Wall Street holds its breath Is tonight's NVIDIA financial report a joy or a worry?

Source: Golden Finance

NVIDIA will release its fourth-quarter earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday, facing enormous challenges.

As the second largest company in the world, NVIDIA needs to prove to investors that there is still strong demand for its next generation Blackwell chips, and they will not be impacted by the DeepSeek AI model.

Last month, DeepSeek sparked concerns among US stock investors, believing that the demand for computing power in data centers may be lower than initially expected, which will lead to a decrease in NVIDIA GPU sales. However, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang believes that the efficiency improvement of DeepSeek will only accelerate the adoption and development speed of AI.

Foreign media data shows that analysts’ average expectations for NVIDIA’s revenue this quarter will increase by 73% to $38.2 billion, compared to approximately $20 billion in revenue for the same period last year.

The following is Wall Street’s interpretation of the upcoming financial report to be released by NVIDIA:

Mizuho Securities: Expects Some “Growing Pains” in the Short Term

Analysts at Mizuho Securities said that while they expect NVIDIA to release an ‘as expected’ financial report, they also anticipate some ‘growing pains’.

Mizuho Securities said in a note last week, “Our survey shows that while DC (data center) revenue in the January quarter was in line with expectations, it is likely to level off in the April quarter as growth remains modest in the near term, given the power/cooling requirements of GB200.” ”

DC refers to NVIDIA’s data center revenue, covering its GPU chip sales.

For SMBC Nikko Securities, the focus is on the second half of the year, as it expects strong growth from Blackwell to offset any revenue losses in the first half.

“We continue to see NVDA leading the industry with its CUDA ecosystem and integrated hardware platform with strong customer relationships,” Mizuho Securities said, adding that it expects major customers Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet to accelerate purchases of Blackwell GPUs later this year.

Mizuho Securities gives NVIDIA an “outperform” rating with a target stock price of $175.

Wade Bush Securities: Expecting Good News

The analyst at Wade Bush Securities said the biggest issue in the upcoming financial report is whether this will be another “$2 billion above expectations, and raise the profit expectation by $2 billion” quarter. The company believes they can do it.

Wade Bush Securities said, “We expect NVIDIA to perform strongly again and ‘clearly exceed expectations and raise expectations,’ which should help alleviate investor concerns as Huang Renxun will explain the significant demand-driving factors brought by Blackwell and AI capital expenditures, which are driving the Fourth Industrial Revolution.”

Wade Bush Securities stated that, according to its channel checks, the deployment of individual AI enterprises did not slow down or change due to DeepSeek. Wade Bush Securities stated, 'No customer wants to ‘lose their place in line,’ as far as we understand, this is the case with NVIDIA’s next-generation chips.

Bank of America: The next catalyst is the GTC Conference

Analysts at Bank of America expect NVIDIA to outperform analyst expectations and anticipate a 60% year-on-year increase in the company’s data center revenue for the calendar year 2025.

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya said earlier this month in a report, “While DeepSeek’s optimization is considered ‘revolutionary,’ so far, there has been no change in spending intentions from Nvidia’s large customers, including Microsoft and Meta.”

Arya said that the optimization of hardware and software is a “key part of computation”, so he expects that the efficiency improvement of DeepSeek will not lead to a decrease in company sales.

Looking beyond the financial report, Arya said that NVIDIA’s GTC conference in March will be the next important catalyst. By then, investor attention on NVIDIA may shift from Blackwell to its next-generation products, including Rubin GPUs and autonomous driving robot solutions.

**Bank of America gives Nvidia a Buy rating with a $190 price target. **

Bloomberg Intelligence: Blackwell Proceeds as Planned

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kunjan Sobhani said last week that NVIDIA is likely to meet fourth-quarter revenue expectations and raise first-quarter expectations against the backdrop of significant growth in the Blackwell GPU.

Sobhani said that NVIDIA has overcome some recent supply chain delays and concerns about ultra-large-scale demand, as evidenced by its stock fully recovering from the losses caused by DeepSeek.

“Initial shipments to key customers began in the fourth quarter and will continue into the first quarter of 2026,” Mr Sobhani said. “Increased capex guidance from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services and Google strengthens our confidence in near-term sales.”

Encouragingly, Sobhani said, due to Blackwell’s production growth, Nvidia’s profit margin may “rebound to 70% mid-term” in the second half of the year.