On the early morning of June 8, Iran fired multiple rounds of missiles at Israel. This was Iran’s first direct missile attack on Israel since the ceasefire on April 8; afterward, Bitcoin surged more than 2% to about $63,330. Axios reported that on June 7, Trump called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, urging him to “not retaliate.” Goldman Sachs expects that because the labor market is stronger than expected, the Fed will no longer cut rates this year.
Iran-Israel Developments: Trump Steps In to Prevent Israel’s Retaliation
Axios cited a senior U.S. official and an Israeli source familiar with the call details: On June 7, Trump told Netanyahu to hold off on actions because “we are close to getting good results on reaching an agreement”; the U.S. side emphasized that it did not give Israel a “green light” for the airstrike in Beirut. Trump also told the Financial Times: “I’m the decider. I control everything. He (Netanyahu) doesn’t decide.” A U.S. official said: “I don’t see any signs that Israel’s airstrikes are imminent.”
Goldman Sachs Fed Forecast Update
Goldman Sachs’ Fed forecast adjustment for June 8, 2026:
Rate-cut expectations this year: withdrawn (previously expected once each in December 2026 and March 2027)
New expected timing for rate cuts: June and December 2027 (25 basis points each)
Probability of rate cuts in the baseline scenario: lowered from 40% to 30%
Probability of a slight rate hike: raised from 10% to 20%
U.S. unemployment rate forecast for 2026: lowered from 4.6% to 4.4%
Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, noted that inflation “doesn’t seem likely to become self-sustaining,” so the chances of a rate hike remain low. CME FedWatch (June 7 data) shows the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 95.4%.
Other Market Data (June 8)
KOSPI fell 8% at the open, triggering a circuit breaker; Samsung and SK Hynix each dropped 10%. NVIDIA previously announced a multi-year technology collaboration with SK Hynix, but the market said the announcement lacked specific figures and commitments, failing to provide support to the stock price. U.S. stock index futures: Nasdaq futures down 0.6%, S&P 500 futures down 0.4%; WTI crude oil rose 2.8% at Monday’s open, but the gains narrowed afterward as Trump prevented Israel’s retaliation.
FAQ
Why did Bitcoin rebound after the Iranian missile attack?
According to reports, the rebound in the crypto market occurred after Trump clearly blocked Israel from retaliating and reiterated that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching an agreement, easing fears of further escalation of the geopolitical conflict. According to Bitget market data, Bitcoin rebounded more than 2% in the morning of June 8 to about $63,330.
What are the specific reasons Goldman Sachs withdrew its rate-cut expectations for this year?
Goldman Sachs said that U.S. employment growth in May surpassed all expectations, showing the labor market’s resilience, so it no longer expects the Fed to cut rates this year. The timing of the last two expected rate cuts was pushed back: from December 2026 and March 2027 to June 2027 and December 2027, respectively. The probability of a slight rate hike was raised from 10% to 20%, but Mericle said the likelihood of a rate hike remains low.
What is the direct reason KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker?
According to reports, KOSPI fell 8% at the open, triggering a circuit breaker, with Samsung and SK Hynix each down 10%. The main backdrop was concerns about escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict. The market said the multi-year technology cooperation announcement between NVIDIA and SK Hynix failed to boost sentiment due to a lack of specific figures and commitments.
