to.

From the perspective of market cycles, I expect SOL to break through the current range high and have significant potential for an upward movement when the price enters the ‘discovery phase’ (i.e., when the price reaches a new all-time high and the market explores its true value).

At present, it is advisable to consider building positions in batches at the current stage, but it should be noted that the current price is in a high resistance area of the range. If you buy all at once, it may be difficult to bear the possible price correction of 10%-30% in the future. Therefore, it is recommended to strictly follow the plan of building positions in batches.

In addition, it is recommended to use spot trading to avoid leverage. Here is my trading strategy:

· After waiting for the price to break through the high end of the range, start with a small position.

If the price continues to rise and stabilizes at a high level, you can continue to add positions in batches.

· If the price falls below the range and then breaks through again, it is another opportunity to add to positions.

· If the price retraces to the previous range of volatility, it can also be a time to build positions in batches.

· Consider adding positions when the price rebounds after a correction and breaks the short-term downtrend line.

In short, clear response plans should be formulated for all possible market trends, and positions should be gradually built through spot trading.

!

2. $BLUR

BLUR is a rather special currency. Earlier this year, it failed to hold the range low of stage 4 (that is, the support failed in the low range area), which may be due to the overall sluggishness of the NFT market at that time.

Now, the NFT market is recovering. Opensea may launch its own token, while Magic Eden’s token will also go live next week.

With the push of these positive events, combined with the current market and chart performance, BLUR may receive renewed market attention.

My main observation point is whether there will be an opportunity to open a position when the price regains the low of the range (marked by the arrows on the chart).

If the market falls again, you can also try to build a position at the low end of Stage 3.

However, for me, this currency is more suitable for short-term trading rather than long-term holding.

3. $MEME

Even ordinary investors have heard of the investment cycle of Meme-themed projects. It is hard for me to imagine that a token called ‘MEME’ would not attract widespread attention from the market after being listed on all the top exchanges.

The price structure of this token is very perfect and is currently in stage 3. I will wait for the price to clearly break through and recover the key position before entering the market.

In addition, the token is also associated with a large NFT series. With the recovery of the NFT market, the implementation of the $ME incentive plan, and the potential launch of the Opensea token, all of these may bring further upward momentum to it.

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4. $ORAI

$ORAI is a veteran AI token. Last week, it successfully reclaimed stage 4 (orange zone) in the short-term market structure, so I bought some positions again.

If the price retraces to this range again, I will continue to add to my position.

In addition, I also set a price alert, which will serve as a new entry signal when it breaks above the macro range low point.

5. $TIA

I have been holding it since TIA recaptured and retested the low range.

Currently, it is attempting to break through the current price structure. I believe that if the price forms a clear breakthrough above the gray area, the subsequent pullback will be a good opportunity to add positions.

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