The RWA value of the gold concept is worth following AI zone pullback significantly.

The concept of RWA is hot, while AI and DEP encountered a major impact after the release of DeepSeek.

Summary of the cryptocurrency market

1. The concept of RWA is starting to heat up, with FMG RWA Index YTD return at 8%.

2. Influenced by TRUMP’s bloodsucking and Deepseek, the Web3 AI and the DePIN sector containing computing power have experienced a significant pullback;

3. The initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States have risen, providing the Federal Reserve with room to pause rate cuts; by 2025, the integration of Web3 and traditional finance will deepen further.

1 Market Overview

1.1 FMG RWA, AI Index Analysis

In 2025, among the many indices monitored by FMG, the RWA Index performed well with a YTD return of 7.63%, mainly due to the strong rise of Mantra at the beginning of this year. Mantra is an RWA Layer1 that combines real-world assets. On January 9th of this year, MANTRA announced the tokenization of $1 billion RWA assets for the UAE real estate company DAMAC, which had previously been mentioned by Trump at a press conference and is investing $20 billion in data centers in multiple states in the United States.

RWA initially expanded its encrypted products around assets such as US Treasury bonds and private credit, but it is now gradually moving away from the purely financial direction. The tokenization of commodities has become an important trend in the RWA market, with real estate being a sector with deeper integration with RWA, and another important sector being gold. Gold, as one of the most stable assets globally, the total market value of the current gold token market has reached $1.05 billion. FMG also attaches great importance to related projects such as Paxos, Tether Holdings, Comtech Gold, etc.

In addition, the public chain issuing RWA products has also become a focus of market attention, such as Mantra, which has performed well this year.

AI and DePIN Index have seen a large pullback, with a pullback of about 25%.

There are many reasons for this, first of all, from the beginning of pump.fun to the successive emergence of ai16z and Virtuals, the popularity of the AI sector continues to be high, but the funds have not really flowed to the large infrastructure and land-level applications in the AI field, but have been idling on Meme. However, after the emergence of TRUMP, these idling funds were severely sucked and plummeted, although after the fall of TRUMP, the AI sector improved slightly, but the release of DeepSeek before the Spring Festival further hit the AI sector, its ARC market value fell from $600 million to $250 million, and Swamrs fell 90% from $600 million to $60 million.

If the previous popularity of AI Meme to some extent hindered the market’s attention to the AI grand infrastructure and practical applications, then the open-source and lower-cost advantages of DeepSeek (with a development cost of $5 million, which is one-thousandth of OpenAI’s $5 billion cost, under the premise of similar product presentation to OpenAI) have brought about a certain “subversion” of the previous market’s understanding of AI, directly leading to the decline of traditional AI stocks. Web3 AI was not spared either, and it had a greater impact on computational AI and DePIN, to the extent that it can be said to have shaken the foundation of current Web3 AI.

1.2 Cryptocurrency Market Data

As of February 14, 2024, the total market value of cryptocurrency was 3.21 trillion, down 4.46% from 3.36 trillion in the first half of January.

BTC Dominance Index: As of February 14th, the current BTC Dominance Index is 59.8%, up 4.1% from 55.7% in the first half of January.

The Shanzhai season index: As of February 14, the current Shanzhai season index is 44, which means that the wealth effect is concentrating towards BTC.

ETF indices

BTC ETF: In the past 15 days, the net outflow of BTC ETF was $1.546 billion.

ETH ETF: In the past 15 days, the net inflow of ETH ETF was 3.73 billion US dollars.

1.3 CPI and other data as well as market reactions to market judgment

U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 219,000 in the week ended Feb. 1, 2025, higher than market expectations of 213,000. Despite the increase, the figure remains at a historically low level, suggesting that the labor market remains robust. On January 30, the Fed’s FOMC meeting was held, at which the Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%. This decision shows that the Fed remains concerned about inflation and employment in the U.S. economy and maintains a cautious monetary policy stance.

On February 12th and 13th, the United States successively released CPI and PPI data, among which the CPI for January in the United States rose more than expected, exacerbating people’s concerns about the continued existence of inflationary pressure, and strengthening the Federal Reserve’s cautious attitude towards easing monetary policy. As for the PPI data, the 0.4% increase exceeded the expectations of economists surveyed earlier, but was lower than the 0.5% increase in December last year after the upward revision. Both of these data further narrowed the expectations of interest rate cuts, and risk assets will face uncertainty in the short term.

The impact of recent U.S. economic data on the Web3 market is complex. Signs of slowing inflation could boost investor confidence and push crypto prices higher. However, solid employment and consumption data could keep the Fed cautious on rate cuts, limiting the upside in the crypto market. In addition, the Fed’s failure to cut interest rates this time means that the cost of financing is still high, which is not conducive to the rise of risky assets such as cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrency market will bear downward pressure in the short term. It is worth noting that Web3 projects are still difficult to finance as the high interest rate environment makes venture capital more cautious. Over the past year, many Web3 startups have scaled back or shifted to other models, such as RWA tokenization or AI+Web3 combination, due to funding difficulties. If the market starts to anticipate rate cuts, it could attract VCs to refocus on Web3 and the crypto market.

Chapter 2, Hot Market News

SoftBank has committed to invest up to $40 billion in OpenAI and has the right to select other co-investors

SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman are reaching a new investment agreement: SoftBank will conduct an exclusive round of financing, committing to invest as much as $40 billion in OpenAI. SoftBank is not expected to provide all the funds alone and has the right to invite other partners to participate in this round of financing. A source familiar with the plan said that OpenAI can approve or veto new investors. It is expected that this round of financing will bring OpenAI’s valuation to $260 billion.

2.2 Ripple continues to be optimistic about the market potential of RWA

Ripple believes that by 2033, the global custody service market is expected to grow from $41 billion in 2023 to over $100 billion. By 2030, it is expected that more than 10% of global assets will be tokenized, including RWAs such as financial instruments (stocks, bonds, ETFs), as well as art and carbon credit. This wave of digital transformation reshaping the custody landscape requires next-generation solutions. The development of RWAs will also bring new use cases:

To issue and custody tokenized securities and RWA or cryptocurrency custody and trading wallets for institutional and retail investors;

Powerful compliance controls and advanced governance framework, providing asset protection;

Become a secondary custodian on the global custodian network to enhance service distribution;

Seamless access to liquidity providers, exchanges, as well as lending and staking platforms.

Three, Regulatory Environment

3.1 Work Plan of the SEC Cryptocurrency Working Group

On February 4, 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released the work plan of the Cryptocurrency Working Group, marking an important transformation in the U.S. in the field of cryptocurrency regulation. This working group aims to bring more clarity to the regulatory framework for cryptoassets, while maintaining support for innovation. Over the past decade, the SEC’s performance in cryptocurrency regulation has often been criticized, largely due to the lack of clear rules and uncertainty over enforcement. The newly formed working group hopes to guide the cryptocurrency industry towards a more mature and regulated future through a more systematic and transparent approach.

The working group will work in a number of areas, including, for example, clarifying whether different types of cryptocurrencies are securities, which is key to addressing other regulatory issues; Provide legal certainty for cryptocurrency projects under specific circumstances through no-objection letters; explore providing temporary exemptions for token offerings and streamlining registration paths (e.g. Regulation A and crowdfunding rules); Compliant cryptocurrency custody solutions for investment advisors and brokers; Clarify whether crypto lending and pledge are governed by securities laws, and formulate relevant rules, etc.

3.2 The U.S. House of Representatives Bipartisan Resolution Calls for Clear Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Regulations to be Established

A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives has introduced a resolution in support of blockchain technology and digital assets. The resolution emphasizes the economic potential of digital assets, the need for regulatory clarity, and the role of blockchain in enhancing transparency and efficiency. It also warns that without clear regulations, the U.S. may lose its innovation advantage and flow to countries with clearer legal frameworks. Following the resolution, legislators issued statements emphasizing the urgency of regulatory action.