Gate Research Institute: Crypto ETF Funds Continue to Net Inflow | Predicted Market Trading Volume Surpasses $133.5 Billion

Summary

• On Wednesday, Bitcoin surged over 7%, Ethereum rose 9%, driving the total crypto market capitalization back above $2.5 trillion.
• In altcoins, EDGE soared 81% after listing on a Korean exchange; MANTRA also surged 54% following the official migration from the old OM token to the new token.
• Controversies over AI military applications escalated, with Palantir criticizing Anthropic’s safety restrictions. OpenAI’s annual revenue exceeded $25 billion, up 230% year-over-year.
• Crypto ETF funds have continued to flow in net positive over the past week, with BTC and ETH jointly boosting market sentiment.
• The predicted market size continues to expand, with total nominal trading volume surpassing $133.5 billion.
• HYPE, ENA, and RED will unlock tokens worth approximately $319 million, $20.17 million, and $5.81 million respectively in the next 7 days.

Market Analysis

Market Commentary

• BTC Price — Bitcoin surged over 7% on Wednesday, lifting the total crypto market cap above $2.5 trillion, with a daily increase of about 5.5%. The rebound was mainly driven by short squeeze dynamics. Previously, due to Iran-related geopolitical tensions, the market experienced a sell-off, and Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates dropped to extreme lows. As geopolitical risks did not escalate further, funds holding short positions began to close, fueling a rapid rebound. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, noted that Bitcoin’s weekly RSI dipped to 26.84, the third-lowest oversold level in history, supporting a technical rebound.
• ETH Price — On Wednesday, Ethereum’s intraday gains approached 9%, breaking above $2,100. From a daily chart perspective, ETH remains below its 100- and 200-day moving averages, both trending downward, indicating a still-weak overall trend. Currently, the price is within a descending channel, with recent rebounds mainly supported by the channel’s lower boundary rather than a trend reversal. Key resistance remains in the $2,300–$2,400 range, which previously served as a pivotal zone. The core support is at $1,800, validated multiple times after previous declines. A daily close above $2,400 could mark the first step toward a structural bullish reversal.
• Altcoins — Over the past 24 hours, the overall crypto market showed strength after a period of concentrated sell-offs, with risk appetite rebounding. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 29, a notable improvement from last week. However, the recent rally appears primarily driven by market sentiment and trading behavior rather than a genuine trend reversal. Among mainstream assets, BTC (+7.04%), ETH (+8.15%), and SOL (+5.09%) led gains, performing relatively well.
• Stablecoins — The total market cap of stablecoins is currently $311.8 billion, up $2 billion over the past week, approximately 0.65%.
• Gas Fees — Ethereum network gas fees have generally remained below 1 Gwei over the past week, with the hourly peak reaching 0.216 Gwei. As of March 5, the average gas fee for the day was 0.196 Gwei.

Hot Tokens

Over the past 24 hours, the overall crypto market has been relatively strong, with risk appetite recovering after recent sell-offs. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 29, a significant improvement from last week. Notably, this rally is mainly driven by market sentiment and trading activity rather than a fundamental trend shift. Leading assets such as BTC (+7.04%), ETH (+8.15%), and SOL (+5.09%) performed notably. Altcoins like EDGE, LMTS, and MANTRA also showed impressive movements, which will be analyzed below.

EDGE Definitive (+81.01%, Market Cap $64.56 million)

According to Gate data, EDGE token is currently priced at $0.17913, up over 81.01% in 24 hours. Definitive (EDGE) is a cross-chain decentralized trading terminal designed to provide advanced trading tools for all traders. It aggregates liquidity from over 100 DEXs across multiple blockchains and supports advanced order types such as limit orders, stop-loss, and TWAP.

On March 4, EDGE was listed on a Korean exchange, providing direct trading channels for Korean traders. Korea’s market is known for high retail participation and active trading, which brought in substantial new buying demand. Additionally, recent sharp declines in Korea’s KOSPI index and strong performance of newly listed altcoins on local exchanges suggest some funds may have shifted from stocks to crypto assets like EDGE, further fueling the rally.

LMTS Limitless (+39.38%, Market Cap $22.54 million)

According to Gate data, LMTS is currently priced at $0.17024, with a 24-hour increase of over 39.38%. Limitless is a decentralized prediction market platform where users can trade on real-world events via simple yes/no contracts. It employs a centralized limit order book (CLOB) for efficient trading, with market contracts as short as 5 minutes.

The recent rise in LMTS is mainly driven by market sentiment and speculation, with high retail trading activity. Its turnover rate reached 0.198, and the 7-day increase accelerated to 51.37%, indicating good market liquidity relative to its market cap. If buying momentum remains above $0.150, it could test the psychological level of $0.200; a drop below $0.120 might trigger a significant correction.

MANTRA MANTRA (+54.70%, Market Cap $84.09 million)

According to Gate data, MANTRA is currently priced at $0.02322, up 54.70% in 24 hours. MANTRA is a security-first RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of complying with and enforcing real-world regulatory requirements. Built for institutions and developers, it offers a permissionless blockchain suitable for regulated applications.

The price increase coincided with the official announcement on March 4 of migrating from the old OM token to the new MANTRA token. Such events often cause re-pricing, token swaps, and attract speculative capital. The 24-hour trading volume surged by 889,623.85%, reaching $225 million, reflecting high market attention.

Key Data Highlights

AI Military Application Controversy Escalates: Palantir Criticizes Anthropic’s Safety Restrictions

Recently, tensions between Palantir Technologies and Anthropic escalated over US military AI policies. Anthropic refused to relax two core restrictions on its Claude model—prohibiting use for large-scale surveillance and fully autonomous weapons—leading to conflicts with the Department of Defense. Subsequently, the government instructed federal agencies to cease using Anthropic’s technology and asked defense contractors like Palantir to gradually remove Claude models. Since Palantir’s Maven AI military intelligence system relies on Claude, this decision forces it to overhaul parts of its AI architecture and seek alternative models, potentially impacting over $1 billion in defense contracts.

This conflict exemplifies the tug-of-war between AI safety ethics and national security needs: Anthropic aims to uphold safety boundaries, while the military and contractors like Palantir prioritize battlefield efficiency and technological availability. In the short term, this may accelerate the military’s shift toward more open model providers (e.g., OpenAI, xAI); long-term, it could trigger a reorganization of AI military supply chains and accelerate strategic divergence among AI firms regarding safety principles and government contracts.

OpenAI’s Annual Revenue Exceeds $25 Billion, Up 230% YoY

On March 5, The Information reported that by the end of February 2026, OpenAI’s annualized revenue exceeded $25 billion. CFO Sarah Friar confirmed in January 2026 and multiple reports that 2025 revenue surpassed $20 billion, a 230% increase from 2024’s $6 billion. However, some investor disclosures suggest that actual full-year 2025 revenue was around $13.1 billion, higher than the initial target of $10 billion but below the peak estimate of $20 billion. After rapid growth mid-2025, the pace slowed in the second half. Media outlets like CNBC estimate mid-2025 annualized revenue at $10–13 billion, with year-end around $5.5 billion.

Notably, Anthropic, a direct competitor, had mid-2025 annualized revenue of about $4 billion, surging to approximately $9 billion by year-end, driven by enterprise clients and products like Claude Code. As of early March, latest annualized revenue exceeds $19 billion. Claude Code’s run rate exceeds $2.5 billion, with over 500 clients spending more than $1 million annually. The gap between Anthropic and OpenAI is narrowing.

Arthur Hayes Warns Rebound Is Illusory; BTC Has Not Decoupled from SaaS Tech Stocks

On March 5, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated that after Bitcoin rebounded above $74,000, BTC (white line) has not decoupled from US SaaS tech stocks (green line). Overall, he considers this rebound a “dead cat bounce,” and cautions that the market has not fully recovered, advising patience.

A dead cat bounce describes a sharp, brief rebound after a significant, sustained decline, which is ultimately illusory and followed by further drops or new lows. Historically, Hayes emphasizes macro liquidity’s influence on crypto. He often highlights Bitcoin’s role as a global liquidity indicator, especially during monetary policy shifts or macro events (e.g., US elections, budget negotiations, Treasury refinancing), where Bitcoin tends to react ahead of traditional markets. Despite short-term bearish signals, Hayes’s long-term view remains unchanged.

This Week’s Focus

Crypto ETF Funds Continue to Flow In, Boosting Market Sentiment

Over the past week, crypto ETF funds have shown a clear net inflow. CoinMarketCap data indicates daily ETF net inflows of about $285 million, with BTC ETFs adding approximately $155 million and ETH ETFs about $130 million. After recent volatility, funds are returning to crypto-related ETFs, reflecting increased institutional risk appetite and sustained demand for major crypto assets.

The ETF inflow trend remains positive. Over the past 7 days, net inflows totaled about $664 million, maintaining total assets under management (AUM) at approximately $105.2 billion, with BTC ETFs at about $92.37 billion and ETH ETFs at around $12.83 billion. Institutions still predominantly favor BTC products, but ETH ETF holdings are rising, indicating growing institutional interest in Ethereum’s long-term value.

Market Sentiment Remains in Fear Zone, Crypto Fear & Greed Index Rises to 29

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently at 29, still in the “fear” zone but notably improved from last week’s extreme fear levels. Over the past week, the index dipped as low as 16, indicating “extreme fear,” reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid price volatility and macro uncertainties.

However, the index has begun to recover, suggesting market sentiment is gradually improving. Typically, in fear or extreme fear zones, markets are characterized by high uncertainty, but such conditions can also signal a potential re-evaluation of risk assets. Overall, the crypto market remains in a sentiment recovery phase, with investor caution still prevalent.

Predicted Market Size Continues to Grow, Total Nominal Trading Volume Surpasses $133.5 Billion

Latest data shows that on-chain prediction markets continue to expand. The total predicted nominal trading volume has reached approximately $133.55 billion, with a total trading volume of about $72.85 billion across over 542 million trades and around 2.8 million participants. The prediction market ecosystem is maturing, with high user activity and substantial capital.

Polymarket remains the dominant liquidity provider, with a cumulative nominal trading volume of about $58.75 billion, significantly ahead of others. Kalshi ranks second with about $47.43 billion and leads in open interest at approximately $510 million. The market shows a clear concentration of liquidity and users in top platforms, indicating a highly centralized structure.

Weekly Funding Roundup

According to RootData, from February 26 to March 5, 2026, 13 crypto and related projects announced funding rounds across various sectors including trading infrastructure, institutional liquidity networks, and digital asset services. Highlights include:

ARQ

Announced on March 4, raising approximately $70 million, led by Sequoia Capital with participation from Founders Fund and others. ARQ is a crypto financial infrastructure project targeting institutional markets, building a trading and liquidity network connecting traditional finance and digital assets. It aims to improve efficiency and security for institutional investors engaging in crypto.

Crossover Markets

Announced on March 5, raising about $31 million in Series B funding, with a valuation around $200 million. Investors include Tradeweb Markets and Wintermute. Crossover Markets is an ECN platform for institutional crypto trading, offering low latency, deep liquidity, and efficient matching.

STS Digital

Announced on February 26, raising approximately $30 million in strategic funding, with participation from CMT Digital and Arrington Capital. STS Digital focuses on infrastructure and investment services for digital assets, promoting institutionalization of the market.

Next Week’s Focus

Token Unlocks

According to Tokenomist, over the next 7 days (2026.03.05–2026.03.12), several major tokens will undergo large unlocks:

• HYPE will unlock tokens worth approximately $319 million, representing 4.2% of circulating supply.
• ENA will unlock tokens worth about $20.17 million, accounting for 2.1% of circulating supply.
• RED will unlock tokens worth approximately $5.81 million, making up 13.0% of circulating supply.

**Sources** - Gate, [https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT](https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT) - Farside Investors, [https://farside.co.uk/btc/](https://farside.co.uk/btc/) - Gate, [https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT](https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT) - Gate, [https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data](https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data) - CoinGecko, [https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap](https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap) - CoinGecko, [https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories](https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories) - DefiLlama, [https://defillama.com/stablecoins](https://defillama.com/stablecoins) - Etherscan, [https://etherscan.io/gastracker](https://etherscan.io/gastracker) - RootData, [https://www.rootdata.com/Fundraising](https://www.rootdata.com/Fundraising) - Tokenomist, [https://tokenomist.ai/](https://tokenomist.ai/) - CoinMarketCap, [https://coinmarketcap.com/etf/](https://coinmarketcap.com/etf/) - CoinMarketCap, [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/fear-and-greed-index/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/fear-and-greed-index/) - Dune, [https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-markets](https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-markets) - Reuters, [https://www.reuters.com/technology/palantir-faces-challenge-remove-anthropic-pentagons-ai-software-2026-03-04/](https://www.reuters.com/technology/palantir-faces-challenge-remove-anthropic-pentagons-ai-software-2026-03-04/) - Theinformation, [https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-tops-25-billion-annualized-revenue-anthropic-narrows-gap](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-tops-25-billion-annualized-revenue-anthropic-narrows-gap) - X, [https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/2029285314225947098/photo/1](https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/2029285314225947098/photo/1)
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