Traders Expect NASDAQ-100 Volatility in H2 2026, Assign 50% Probability to Closing Above 30,000

According to prediction market platform Kalshi data released on July 8, traders expect NASDAQ-100 to remain volatile in the second half of 2026, with market assigning 50% probability of closing above 30,000 points by year-end, 40% probability of breaking 32,000, and 27% probability of reaching 33,000. The odds reflect cooling expectations over the durability of AI-driven market momentum.

UBS noted in a report that following semiconductors' sharp second-quarter rally, markets are reassessing the next phase of AI trading dynamics, with potential leadership rotation as capital may shift from richly valued tech stocks to other sectors.