On May 29, Bitcoin slid amid weakness, hitting a low of $72,669, and crypto market liquidations over the past 24 hours nearly reached $924 million. Iranian armed forces launched missiles at multiple targets late Thursday night, and Iranian state media Fars News Agency said the military operation had taken place. This happened only hours after a White House official confirmed to CNBC that the U.S. and Iran had “basically reached agreement on the terms,” with both sides planning to sign a 60-day memorandum of understanding.
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Talks Confirmed: Progress and Iran’s Military Action
A White House official confirmed to CNBC that both sides have basically agreed on the terms of a 60-day memorandum of understanding, and Axios first disclosed that Iran has already granted the necessary approvals. Bessent, at a press conference, confirmed that Trump has drawn multiple red lines, including that Iran must hand over highly enriched uranium, abandon nuclear weapons development, and that the Strait of Hormuz must remain free and open. When asked whether these conditions must be included in a provisional agreement, Bessent confirmed: “If it’s not possible to reach an agreement without these conditions, then why would there be an agreement?”
The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that a ballistic missile launched by Iran late Wednesday night was successfully intercepted by Kuwait. CENTCOM said it was an act that constituted a “serious violation” of the ceasefire agreement, and confirmed that the interception or prevention also applied to five one-way attack drones and the sixth drone launch targeting Abas Port. On the same day, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced sanctions against Iran’s “Persian Gulf Strait Administration (PGSA),” and Bessent confirmed on X: “PGSA is a joke—today the Treasury has sanctioned it.”
Bitcoin Confirms Market Data: $2.6 Billion in ETF Outflows and $924 Million in Liquidations
Data confirmed by Farside Investors shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs lost more than $1 billion in trading over just the past two days, with outflows of $733 million on Wednesday alone. During the current streak of 8 consecutive days of declines, the cumulative outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $2.6 billion.
An analyst at Arctic Digital confirmed to Decrypt on Thursday: “Part of the reason is that ETF funds are seeing massive outflows.” Over the past 24 hours, crypto market liquidations have nearly reached $924 million, including $851 million belonging to long liquidations. Bitcoin is currently down more than 42% from its all-time high of $126,080, and is only 3.9% away from the round-number level of $70,000.
Market Outlook Confirms Data: Probability of Breaking Below $70,000 by Month-End for BTC and Longer-Term Prospects
Data from Myriad (Decrypt’s parent company Dastan runs the prediction market) confirms that the probability of “Bitcoin falling below $70,000 before the end of May” has surged by more than 240% over the past 24 hours and is currently at 27%. The probabilities given by traders on the Polymarket platform are 26%.
Myriad data also confirms that the probability of “falling below $65,000 before the end of May” is only 3%. After excluding the end-of-month deadline, longer-term data confirmed by Polymarket shows that the probability of Bitcoin breaking below $55,000 in 2026 is 54%, while the probability of breaking below $50,000 is 42%. Earlier this year, CryptoQuant confirmed that $55,000 is the “final bottom” of the bear market; the assessment confirmed by a Standard Chartered Bank analyst is that after Bitcoin falls to $50,000, it rebounds to $100,000.
FAQ
What is the current status of the confirmed talks on the 60-day ceasefire memorandum between the U.S. and Iran?
A White House official confirmed to CNBC that both sides have “basically reached consensus,” and Axios confirmed that Iran has approved it. But U.S. Treasury Secretary Behnke confirmed at a press conference that “the two sides are still discussing,” and Trump has not yet given final approval. As of the time of the report, Tehran officials have not confirmed whether Iran’s top leadership has formally approved the agreement.
How does CENTCOM characterize Iran’s latest military action?
CENTCOM confirmed that a ballistic missile launched by Iran late Wednesday night was intercepted by Kuwait, and characterized the action as an act that constitutes a “serious violation” of the ceasefire agreement. CENTCOM also confirmed that all five Iranian one-way attack drone launches and the sixth drone launch targeting Abas Port have been intercepted or prevented by U.S. forces.
How large are the confirmed fund outflows from Bitcoin ETFs in this downturn?
According to confirmed data from Farside Investors, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of more than $1 billion over the past two days, reaching $733 million in a single day on Wednesday; over a streak of 8 days of declines, cumulative outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $2.6 billion.
