Bitcoin (BTC) continues to dip, temporarily around $74,530 as of May 28. Against the backdrop of global crackdown on prediction markets, Polymarket is weighing “know your customer” (KYC) requirements. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) will launch a real-value transaction trial for its digital cross-border payments project Project Agorá.
Macro Events & Crypto Market Hotspots
1、CoinTelegraph, citing The Information, reports that Polymarket is considering adopting mandatory user verification requirements that better align with “know your customer” (KYC) standards. Previously, access to the prediction market platform was blocked or restricted by multiple countries due to concerns about illegal gambling activities. As of Wednesday, Polymarket has implemented “regional blocking” for 35 countries/regions, restricting residents in these locations from placing orders on the platform. These countries include Iran, Russia, and North Korea—countries that have been subject to sanctions by many countries due to military conflicts.
Polymarket allows users to trade under aliases, which typically prevents the public from knowing their true identities, but it also exposes the platform to potential legal risks due to bets placed on controversial events. For example, when a U.S. soldier was revealed to be a Polymarket user, he had placed a bet on the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, reportedly using confidential information, and ultimately won a $400,000 prize.
2、reports that the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and its partners are about to launch a real-value transaction trial for the digital cross-border payments project Project Agorá. The plan is jointly participated in by the BIS, seven central banks, and more than 40 regulated entities, including the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, as well as JPMorgan Chase, UBS, and Deutsche Bank.
The prototype adopts the concept of a “single ledger,” using blockchain technology to complete transfer and settlement between banks in different countries within seconds with “atomic” transactions. The system retains existing sanctions enforcement and anti-money-laundering screening mechanisms. BIS says tokenization can safely and effectively address the inefficiency problem in wholesale cross-border payments. The Bank of Canada has joined the project, and more private institutions are expected to follow.
News Roundup
1、The U.S. CFTC acknowledges it should not have brought the 2022 lawsuit case against Gemini and jointly applies for exemption from judgment with Gemini
2、Crypto card monthly transaction volume up 230% year over year; cumulative transactions this month reach $7.8 billion
3、BIS to launch a real-value transaction trial for its digital cross-border payments project
4、Giant whale Evaded opens an additional 12,600 ETH short positions; ETH long positions by Huang Licheng face partial liquidation again
5、Vitalik: The intersection between Ethereum infrastructure and AI continues to expand; models need to be optimized for relevant use cases
6、The White House initiates a review of the work to draft rules for U.S. CFTC prediction markets
7、A Google engineer is charged with insider trading on Polymarket using internal search data
8、Garrett Jin increases his BTC long position to 1,268 BTC, worth $94 million
9、Defiance files to launch a China robot ETF
Market Performance
1、Latest news on Bitcoin: <a data-currency='BTC' href='/futures/USDT/BTC_USDT'>$BTC continues to slide further, temporarily around $74,530; liquidations over the past 24 hours were $152 million, with longs being the main liquidated side;
2、On May 27, the three major U.S. stock indexes set fresh closing highs again; capital rotated into healthcare and consumer stocks. Chip stocks, after surging in the prior two days, pulled back. Signals from the U.S.-Iran talks are complex and mixed, and investors temporarily take a breather. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 182.60 points, up 0.4%, closing at 50,644.28; the S&P 500 index rose 1.24 points, up 0.02%, closing at 7,520.36; the Nasdaq index rose 18.55 points, up 0.07%, closing at 26,674.74. After the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a record high on Tuesday, it fell 1.4% on Wednesday.
（Source: Gate）
3、In the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, taking the current 74,504.70 USDT as the reference point: if it drops to around $74,199, the cumulative long liquidation amount exceeds $305 million; if it rises to around $76,662, the cumulative short liquidation amount exceeds $697 million. The short-side liquidation amount is significantly higher than the long side. It is recommended to reasonably control leverage ratios and avoid triggering large-scale liquidations when market conditions change.
（Source: Coinglass）
4、In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflows were $2.08 billion, outflows were $2.29 billion, and net outflows were $210 million.
（Source: Coinglass）
5、In the past 24 hours, contracts including $CL, $UB, $BEAT, $PLAY, $TA led in net outflows, presenting trading opportunities.
Selected Views from X KOLs
Phyrex Ni（@Phyrex_Ni）：「The U.S. and Iran peace talks are still a back-and-forth process, but judging from the price of WTI, the market now believes the U.S. will definitely handle the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. Not only is WTI down significantly, Brent is also falling sharply. The spread between Brent and WTI is already less than $3.5. Oil prices represent market confidence: only when oil prices fall can we reduce the global inflation problem.」
「Also, according to data from prediction websites, the probability that the U.S. will experience an economic recession this year has dropped significantly, and investors have started to expect that the end of the U.S.-Iran war can ease U.S. inflation and pull the U.S. out of recession fears. After all, in reality, after a ceasefire the U.S. is indeed more tough.」
「The current strategy is still to short WTI at high levels—there’s not much to say about that. At this stage, we first look at $85, and then see whether it will keep ranging later. I think it’s not easy to solve Iran’s problems all at once, but if you deal with Hormuz first on its own, it should be much simpler. And resolving Hormuz would essentially mean resolving the biggest problem for the U.S.」
「Iran is actually not the main issue anymore. Going back to Bitcoin data, lately the sentiment of friends being bearish on $BTC continues to surge. The U.S. stock market trend is still relatively strong. I estimate that only after the Hormuz or Iran issue is resolved will Bitcoin be able to catch its breath—but the data does show that BTC investors are not panicking. At the moment, the main participants in turnover are short-term investors.」
「Of course, due to liquidity, it’s short-term investors who are the main force behind price volatility. But as long as most users are not participating in turnover, and the U.S. doesn’t have new bad news, Bitcoin’s price can still remain more stable.」
Today’s Outlook
1、U.S. Q1 real GDP advance estimate revision (annualized quarterly rate), previous value 2.0%
2、U.S. April orders for durable goods advance estimate (monthly rate), previous value 0.8%
3、U.S. Q1 personal consumption expenditures price index (annualized quarterly rate) revision, previous value 4.5%
4、U.S. April personal income (monthly rate), previous value 0.6%
5、U.S. April personal spending (monthly rate), previous value 0.9%
6、U.S. April personal consumption expenditures price index (monthly rate), previous value 0.7%
7、U.S. seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims last week (in thousands) (through 0518), previous value 209
8、U.S. April new home sales (annualized monthly rate), previous value 7.4%
9、European Central Bank releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting from April
10、St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivers remarks
