TD Cowen: The probability that the crypto market structure bill passes this year is only one-third

Gate News message, March 31, in a Monday research note, TD Cowen managing director Jaret Seiberg said that the outlook for the Clarity Act crypto market structure bill is “increasingly bleak,” and that the probability of the Senate advancing the bill and getting it passed by the House is only one-third. The bill is still pending in the U.S. Senate, and Congress has entered a two-week Easter recess. Seiberg noted that a stablecoin yield compromise方案 recently advanced by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks is “not enough” to move the bill forward. The proposal bans paying yield on idle stablecoin balances but allows activity-based rewards when stablecoins are used. Seiberg believes the compromise may leave nobody satisfied: for crypto platforms, it would curb investors’ use of stablecoins for liquidity management; for banks, it would incentivize crypto platforms to use stablecoins for everyday payments, threatening core deposit business. Seiberg said the bill is most likely to move in late July, before Congress’s August recess, when recess pressure may force senators to compromise. He also pointed out that even senators who were previously optimistic are lowering expectations; Senator Mark Warner has cut the probability of passage from 80% to 50% to 60%.